58 replies to this topic

[dharma]

the fact that no tankers are headed this way from europe . exposes the recovery for what it is ............. a fallacy. world trade is the backbone of the world gdp. 

the stock market may very well rally here, but i suspect that rally gives way to a sobering decline.  i will be watching the august lows to see how the market performs. if the lows dont hold and are decisively broken -watch out

since the top in 11 gold has consistently made lower highs and lower lows.  until that dynamic changes we are still in correction mode.  so i am only buying things that i liike when they are beaten up and selling them into strength.  gold appears to have made an inverse h&s pattern on the charts. breaking above the neckline, if this is true then pulling back to the neckline is what should happen. then a more powerful rally. if i see divergences on the next low, from oversold i will look for my next beaten up stock. if not i wait.  this market will have its day, when is the question. the fact for the last several weeks the commercials have reigned in their short positions is encouraging

oil bottom callers are out in force. most are looking into the 20s . i do think oil will bottom and if it rallies then alternate energy/green energy will gain a firm footing. as the grease of the world economy oils days are #rd. just like the dinosaurs are gone. oil will have a minor role

dharma

Edited by dharma, 13 January 2016 - 10:38 AM.

[johngeorge]

dharma

 

For sure waiting is the name of the game.  So while I am waiting for the PM's to show their true value, this morning I bought a position in VGLT.  I see it as a safe haven for now.  Meanwhile here is more market opinion from Stewart Thomson:

Stagflation: Implications For Gold & Silver

[dharma]

reportedly china has told its banks to stop buying us debt. 

looks like another shoe is about to drop on the broad averages

will the fed relent on its rise in interest rates? multiple rises slated for this year says the talking heads of the fed

miners succumbing to the woes of the broad market. gold holding gains

there is a shift taking place from optimism to maybe things arent so hot

slowly slowly.  wait until these piles of debt slip into the fore

dharma

[dougie]

watching USD . the other shoe about to drop?

[johngeorge]

Of note, I thought, was the broads were down today while the XAU was up........47%.  Not much,but, nonetheless up.  The dollar could retreat here and then rally higher over 100 on the dollar index.  I still am looking for a rally in gold to the ~1125-1130 area.  Then we see.  Will be out of recent PM miner positions if gold drops below ~ 1045 or silver drops below ~13.65.

[dharma]

the stock market appears to be in trouble. , but it looks to me like we stage a rally before the next shoe drops. w/soros, the ultimate insider, reminded of 08  i think the downside has more to play out.  i do think that some time by april the grains, oil, stocks, and gold will change trends

speaking of gold  i dont know if gold bottomed or not, but i do know almost all will get it wrong. in 09 when it did bottom , the signal was the miners gained 25% in a day!!!!!!!!!!!t then the pile on took place.  its the nature of the beast.  hmy , the south africans have the wind @their backs the stock has now tripled from the lows. in other currencies gold is doing its job, in dollars not so.  i have no idea if we bottomed or not. i am focused on buying when something gets pulverized. that is my mo for now

 gold is not that far from new lows, the big give up has to be the 1k mark. it could be a target. we will find out soon enough

i noticed that jpm came out w/big profits today.   w/bernie leading in nh and trump leading the republicants. it could be the 1st time in 20yrs gs doesnt have both contenders in their pocket! 

dharma

[dharma]

most are either broke or have lost interest in the sector, to me this is a time of great interest . i think , well my opinion carries little/no weight. but jeff currie, in a hurry, of gs carries alot of weight .gs/currie in a hurry were on cnbs this am calling for a bottom in commodities in 16 he talked about a sea change.  hadik has 16 as the golden year. marty is looking @april/may for the low by the way shanghai is scheduled to start trading gold in april in yuan. and to me that will be a big change in the gold market. away from crimex and london insiders.  gs has alot of clients they can cause a change almost by themselves.  

for today came into purgatory, the price highs were between the end of this price cycle and breaking into the next price cycle beginning @1108 ,i would like to see more than 1 close into the next price cycle. but stepping back a small bit. mercury went retrograde on the 5th and goes direct on the 26th, whic i am thinking caps this leg for a bit. the fed meets next week i doubt they can raise now, but who knows?

the commercials have a lopsided short dollar position on  and dollar/yen cross is starting to look good  

it seems, so far getting down near 13 has been a good buying point on gdx, but, the miners are not acting well, so i sat yesterday out and didnt dance 

the saudis are bent on doing away w/frackers and other high priced competition.  they are also in a war w/their neighbor yemen.  i realize these guys are our allies, but they have severely repressed their population and have pissed off alot of their arab neighbors including iran. hadik has said 16 will find saudi arabia @the center for turmoil.  

pick your spots wisely, unless you have an S on your chest

dharma 

[dharma]

well the cots were sobering for the bulls http://news.goldseek.../1452889898.php

small specs remain short

commercials aggressively added to their short gold positions as of tuesday

commercials added a little to their lopsided short dollar position

 

i noticed some very large bigs for some of the miners

dharma

[johngeorge]

Posted by Martin Armstrong Jan 14, 2016

  Gold – No Time Left for Conspiracy Theories

[dharma]

relationships in markets are not static, in fact they are very much elastic. the fact that miners are out of favor, is no surprise. really.  

"Falling grades and production levels, a lack of new discoveries, and extended project development timelines are bullish for the medium and long-term gold price outlook." - Kevin Dushnisky, President, Barrick Gold, Jan 18, 2016.

this is one of the oldest gold mines in the world http://www.thestar.c...production.html

this is what happens , supply dries up and then the bull is born. we are there or very close. of  course markets can stay irrational longer than i can stay solvent

there is alot of time left in the 1st quarter. which is where i see weakness developing . 

patience

dharma