49 replies to this topic

[dharma]

1stly i think gold is the ultimate asset. so, in the end it will be how much you own. trying to pick points and trade is not what i decided to do , when entering this market  in 2k. ihave a plan and i have stuck w/it

drawdowns are part of the biz no matter how you approach this

i do think this rally has more to go.  india is out of the market until the new budget is unveiled 2/29 the banksters know this.  so currie has called for 1100 and then 1k years end.  the jewelers in india think the tariff of 10% will be reduced to 2-4% so they are waiting. ambro georgette boele has turned bullish after 4+ yrs calling for 1300

so far this rally has exceeded the previous rally in price gains 218 and it is going to exceed it in duration. and above 1308 it will have exceeded all of the bear rallies

i dont know if this is the birth of the bull or not . my understanding of overbalancing of time and price is it signals a trend change

my work shows weakness in  april and july/august. so will that be the low or a 2 its not a concern for me  i want to add miners

dharma

[dharma]

gold looking more and more like a cup and handle

dharma

[johngeorge]

"1stly i think gold is the ultimate asset."  I will second that.

"drawdowns are part of the biz no matter how you approach this" I'll second that as well.

"i want to add miners" And that too.

 

Looking to add a couple more explorers and juniors.  Waiting for a pullback below 1200 gold, however, the market may not be that kind to me.

[dougie]

yes i was thinking we see 1175

my guess would be gap down ti=tonight and up tomorrow.

but as you say the market is seldom accomodating

[dharma]

a couple of weeks ago venezuela took out a loan from db and as collateral they gave up their gold. from what i am reading they are almost out of food. they have huge loans . what happens if they dont pay

then there is brazil that also has loans due. ??? how will they pay?

john paulson sold 37% of his gld holdings just before the rally in gold . since his killing he has been a fade. even the pros get snaked

then there is shipping/rails in this country have you checked out the #s there.?????? according to dow theory , the industrials produce and the transports ship what is produced. well if you look @ the #s the transports have not been shipping much! but up 252 today on the dow. the economic ............ continues!

dharma

until the 29th india is on the fence . and that is a huge buyer sidelined

[dougie]

Some is fishy about the Paulson debacle
I honestly think he was a vehicle

[dharma]

well so far we have an overbalancing of price this rally has tacked on more gains in price than the previous rally and has bee n the 1st rally to take out the previous highs. now i want to see if this rally can last longer in terms of time  all indications of a trend change according to gann.  if we can get over 1308 then this will be the greatest appreciation of price since the bear phase began!

dharma

[dharma]

next price cycle starts @1229

i think i made notion that corrections in gdx have been only one day so far

i wonder out loud if all the talk of a cashless society in europe  and doing away w/the 100 bill by summers  is causing folks to go into gold

in the late 60s when they stopped using silver for coinage, folks started collecting all the silver coins they could get their hands on in the usa

dharma

i do see something coming that will cause a spike or another big up day

[tria]

BTW Dharma kudos (from Greek kύδος) are due to you for noticing in early Feb that something has changed.

Indeed it has, a lot has since the very late 2015 unforgetable GDX Tear, errr Year...

[dharma]

thanks tria

yesterday the gdx/gdxj made new highs for the year . gold did not. it is always a good thing when the miners lead on the upside

it is rumored that a hedge fund @citadel blew up, they remained short gold.  if it is true more of this will happen.  sentiment, is not overly bullish

there is always alot to worry about in bull markets. thus the saying "bulls climb a wall of worry"  now the intermarket divergence between gold/silver is interesting to me. @ this point , to my knowledge , no cb holds silver. it is primarily an industrial metal , w/precious metal undertones. when it is clear its a bull then investors will put some $$ in silver.  in the last bull, silver was locked limit down for weeks , the door wasnt wide enough to let folks out. so, all the investors flocked to silver , and they were going to sell to the greater fool for more $$ . this will happen again and before that happens silver will be juiced. until then it will be pulled stubbornly higher by gold.  also in the last bull, crude went w/gold like a glove on a hand . now it has stretched to record breaking relationship. it will change when the commodity bull takes shape and gets going., until then more stretching.

heliocentric mercury is in sagg until the 26th

but more importantly mars is in scorpio until the 6th of march  =bullish gold

i love reading marty , but in the back of my mind is this guy blew up in the 90s , bilked japanese too proud to admit they were taken in the 90s , all of his bad calls in the 90s mysteriously disappeared from record . and now we have the forecaster, which he has put a big S on his chest

we are still in phase 1 , base building in the 4 stage model, so there is confusion and alot of bears.   i do think that things are changing. and i am leaning towards the bullish camp, but i want to see this rally be the longest in time and price of any of the previous bear rallies.  then , i and alot of others will join hadik  proclaiming 16 is the golden year

right now lots of signs are there. 

folks have woken up to how undervalued the miners are , i have several that have tripled and most explorers are up 60% + and i think this is where it starts. they 

buy the miners 1st then the metal getting more bang for your buck

we are not out of the woods yet

i do see confidence starting to erode. it is becoming more obvious that the cbs are clueless , yet @ the controls. did bernake ever make a correct call or observation!?

sentiment

    HGNSI was unchanged yesterday at 34.38%

. MarketVane’s bullish consensus rose a point to 47%

 DSI fell 8 points to 67%, 

dharma

chief justice died on a remote ranch , and yet no autopsy for such a high ranking official?

Edited by dharma, 19 February 2016 - 11:46 AM.