58 replies to this topic

[dharma]

hard to say w/the data that we have, if this is the bottom. the end of the bear phase of this market.   what i do know is by historical standards the miners are cheap. they have declined 85+% from the top. which is similar to the 29-32 crash in stocks of 90% . my strategy is to buy weakness in good companies. and sell when there is strength , i did a little selling last week. and i will sell some more once we hit the fibs are the market spins its wheels. 

the big news is the geopolitical implications of iran/saudi arabia. a military leader in pakistan said if iran attacks saudi arabia we will blow them off the face of the earth. india is in a strategic alliance w/iran. both india and pakistan have nukes. not very comforting.  hadik has pointed out that saudi arabia is @the center of geopolitics this year. stay tuned

 gold appears to be base building.  we shall see if that process requires new lows or not. the cots on friday (old thread) are still bullish for gold w/the commercials in a 20k short position , which is very small and the commercials are more lopsided short the dollar

i do think 16 is the turning point . and i will use weakness to accumulate

the fed reduced its balance sheet by 200bill since the rate hike, wonder if that is the plan

dharma

[crossd]

what does that mean exactly?..isn't that a form of tightening?..taking assets out of cirulation?

 

donc

[tradesurfer]

an 89% decline in the XAU index would lead to a value of about 25....   so far the XAU is only down about 80% from the high.. I am not sure where you are getting the 85% number.

 

we have come down so far and for so long that I think we might as well wait for the 90% threshold.   That would seem to be rock bottom.  Perhaps it would coincide with a gold price move to 850

Edited by tradesurfer, 11 January 2016 - 02:12 PM.

[dharma]

yes, it is a little more than 80% depending which index you use

if this correction goes below 1070 i will think its back to the skids

90% was a very rare occurrence . thus the "great depression" term

dharma

Edited by dharma, 11 January 2016 - 02:44 PM.

[dougie]

sure is acting like a wipe out is more likely in store. Pull up the charts of NUGT and DUST

Which looks more bullish IT?

[dharma]

w/the miners taking it on the chin today and yesterday, the sector is losing its luster.  1080 should be good support (3x360) a good # for support w/1070 a possibility.

i do think we rally more, but i am becoming less comfortable. i  cut some last week when it broke into the next price cycle, so far we have had only 1 close into that price cycle  the dollar is rallying against the yen, which i think @this point is the rally part of the decline.  i am not going to give my dwindling position alot of room

dharma

this from the royal bank of scotland

http://www.graceland...16jan12rbs1.png

the broad market has staged its worst start to the year -ever

the saying goes . so goes january so goes the rest of the year. 

[johngeorge]

From John Hathaway
Senior Portfolio Manager
© Tocqueville Asset Management L.P.
January 7, 201

 

Paper Gold: Utopia for Alchemists

[johngeorge]

sure is acting like a wipe out is more likely in store. Pull up the charts of NUGT and DUST

Which looks more bullish IT?

 

dougie

 

I still have a buy signal on the miners $BPGDM, however, it certainly appears like it wants to roll over. 

[dharma]

i started trading in 78 , i dont know if in 72 the grains joined gold/silver in a bull market. in 78 the whole commodity sector was in a bull move coming out of the 76 correction lows.  i do think oi( i believe oils days as the major grease for the economy are #rd there are cheaper cleaner more efficient fuels)l, grains, meats etc will join gold iin other words i think the whole commodity complex will support each other.  i also think the small specs/large specs are the bait. their psychology , which has been rewarded, is to sell rallies. and i believe they will and do so until 1924 the highs of 11 is crossed. the commercials will be net long or even closer to it. but, most importantly the fodder has to be in the mode to sell rallies

jg, the miners, @ this point are gliding down on light volume. which is bullish . we still have that non confirmation @golds last low by the miners. 

a chinese bank bought deusche banks vault in london, capable of holding 1500 tons of gold . i think that helps to set up the infrastructure when gold starts trading on the shanghai in april. i believe that will be the game changer. taking the volume from london  and ny and trading in yuan.   so,that april time period is something to keep in mind. 

dharma

[dharma]

this is a really bad sign

https://www.supersta...x.php/world/750

dow theory hold if the industrials are producing then the transports are moving the production

no cargoes headed this way, none

wow!

dharma