144 replies to this topic

[tria]

Further improvement in Gold's COT report as of last Tuesday.

Commercials reduced shorts by about 10K more and just 3K net short.

No big changes in the other PMs.

 

[senorBS]

Further improvement in Gold's COT report as of last Tuesday.

Commercials reduced shorts by about 10K more and just 3K net short.

No big changes in the other PMs.

 

Gracias, muy bullish stuff, excellent week and close charts wise for the miners and gold, looks higher near term and I will worry about the rest later

 

BSing away

 

Senor

[dougie]

when was the last time comms were this flat?

 

Could the recent down be a failed 5th wave? Marking the END of the BEAR?

[johngeorge]

Bob Hoye Interview Friday, December 4th, 2015:  @ 12:30 Bob recommends accumulate liquid gold stocks, not juniors, on down days for a trade in 2016.

[dharma]

too early to make a definitive statement

however

for the 1st time since 01 the commercials are close to being balanced in gold. tht kicked off a 10yr bull market. the dollar had a steep reversal on thursday and continued its fall on friday.  the commercials are lopsided short the dollar.  the miners have found some life, and are not making new lows along w/gold. the miners tend to lead gold.  sure there will be corrections , but the complex looks higher.  there is trepidation around rate hikes w/the media touting that hikes are bearish for gold , so not much may happen until the announcement or thereafter. the 17th is the pi date(4,32yrs) and the 18th the bradley.  right here i am in wait and see mode. the small specs are short and the large specs have added alot of speculative short positions. bull markets begin w/the shorts covering.

sentiment

The HGNSI was unchanged Thursday at -36.7%

. MarketVane’s bullish consensus rose 4 points to 33% Friday, 

the DSI rose 8 points to 31%.

it appears that we are in a stage 1 base building. w/gold in a falling wedge pattern and we have yet to break out of the pattern

the miners appear to have made diamond patterns =indicating a bottom, its entirely possible they are in a deffernt place than the metals

dharma

the board is very quiet , which imo is a good sign. bottoms are marked by confusion.

it will be supportive of gold when more commodities put in bottoms. in the 70s commodities went up together, obviously w/some gaining more than others.  if real estate topped , then i dont think lumber will be the place to be

[dougie]

Was today a deep 4 ? We will know soon enough

[dharma]

lots of possibilities.

i have been thinking about the latest imf decision. they have rebalanced the currency mix. they have added 11%yuan. and they have cut the euro by 16%. this will lower the value of the euro , as banks sell euros to come into line w/the imf. this will have the effect of making their items for sale more competitive. while making it difficult for europeans to purchase  other countries items.  the yuan will increase in value as banks purchase this currency . chinese buy gold as a store of value  the lower price against the appreciating yuan should keep interest lively

 

i look for the exchanges of dubai and shanghai to eventually replace ny and london as the hub for gold trading. india will maintain its position as near the top for gold buying . they imported over 100tons in november, not counting black market imports

i look for the gold market to be mostly under pressure  until the fed is out of the way.  nothing is off the table.  anything is possible. however, the back drop w/the commercials near flat is a very rare occurrance . w/gold making new lows not confirmed by the miners is also a rare occurrance.  these 2 factors are not to be taken lightly.  i am in the mode of buying weakness. but will wait and watch until we are closer to the 16th there is change afoot in this market , but it moves slowly we are building a base. w/gold in a falling wedge pattern

sentiment

HGNSI rose on Friday by 6.7 points to -30%

  MarketVane’s Bullish Consensus fell a point today to 32% 

DSI fell 9 points to 22%.

dharma

Edited by dharma, 08 December 2015 - 11:29 AM.

[dougie]

This down action makes a true impulse up off recent lows look less and less likely

[dharma]

there are lots of possibilities when wave counting

oi has expanded on the decline= the specs have naked shorted gold higher prices, should they occur will force them to cover. its how bulls begin.

we shall see if that can happen

is fxe the etf for the euro currency? thanks

dharma

[johngeorge]

CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)