31 replies to this topic

[barbu]

- 11/22/15 SPX weekend
- in case reversal takes place before 2103, (Edit: 2104.27)
- then gives weight for "jogging" within two possible trend lines

- 11/28/15 SPX weekend

- chart http://forexrainbow....16272688535.jpg
- As long as index stays above 2069.93 (zone 1 2069.93-2130.46), bulls gain the upper hand.

 

- 12/01/15 - 05:18 PM

- Bear's last hope is 2103

 

 

- 12/05/15 SPX weekend

- did not catch the obvious point 2042.35 in advance (i got 2049 & 2037)

- index remains jogging" within the two possible trend-lines

- with upper resistance 2103 +/- &  lower support 2054 +/-

- wait for trend-lines breakout to zoom in the possible Fibonacci points.

[barbu]

- 12/05/15 SPX weekend

- index remains jogging within the two possible trend-lines

- wait for trend-lines breakout to zoom in the possible Fibonacci points.

chart: http://forexrainbow....87300640582.jpg

 

- 2093.84 is realized by the downward movement

- The R & S is updated accordingly, Resistance 2096.96, 2103 +/-, supports 2055.60-2056.96

- Wait for trend-lines breakout to zoom in the possible Fibonacci points.

[kinga200]

 

 

- short term view

- Bear's last hope is 2103 (2103.47 in this chart http://www.chartuplo...85185379746.jpg

- Since the index closed above 0.3236/2098.53, it validates the current sub-wave has good chance move longer than (at least)  0.382/2112.82 in this chart http://forexrainbow....16272688535.jpg

- since this thread is for monthly view, i will find a proper thread to continue the discussion.

 

 

Session high 2104.27

Bull pushes over 2103.47 slightly and then Bear paws are getting energized

chart (11/27) http://forexrainbow....16272688535.jpg

 

 

Chair Janet L. Yellen

At the Economic Club of Washington, Washington, D.C.

December 2, 2015

The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20151202a.htm

 

we must also take into account the well-documented lags in the effects of monetary policy.⁸ Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. Such an abrupt tightening would risk disrupting financial markets and perhaps even inadvertently push the economy into recession. Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and thus undermine financial stability.

 

commentator:

These 4 sentences make it clear the Fed will raise rates in 2 weeks

http://www.businessi...-signal-2015-12

 

 

The only reason they would raise rates, if at all, is to show they still have control.  Which they don't.

 

imho, they will not raise rates for while.  Japan, and I know we are not Japan,  is going on 30 years and we are in a massive deflationary cycle.

 

But interest rates are the hardest thing to predict.

[CRUISENAL]

There are on daily, weekly and monthly charts, common MA's suggesting where SPX is heading. These MA's suggest in the 2030 area as support. 

 

There is a high probability of a low coming soon in the general area of 2030 give or take. Since price action is playing out much like November-December 2011, we should see that low set between Friday and next Tuesday.

 

So lets see how close that comes to hitting Time and Price.

 

Adding that I see the daily 100 SMA at 2033 currently and that was hit in 2011 and then SPX bottomed there and took off. So this 2030 area is critical for the SPX to find support. 

Edited by CRUISENAL, 08 December 2015 - 09:40 AM.

[CRUISENAL]

This is also the area where the weekly middle Bollinger Band is and where it was in 2011. So there allot of evidence that this is the area of some serious support coming up in a few days. 

 

Today's low so far is 2053.21 so we are not that far from the 2030 area. Time to be patient for the setup.

[barbu]

 

- 2093.84 is realized by the downward movement

- The R & S is updated accordingly, Resistance 2096.96, 2103 +/-, supports 2055.60-2056.96

- Wait for trend-lines breakout to zoom in the possible Fibonacci points.

 

 

- session 12/08 SPX closed at 2063.59.

- nearby FIB point  are 2064.14 [0.786 (2116.48-1871.91)] & 2062.02 [0.618 (2093.84-2042,35)]

- the scope is still in the local frame. No resolution, keep compressing

- Wait for trend-lines breakout to zoom in the possible Fibonacci points.

 

[barbu]

- the scope is still in the local frame. No resolution, keep compressing

- Wait for trend-lines breakout to zoom in the possible Fibonacci points.

 

 

Hit FIB point 2080.27/0.618,  support 2062-2065 +/-. see what is going to happen ....

[barbu]

08 Dec 2015 - 1:21 PM

- Wait for trend-lines breakout to zoom in the possible Fibonacci points.

 

 

The critical point is 2041.08 [0.236 (2134.72-1737.92)]

[kinga200]

Not trying to throw knives here but since there was a poll about the usefulness of E-wave in making money this is why I dont understand how this can make money..."it validates the current sub-wave"

 

Dont get me wrong what I use is only about 69% success rate BUT it doesnt make me change view or being subjective. 

 

One thing I am going to do though is to study it more and maybe I will understand why some risk money with this theory.  I did once see Bob Pretcher talk about it and he is a very very smart man.  But he seems to change or fit his current count to what the market has already done.

 

Just saying...

[barbu]

Not trying to throw knives here but since there was a poll about the usefulness of E-wave in making money this is why I dont understand how this can make money..."it validates the current sub-wave"

 

Dont get me wrong what I use is only about 69% success rate BUT it doesnt make me change view or being subjective. 

 

One thing I am going to do though is to study it more and maybe I will understand why some risk money with this theory.  I did once see Bob Pretcher talk about it and he is a very very smart man.  But he seems to change or fit his current count to what the market has already done.

 

Just saying...

 

did i post a trade for SPX?

 

 

Posted 03 December 2015 - 04:13 PM

not an E-waver fan

http://www.traders-t...e-2#entry736521

 

my signature:

When facts change, I change my mind - John Maynard Keynes