143 replies to this topic

[dharma]

today was the kind of day i have been looking for. gold up a bit , but the miners up more. i dont know or cant say definitively the bottom is in but i can say the miners have been thrown under the bus and then beaten w/ a hammer. those w/patience will be rewarded. now i know its tough to step up to the plate when a wild big unit is throwing heaters. not investment advice. just sayin dharma w/all the commodities on the skids i have to wonder when a default occurs in one of these stocks , export nation, or producer. they are all losing $$$

[dharma]

@ the opening the miners got slammed w/the gold price, now the miners are even on the day i do think we have a correction here for a couple of days. modi is in the uae asking for investment from that country reportedly they have asked him to drop indias 10% duty on imported gold so that may be on the table on the table in this country is rate hikes i had posted a chart of rate hikes and gold prices rising rates=rising gold prices watching for clues. price needs to get over 1130s then 1155 until then its all noise but i do note the action in the miners. it is very constructive also note we are in the indian buying season. dharma

[dharma]

HGNSI was unchanged on Friday at -16.7% MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus rose a point to 36% today DSI rose 3 points to 28%. while the #s are improving they have not swung to the bullish side............... yet dharma

[SilentOne]

HGNSI was unchanged on Friday at -16.7%
MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus rose a point to 36% today
DSI rose 3 points to 28%.
while the #s are improving they have not swung to the bullish side............... yet
dharma

Want to see something like the HGNSI stay down for a while. If it spikes up in the next while, we are seeing just another bear market rally. TWT.

cheers,
john

[dharma]

thanks i dont know what #it takes to get the shorts running but i suspect the bulls will find it oi suggests the shorts have expanded their assaults "...As long as the central banker adheres to a sufficiently aggressive Taylor rule, ZIRP will continue forever, and the central bank will fall short of its inflation target indefinitely," - Steve Williamson, St. Louis Fed, CNBC News, Aug 18, 2015. now this statement is interesting. money velocity has fallen to great depression #s. the banks got windfalls of money from all the qe programs. however zirp has not motivated them to lend it out. if and when rates rise. then profits will motivate them to lend out their qe bounty. on the other side of the coin are the g men. rising rates could cause bond investors to take some loses. and temporarily dry up liquidity for bonds. so where does yellen turn. she has been very vociferous about raising rates. the fed has painted itself into a corner. the rounding top on the broad market has taken form for a correction here. rising rates cut into corporate profits. which brings us back to hotel california. they can check out , but they can never leave. somehow this has escaped the alice in wonderland investor. ok , i can wait for the pack to catch on. meanwhile pass the popcorn. dharma it also looks to me like the correction up in the dollar could have run its course. miners are way undervalued. maund has a good chart on this that i think jg posted miners are the leveraged play on gold modi has been in uae trying to get them to help finance indias growth. i read this this am rajesh imports has received an order from uae based company for rs 1170crore . for gold and diamond studded jewelry next will be to get jaitley to cut the gold tariff

[dougie]

this looks like a b of a abc wave 2 imo

[senorBS]

IMO silver looks like 5 up hourly (worse case) from recent wave 2 or B low, we could see a quick pullback to 15.20 area if we don't keep pushing higher, my take Senor

[dharma]

IMO silver looks like 5 up hourly (worse case) from recent wave 2 or B low, we could see a quick pullback to 15.20 area if we don't keep pushing higher, my take

Senor

thanks for your ideas.silver could have had a 1 and 2 the correction before yesterday , was deep. gold leads @the beginning of a move, then speculative silver @the end of the move. right now gold is pulling the sector higher. above 1150 and more shorts will run for cover. bulls are born from shorts pressing their positions and having their largest positions into the lows .


from 29-32 stocks went down 90% from 11 -15 the miners went down a similar amount. in 32 value investors bought stocks .(i posted a famous piece by john templeton, being interviewed by tony robbins several times. i should have posted it @ the lows, but i didnt think of it till just now) buying good qualitiy miners are a value investment . do your homework lots of it . this sector is tough . but i expect 10 baggers @ the least from here. i go into the explorers only if they have several years of cash on hand. those w/high burn rates are nixed. no cash nixed. you have to research the sector. doing homework is essential. 16 hadik calls the golden year. fiat is about to have an awakening for what it really is.
into resistance
dharma

[dharma]

of course the issue is if you bought in 31 @say 120 w/70% decline . the market declined to 40 on the dow in 32 so you would have sat through a painful 66% decline. welcome to investing. the only one i know of who has not had a big drawdown is paul tudor jones. of course wave 1 up into 37 saw almost a 10bagger. who said this was easy ha dharma the key is not to go broke. if you have resources to fight another battle, then you have a shot

[dharma]

Fred Hickey is one of the smartest analysts and one of the hardest workers I know. The following is an excerpt from Hickey: i grabbed this piece from richard russell There’s so much spin that comes out of Wall Street every day from hucksters who want this long-in-the-tooth stock bull market to continue (forever). The financial media (example: CNBC) is no better, with most of them doing Wall Street’s bidding (it’s who pays them) and cheerleading the Fed’s interventions because they're died-in-the-wool believers in central planning and big government. If I’m correct and the central bankers are failing and likely to lose control, then we should see major turns in fortunes for both stocks (a continuation of the current sell-off) and gold (a huge rally) soon. The paper gold speculators currently have off-the-charts record short positions based on faulty assumptions: that money printing works, that the economy is finally improving and that the Fed will be able to extricate itself from its 0% rates and bloated balance sheet box without blowing up the economy (and world). History is on our side. Money printing never works. The paper gold shorts will be vanquished. miners lead up and down, we are in resistance, and the miners are down while gold is up . i look for consolidation /correction in here. we are in resistance i can see a 5up on gld. but i want to step back and see what the whole up move brings. keep in mind that we are in indian wedding and festival season. that is where the physical buying is coming from. happens every year. they buy in bulls or bears. i think this has the possibility to go up into the end of september. along w/the broad market, the dollar has hit the skids. gold is the leader , which it usually is @ the start of a bull move. the other commodities will join in. silver is the only other metal which has had monetary value. and right here it is being pulled along by gold, it will get a life of its own later in the cycle, then it will lead above ground stocks of silver have dwindled well the financial industry along w/the media has corralled folks into the stock market. we are in crash season. sit tight dharma

Edited by dharma, 21 August 2015 - 10:29 AM.