35 replies to this topic

[goldfungus]

apparently the market saw qe as the only thing holding the gold market up! this is going to be a washout. @what price becomes the question.? i see this falling into the 5th, then we see what happens. 1198,1183,1168,1153 for now. it sure looks like the give up phase. discredit all the gold bug advisors.
buckle up, we are going down. we see how far? next up the triple bottom.
dharma

Yep. Very disappointing. End of fiscal year selling for Mutual Funds is the best hope for a 'bounce.'

[dharma]

abe and kuroda announced a radical qe program last night, they are buying bonds. among other financial instruments, as a result the yen tanked against the dollar. gold has broken the triple bottom. it was to be expected. notice how when gold broke through the 1500s it seriously tanked, today it broke and is holding steady. i dont think this is the bottom, but what i see is the leveraged speculators are gone. we are well into the cost of production zone, high cost mines, are going to be forced to shudder, taking supply out of the market. all those juniors are going to be on hold , poor managements will bleed the companies dry. this is the final capitulation phase. this is when explorers run out of money. be in survival mode. 1168,1153,1138,1123 is the death zone and strong support then 1108 . i have lower #s if they are needed.
of course cnbc rolled out currie this morning, the head guy @gs he has been pounding the table on lower gold prices. expecting stronger gdp #s
unlike the 08 V bottom , this one coming up may see gold move sideways for awhile? survival mode
dharma
https://www.youtube....p;v=5k_TLz_f8SU

[dharma]

Peter Boockvar, over at the Lindsey Group wrote in his note this morning: Not willing to admit defeat on his growth and inflation goals and apparently not happy with lower oil prices, Kuroda and 4 other members of the BoJ (4 dissented) decided to go even further with the same policy that was providing him results that he wasn’t happy with. So, instead of expanding the monetary base by 60-70T yen, the BoJ will now do so by 80T yen (an increase of about $90b-$180b). Kuroda in his press conference gave his own Mario Draghi call to arms by saying “we will do whatever it takes to achieve our price target.” OPEC (especially Venezuela) and the US oil shale industry should be high fiving as Kuroda said “on the price front, somewhat weak developments in demand following the consumption tax hike and a substantial decline in oil prices have been exerting downward pressure recently.” The BoJ will also extend the maturities of their JGB holdings (about 7-10 years from 7 years) and will also buy more REITS and ETF’s alongside the expected increase in stock purchases from the Japanese government’s pension fund. Gold is selling off in the kneejerk reaction to the strong $ and very weak yen but I say to all those living in Japan holding your life savings in yen, BUY AS MUCH GOLD AS YOU CAN NOW because it will be the only way to save yourself from the collapse of the yen. dharma\ patience grasshopper miners led the decline, watching to see if they can lead a rally

Edited by dharma, 31 October 2014 - 01:47 PM.

[dharma]

not much out of todays cot. except commercials got even more short the dollar
http://news.goldseek.../1414783987.php

dharma

[dharma]

when gold broke the 1500s the situation was different then, the chinese had made gold purchases more difficult and the indians had slapped a 10% tax and an 80/20rule. today , india and china are importing gold freely. http://www.graceland...014nov3raj1.PNG. also , then there were alot of leveraged players in the gold market . today, the market is fairly washed out . you can look @ any time frame and see the market is oversold. i am not saying the market cant go lower, of course it can, but i dont see it going much lower. and that is what my work continues to show. 1123 is the death zone for this decline. it seems to me this is all part of a bottoming process. the gold market got slammed on friday, w/the announcement of kurodas new program, which debases the yen. this is not gold bearish. japan is the #3 economy in the world. they will be exporting inflation. of course the world deflation right now is holding sway. i have never looked for hyperinflation, i am looking for a 70s style stagflation.
my point here is everyone is looking for golds demise. all the while the facts seem to be that we are in a bottoming process. i dont know how long it takes, but we are well into the process. i am slowly picking my spots now. the miners and silver will lead. of course the question is from what level. the dollar is not a safe haven.
sure it can go higher. it is not a safe haven. next up the swiss vote. i am curious to see how the swiss vote!???
dharma
by the way w/many majors reporting the other day, it is clear that mining the metals right now is not profitable. = supply is going to be less. and the longer the price stays in this zone the worse it will be for the miners. expect less supply!

Edited by dharma, 03 November 2014 - 10:47 AM.

[dharma]

as i pointed out a little while back the fed has not stopped qe http://www.zerohedge...snt-stopping-qe
greenspan said last week, that the feds balance sheet is a pile of tinder. he also, which i posted. is that he thought gold prices would rise.
i dont know when , but it is going to happen. this alice in wonderland phase will end.
dharma

[dharma]

robert miner http://www.ganngloba...f935504c71ad74d

The HGNSI plunged on Thursday by 12.9 points to -9.4%. MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell 3 points on Friday to 37%, and the DSI fell 3 points to just 4% (the record low is 3%).

dharma

[dharma]

falling oil prices , below 80bbl not only puts pressure on frackers, it also puts pressure on the tar sand extractors in canada. this is the effect of prices in the cost of production zone/or lower than cost of production. lets see if this affects canadas economy. in that same vein gold is in and below the cost of production zone. this is going to take supply off the market and will , when this thing finally turns exacerbate prices on the upside. right now the dollar is the best of the fiats and it is being rewarded as such. it is way overbought, but that is what happens. down the road i do think kurodas policies will export inflation from japan. gdxj was encouraging yesterday, today its back to biz as usual. the swiss vote is going to be interesting. pay pal has cut off donations to the yes vote. the banksters are @play. and in play. having a 20% gold backing ,limits what they can do. and it seems they are not happy about it. dharma

[dharma]

it seems folks have lost interest in the sector. which is what is supposed to happen.
crude oil is in its seasonal weak time of year. in october producers switch from making predominantly gasoline to making heating oil. also i wonder if folks are switching from heating oil to ng, which burns cleaner and is much less expensive. http://seasonalchart...ics_rohoel.html
it seems obvious that many explorers will not survive. for many miners we are below the cost of production zone, while they have gotten some relief from falling oil prices, the price of gold has also fallen. so, some miners will be forced to shutter, in order to save cash
sentiment is still negative
HGNSI fell 12.5 points yesterday to -34.4%
MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus unchanged at 38% today
DSI rose 3 points to 7%.
i have a possible bounce next week
in 08 gold was 680 gdx 15.83
today gold 1143 gdx 17
be careful out there the blood is running in the miners streets. even though miners are really really cheap, they could get even more cheap
if however, you can hold for the long term, these prices should reap big returns down the road
dharma

[dharma]

some #s i have 1150.91 as the .618 of the 08 lows to the 11 highs from the 06 lows to 11 highs 1078.43 =.618 1924 is the high 1/2 is 962 the 11 high =1924 the lows were 252 1/2 =1088 these are some target areas dharma