Member
Posted 19 January 2016 - 11:57 AM
in currencies outside the dollar gold is performing reasonably well. the dollar is seeing in flows of capital and remains strong. so gold is not performing well in dollar terms. but in most currencies that is not the case. mines are shuttering and and losing money, which takes supply out of the market and sets up for the run
for now, the miners are pressing the lows and are very close to making new lows. while i am tempted to buy here , i am going to wait.
dharma
Member
Posted 20 January 2016 - 12:12 PM
mercury went retrograde on the 5th of jan and goes direct on the 25th, i think this change in direction of mercury will affect gold= a downward move
the miners get thrown out , anything that is liquid does in a crash or crashette. and i think that is the anticipation the market is showing here. the spx is close to its august lows, the dow is a further distance . banks jpm, bac, wfc all made new lows, beneath the august lows. the stage is set. the fed meets next week. do they blink ?and reverse course. the whole thing is a confidence game , lose confidence and the up move in gold should begin.. crude oil is a bottomless pit, the big banks lent alot of money to the frackers, who are now belly up. the banks will not get that money back , well @ least not from the frackers.
the transports have stubbornly not confirmed the upmove in the industrials. the market is rolling over, if this is the case, the market has made an enormous topping pattern. w/a 5 wave expanding triangle. wilder called a reverse point wave-he sold a course back when that was quite expensive based on this pattern. saying it could extend to 7pts. , which it might-if marty is right.
the miners have an elastic relationship to gold. they are selling for prices when gold was 300 oz. the reason i am focused there is i have this notion that when things turn , they will go from way out of favor to favor , and be a sprinter
i am waiting and waiting, i dont feel like shooting myself in the foot
but, i am alert waiting for signs the lows are in
dharma
Member
Posted 20 January 2016 - 12:28 PM
one thing is certain this bull move up in stocks was very long in the tooth
dharma
Member
Posted 21 January 2016 - 11:35 AM
well there is going to be alot of finger pointing of who caused this mess. and the real culprits are obvious. run up the debt and pay the price. poor central bank decisions. so , there will be more shoes to fall.
it is troublesome to see gold unable to close into the next price cycle. the next price cycle opens the way to higher prices. looks like the base building and groping for a bottom will continue. unless we can turn the price up into the next price cycle
i am keeping my hands in my pockets.
dharma
Member
Posted 22 January 2016 - 12:15 PM
gs top econ currie in a hurry was out saying low oil prices are good for main street and it seems he stopped his gold bashing.
draghi was out threatening more qe in march, this guy has said so many things over the years. the euro swooned but then finished the european session w/small losses.
the miners are getting dumped along w/everything else, and why not they have been dead weight in a portfolio of equities. hopefully for the bulls this is just another capitulation in a long string of capitulations over the past 5yrs. miners are back to prices of 2k when gold was 300 an oz. alot has been discounted there.
monday mercury goes direct i am in wait and see mode. and next week is the fed
dharma
i have my eye on the financials which have been behind the woodshed
there may be something lurking there. the market has not treated them kindly as of late
there may be something about to surface
Edited by dharma, 22 January 2016 - 12:17 PM.
Member
Posted 22 January 2016 - 04:05 PM
cots http://news.goldseek.../1453494848.php
small specs still short
commercials did little reduced some shorts
commercials still very short the dollar
dharma
Member
Posted 25 January 2016 - 11:57 AM
i read a good bunch of threads on this board this am. good to see the money compounding maching kwave posting
all the threads have a common downward bias. i dont know but the last 4+years have definitely taken the bullish move of the past and turned the market decidedly bearish. while the commercials are carrying their smallest short positions in quite some time
in the dollar gold has not performed well, but in other currencies gold has performed well
breaking into the next price cycle, has been elusive. we have 1 close -1108 into the next price cycle. as long as that does not occur the market will be under pressure. if it should occur it opens the gateway to higher prices. then to reverse the trend we need to get above 1190
in the miners there have been ,,,,,,,,,well i lost count of how many capitulations have occurred.
waiting
dharma
Member
Posted 25 January 2016 - 04:14 PM
gold closed peeking above the next price cycle -1108 we need some closes above here to give an indication of higher prices
the usa bank stocks remain under pressure w/some of the big ones making lower lows today.
manufacturers also under pressure
as well as packaging stocks.
the gold stocks are near their lows while gold has bounced 70
miners get thrown out along w/everything else in liquidations
all in all the good times seem to be lost on the present market . the bank stocks hit the skids
dharma
