31 replies to this topic

[barbu]

 

- short term view

- Bear's last hope is 2103 (2103.47 in this chart http://www.chartuplo...85185379746.jpg

- Since the index closed above 0.3236/2098.53, it validates the current sub-wave has good chance move longer than (at least)  0.382/2112.82 in this chart http://forexrainbow....16272688535.jpg

- since this thread is for monthly view, i will find a proper thread to continue the discussion.

 

 

Session high 2104.27

Bull pushes over 2103.47 slightly and then Bear paws are getting energized

chart (11/27) http://forexrainbow....16272688535.jpg

 

 

Chair Janet L. Yellen

At the Economic Club of Washington, Washington, D.C.

December 2, 2015

The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20151202a.htm

 

we must also take into account the well-documented lags in the effects of monetary policy.⁸ Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. Such an abrupt tightening would risk disrupting financial markets and perhaps even inadvertently push the economy into recession. Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and thus undermine financial stability.

 

commentator:

These 4 sentences make it clear the Fed will raise rates in 2 weeks

http://www.businessi...-signal-2015-12

Edited by barbu, 02 December 2015 - 02:42 PM.

[CRUISENAL]

30 more points down to 2050 and maybe in a week or so gets there. My target date is 12-11 but has nothing to do with the Bradley date of 12/11 This will set up a rally into the rest of December and on.

[barbu]

- 11/22/15 SPX weekend
- in case reversal takes place before 2103, (Edit: 2104.27)
- then gives weight for "jogging" within two possible trend lines

- 11/28/15 SPX weekend
- As long as index stays above 2069.93 (zone 1 2069.93-2130.46), bulls gain the upper hand.

http://forexrainbow....16272688535.jpg    

 

session 12/03, low 2067.49, Ongoing

On the supports 2071.85-2069.94  (2067.39 http://forexrainbow....16272688535.jpg  )

see how long the supportive trend line can hold up .....

 

more comments after this post

 

[barbu]

 

On the supports 2071.85-2069.94  (2067.39 http://forexrainbow....16272688535.jpg  )

see how long the supportive trend line can hold up .....

 

It lasts about 110 minutes, now support 2067.39 is gone

session low 2059.34, ongoing.....

[barbu]

30 more points down to 2050 and maybe in a week or so gets there. My target date is 12-11 but has nothing to do with the Bradley date of 12/11 This will set up a rally into the rest of December and on.

 

CRUISENAL

2050 breached, excellent call!

[barbu]

The decline in 2011 took around 5 months and retraced over 40% from the 2009 lows after a 2 year + rally. From the 2011 lows to the 2015 highs took over 3 &1/2 years and wave 4 is only a 2 month decline and retraced only 25%. I think it is far more likely we haven't even started wave 4 from the 2009 lows and have only had wave 4 of wave 3 from the 2011 lows and are now in wave 5 of wave 3. If that's the case then a couple of large declines should take place in 2016 for larger wave 4 before the start of wave 5 takes the market even higher in to sometime later in 2017

 

 

different perspective

for reference only

no endorsement

not an E-waver fan

 

 

long term E-wave by Sid Norris.

chart: http://elliottwavepr...rly-6-19-15.png

web site: http://elliottwavepredictions.com

[CRUISENAL]

Thanks,

 

That call was simply a 61.8% Fib retracement and pattern recognition with cooperation of PRICE!

 

If this area holds, the next pattern setup is a rally into year end near the recent high of 2110 

[CRUISENAL]

There is still the likelihood that the SPX tests the daily 100 MA at about 2035.

[CRUISENAL]

test

Edited by CRUISENAL, 04 December 2015 - 03:19 PM.

[CRUISENAL]

I will add here that I see next week down but then we should get a huge rally come from around 12/15-16 on. This is technical and nothing to do with the Fed. 

 

One thing I am seeing on SPX is a Symmetrical Triangle forming like in November-December 2011. Per Bulkowski, price needs to touch both the upper descending and lower ascending lines of the triangle two times minimum. We have two at the upper but not yet two to the lower ascending line. This is why I think next week will likely be down even though the big up day Friday. Once we reach the lower ascending line, this should be a great Long Signal into March, unless other things are at play. The only way this doesn't confirm is if price breaks sharply below the 2030 or the 2019.39 November low and that would mean a much different setup is at hand. So IMO all this bears watching for the next two weeks. We are either setting up for a plunge, or more likely a very nice rally!