363 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

No real change in forecast to speak of... there appears to be a pennant formation on the SPX hourly chart, and if so, it seems it will break upward when its time is done.  The RH&S formation still looms as a possibility, which also seems to target the SPX 2200 range... and if the 2200 range is reached, I favor further upward movement to the 2500 range... we'll take it one Brexit vote at a time, since if GB votes to leave the EU, the US markets will fall back towards the 1800 range before resuming an upward path.

 

Chart link: https://postimg.org/image/5d0x0pmqh/

 

[tsharp]

Well then, Brexit it is!  I feel another week or two of digesting what to expect from today's EU vote will be able to tell us what is next.  For the moment, I will offer two interpretations, based on what I already had in place, which was an upward trend still in play.  The SPX hourly chart suggests today's sharp sell-off was a part of wave-c of (ii), while the weekly chart, while still far from being sealed, suggests perhaps a wave-e of wave-iv may be in work, and perhaps we might look for a truncated ending, but again, all in due time.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart: https://postimg.org/image/j73ied0ex/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly chart:  https://postimg.org/image/tifv70s49/

 

[tsharp]

I'm sure to some that I am sounding somewhat like a broken record... trend is up... blah, blah, blah... so then please don't let me disappoint you by not continuing in the same here today.

 

The SPX appears to have finished out a strong wave-c of wave-(ii) at just a few points below the .382 fib retrace of wave-(i).  If this interpretation is correct, then we are finally seeing the beginning waves of wave-(iii) that should carry us upward to new ATHs, with likely stops at 2200 and 2500 thereafter, and perhaps also 2900 and 3600 later on down the road.

 

If only wave-iii of wave-c is complete, then we are in wave-iv, with a retest of lows still ahead.  I suppose I favor the former interpretation over the latter, due to the velocity of the c-wave and the fib .382 retrace being hit, but as always... time will tell.

 

SPX 60-min chart link: https://postimg.org/image/rcr2t0bx5/

 

[tsharp]

Not sure I even need to update the SPX today, since the market seems to be behaving in impulsive fashion, though it remains to be seen whether we move on to new highs, or if this rally is simply a wave-ii bounce after a CIT to the downside.  I found it interesting that the futures continued to rally at the close, adding another dozen or so points to the upside; let's see if it can hold that premium through the overnight hours.  The SPX has retaken the .786 fib retrace from the 1810 lows, which was in the 2065 range, with the next target being the .886 fib retrace up at the 2098 range, then after that, the 2111 target, which would strongly suggest the upward trend is still in place, which I suggest it is, and the SPX is attempting to rally to new ATHs... and as always... time will tell.

 

SPX hourly chart link: https://postimg.org/image/kgkdk3ryx/

 

Edited by tsharp, 29 June 2016 - 05:04 PM.

[tsharp]

Just as a follow up... Armstrong is looking for a Dow close above 15,752 (daily) to suggest the uptrend is still in place, and that there could be continuation to the upside.  The SPX weekly is only a few points shy of printing a bullish engulfing candle, above 2075.58, on a closing basis does the trick, which also would suggest a continuation of the uptrend... interesting times!

 

SPX weekly chart link: https://postimg.org/image/a7rwea3x5/

 

[tsharp]

From yesterday: The SPX has retaken the .786 fib retrace from the 1810 lows, which was in the 2065 range, with the next target being the .886 fib retrace up at the 2098 range, then after that, the 2111 target, which would strongly suggest the upward trend is still in place, which I suggest it is, and the SPX is attempting to rally to new ATHs... and as always... time will tell.

 

The 2098 target was hit today and the SPX closed at the highs of the day... the next target is the 2011.05 level, which if taken out, put the sights back on the ATH mark of 2134.72... if tomorrow is a consolidation day, as long as it remains above the 2076 level, the weekly bar is a bullish engulfing candle, which would suggest the move upward is not yet complete.

 

SPX 60-min chart link: https://postimg.org/image/48hxfuna1/

 

[tsharp]

The SPX had an incredible recovery week, though was not quite able to reach to the 2111.05 level on Friday, but does appear to be in the position to continue the upward move to a new ATH next week.  The hourly SPX hit the upper DTL and paused there, which is not surprising, considering how far it rallied - with continued uncertainty over the fallout over the Brexit vote results.  Note also that the indicator line also ran into a DTL and a latent TL, but recoiled and is in position to move through as soon as Tuesday morning.

 

SPX hourly chart link: https://postimg.org/image/77tw0332x/

 

 

The fast momentum indicator on the daily SPX shows the indicator line came down to the UTL (-100 level) and quickly retreated back up to the +100 level and just beneath the DTL. It appears it too could move through the DTL next week as the price does the same and moves on to new ATHs.  Of interest also are the three white soldiers formation (highlighted by Don W [Da Chief] on Friday) that lead the march higher from the Feb lows.

 

SPX daily fast momentum chart: https://postimg.org/image/66tnaym3d/

 

 

The slow momentum indicator on the daily SPX also found support at the lower UTL, just below the zero line support, and also quickly retreated back upwards to a latent TL and just below two DTLs, one not yet drawn, but the higher DTL dates back to April of 2013... if prices continue rising over the next couple of weeks, a new pivot high will be developed on this indicator... interesting times!

 

SPX daily slow momentum chart: https://postimg.org/image/hkg6m5wm1/

 

 

The SPX fast weekly momentum indicator found support just above the highest UTL, then turned back upward to stop at a latent DTL.  Of interest is the lovely bullish engulfing candle, that should suggest a bottom and continuation in the upward move.

 

SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  https://postimg.org/image/gw7c37xw9/

 

 

Then last, but not least is the slow momentum indicator on the SPX.  Of interest in this chart is that the indicator line has met the DTL twice already and was not able to make it through, it's now poised again to test the same DTL, and I think this time, will make it through for the next leg upward in this phase of the bull market... and as always... time will tell... exciting times indeed!

 

SPX weekly fast momentum chart: https://postimg.org/image/nb6czw4m1/

 

[gannman]

the one thing that bothers me here in the bkx. i am watching that to see which way the market goes fwiw

[tsharp]

I understand... here's my take on the BKX.  It seems it could find support initially at the upper UTL, which is also just below zero line support, and if not, there is another UTL just below.  I don't know that the banking index has to confirm new highs in the broader market, though if the US fed gets out of international politics and does what they should do, that is, raises interest rates here in the US, then the BKX may be able to rally in sympathy with the broader US markets.

 

BKX weekly chart link:  https://postimg.org/image/e1nncaxy1/

 

[tsharp]

My best guess at this time is that we are nearly completed with a smaller degree wave-ii, and could be pushing upward tomorrow towards new highs on the year...

 

SPX 60-min chart link: https://postimg.org/image/tofd91snt/