144 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

Nice call señor
Right you are I. Think

We see, rather be wrong here and reenter long side if we rally, but am worried about a drop below $1000, I am only a trader is this market and now I am out.

Senor

[dharma]

it is a very rare occurance to see gold making lower lows and the miners holding previous low, diverging from gold

i dont have  a crystal ball, but i think the miners are under accumulation. the miners that i bought  are all in profit

so, i am holding my positions for now, i dont know that the 50% in price area beckons gold

what i know is miners offer extraordingary value, so i will give them more room , for now.

i have more cash. 

 

for years every year i would post tony robbins interviewing john templeton near the lows of the great depression

sir john bought 100 shares of 100 stocks. the rest is history. you can google the interview its quite instructive and fascinating

senor has been doing this for a long time. 85%of the people who venture in these waters go broke

there are many many approaches to this game. be comfortable,  be yourself.

dharma

[dharma]

oil stocks are diverging from oil, very early here

we will find out if the miner divergence stays in tact or not.

gold needs to make higher highs-ie above 1190 to reverse the trend.

watching. . they beat up a miner i like i buy. otherwise i wait

after the fact folks come out w/bearish calls.

small specs are in bearish posture, another contrary indicator

lets see what the cots bring

dharma

[dharma]

cots

http://news.goldseek.../1448916502.php

commercials continue to reduce their short positions in gold

small specs net short

commercials very short the dollar

 

gold is now down 6weeks in a row a record for this 4+yr bear move

gold is down about 45% since the high in 11

the last string gold was down 7 weeks in a row, w/the lows occurring in the 5th week

dharma

[dharma]

commercials are now 11k+contracts net short, and this is as of last tuesday, gold subsequently made new lows. for the 1st time in @ least a decade commercials may be net long

here is goldmans take on raising rates http://www.graceland...ec1goldman1.png

sentiment as of yesterday

. HGNSI was unchanged at -30% 

MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus rose a point to 30% 

DSI rose 3 points to 23%

still steeped in the bearish quarter

@ this point we have 6weeks of declining gold prices, which is near the record of 7 straight weeks of declining gold prices(the lows occurred in week 5 of that move) these types of moves usually occur @the end of a move. we shall see

we have jobs #s on friday, gold usually declines into jobs #s . the fed meets on the 16th, which will keep the market muted until then . the bradley is on the 18th

the miners appear to be under accumulation and the charts of some majors look very constructive as do the charts of many miners.   i am selectively in accumulation mode. not making waves and taking time. not sure the lows are in .  the dumb money in the cots are the small specs , they are net short(usually w/leverage) and increasing their stake.  after 4+ years of bear waves 1 and 2 will be more of a building process after the lows are in

the divergence in the miners is a very significant occurrance

dharma

oh yeah imports of gold jewelry are up 12%yoy into this country

yuan now in the basket of currencies of the imf, this is significant. . my guess china lets the yuan slide a bit, not lost on chinese citizens

[dharma]

the situation today is alot different than it was in 13. @ that time the commercials were sporting a large short position the small and large specs were long. the banksters coerced w/the mobster chidambaram, who pulled out the bazooka and raised the tariffs on gold to 10% . thus giving him and the other mobsters in india a fat profit on selling gold . and 1525 went bye bye  .today the small specs are short-=dumb money and the hedgies are increasing their short position. while the commercials are 11+k net short. as we go down here my guess is the commercials work towards being net long. we may have 100 of downside. the miners are sniffing this out and even on days like today are not giving much ground. accumulation!

the market feel is slowly changing.  which i am not saying we dont go down below 1k or whatever. picasso is painting   !shhhhhh dont disturb the master

dharma

oh and china is 5th largest holder of gold

Edited by dharma, 02 December 2015 - 11:10 AM.

[senorBS]

GLD just made a new 4 yr low with GDX so far at another higher low - the key is whether this is just a marginal new low and we rally and miner divergences hold or we go into a gold decline below 1000, there is certainly bullish potential here but I continue to watch

 

PureBS

 

Senor

[senorBS]

GLD just made a new 4 yr low with GDX so far at another higher low - the key is whether this is just a marginal new low and we rally and miner divergences hold or we go into a gold decline below 1000, there is certainly bullish potential here but I continue to watch

 

PureBS

 

Senor

correction: My daily chart showed GLD making a new low but my hourly shows a low at 100.76, not sure which one is correct.

 

Senor

[senorBS]

 

GLD just made a new 4 yr low with GDX so far at another higher low - the key is whether this is just a marginal new low and we rally and miner divergences hold or we go into a gold decline below 1000, there is certainly bullish potential here but I continue to watch

 

PureBS

 

Senor

correction: My daily chart showed GLD making a new low but my hourly shows a low at 100.76, not sure which one is correct.

 

Senor

 

now immaterial with the new gold low, note that there is a "possible" ED (ending diag) from the GLD 104 level, ut if it is correct it needs to bottom at the area of todays lows or a bit lower, if it bottoms should rally sharply, if not it is instead a 3rd wave heading toward 1000,

 

BSing away

 

Senor

[senorBS]

HUGE day IF we keep reversing, did but miners for TRADING position, stop below session lows and ONLY a TRADE for now. NOTE that DXY finally took out the 100.39 previous high, spiking to 100.51 and now reversing off that high - big time stuff everywhere

 

BSing away

 

Senor