31 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

I wish I could do that quick trade stuff. Not my forte! You going to re-position short tomorrow on the QQQ's with CSCO leading down?

Once I do my homework and set my criteria, the "fast money" trade is really just a mean reversion trade.

In any case, I'm not sure CSCO carries enough weight to bring the Index down, but I'll re-load tomorrow for sure. I'll be watching that 96.40 line of scrimmage. While it's still nothing more than just a possibility, getting turned back at the line of scrimmage tomorrow would complete the right shoulder of a potential H&S reversal. Volume so far has been consistent with such formation.

[TechMan]

I'll also be watching the Dollar. Something's going on with the rapid range expansion for no apparent reasons. There's that mysterious spike at 2:30am and the gap-down at 8:30am followed by the swift reversal before the opening bell at 9:05am.

Between the overbought Dollar and the oversold Euro, the Yen has stood still for months with no volume and no volatility. I can't recall the last time seeing a compression as extreme as this. So, when it moves, it could be explosive.

The reversals of the Euro and the Dollar plus the breakout of the Yen could have significant impact on the stock market. The Gathering Storm.

Edited by TechMan, 13 August 2014 - 06:27 PM.

[TechMan]

There's that mysterious spike at 2:30am and the gap-down at 8:30am followed by the swift reversal before the opening bell at 9:05am.

That's 2 saves in just 6 hours.

[bigbud]

for Norway I have a likely scenario for a ~2 week ABC bearflag/shoulder, where A-up is not finished. Probably needs some days more, before a deep B-down sabotage, and a last C-up

[TechMan]

Looks like it, bigbud. Believe it or not, Norway has a correlation (20) as high as 0.95 with the SPX. Anyway, added some short positions of individual stocks this morning and bought back QQQ 96.63 Sep put earlier at 1.62. Stop near 97.11. Will add to this position on the cross below 96.45. Volume's pathetic, but intraday volume formations still have the NDX as the weaker link.

[bigbud]

tm when looking at SPX and FTSE, this could be the top of a bounce-B in ABC-correction That would however produce some very extreeme oversold conditions in Norway... so I favor the 2-3 week bounce, to allow Norway to get out of oversold. But I have an open mind...

Edited by bigbud, 14 August 2014 - 12:43 PM.

[TechMan]

Understood, bigbud, thanks. ======= Meanwhile, with that 1:08pm surge (what was that about?) to new ID high, QQQ 7/30-7/31/2014 hourly gap has just been filled. But the NDX 7/30 closing hour low 3968.84 is yet to be reached, neither is SPY 7/30/2014 closing hour low 196.61. I'd like to see them done today or tomorrow rather than leaving those unfinished businesses for next week.

[TechMan]

Applied Materials (AMAT) initial pop after earning is less than 1%. Even at the current AH level 21.50 (1.65%) after 30 minutes of trading, it's just too slow and too small of a bounce for "fast money" trade. Well, too bad. I was well prepared for this one. Meanwhile, the above mentioned NDX hourly gap has also been filled. In anticipation of a pullback tomorrow, I'm keeping all my short positions open. Will reset stops.

[TechMan]

Unusual options action. During the final hour of trading, VIX 15 Aug WK4 call added 61,0000 contracts. That makes it the #1 overall option traded today outside of Aug. expiries.

[TechMan]

Unusual options action.

During the final hour of trading, VIX 15 Aug WK4 call added 61,0000 contracts. That makes it the #1 overall option traded today outside of Aug. expiries.

In addition to the VIX 15 WK4 call, the other 2 of the top 3 index options traded today outside of Aug. expiries are

SPY 185 Sep put
SPX 1950 Sep put