363 replies to this topic

[hhh]

Not sure if I'm nitpicking or have a valid point, but: the 3rd of the iii appears to be the shortest wave, assuming a running correction for the 2nd, and an expanded flat for 4th.

[tsharp]

hhh,

 

Thanks for the note... I do appreciate folks looking over my shoulder and if I miss something, pointing it out.

 

I see the third wave as follows from the 60-min chart: wave-1 = 27.56 points (2047.26-2074.82); wave-3 = 21.79 points (2072.94-2094.73), and wave-5 = 16.40 points (2087.08-2103.48).

 

Have a great weekend!

[hhh]

You're right. Must have been an optical illusion.

[tsharp]

Okay then, first target surpassed, I think we'll hit the next target later today or tomorrow, which would be 2116.48.  Please note that the slow momentum indicator of 134.57 is validating the new high with a lower reading than the previous 2111.05 level of 170.57, and the indicator peaked out and was on the way down at the 2116.48 level, which had a peak reading of just over 170 and was at 146.1 at that last high.  Also note that we are no longer reaching lower-highs, but higher-highs for the year.

 

Chart link: http://postimg.org/image/b07so96c9/

 

Edited by tsharp, 06 June 2016 - 01:51 PM.

[tsharp]

And there the SPX just hit the second ST target and a new pivot high on this upward move, leaving only one more target to go, which is the second higher termination point for wave-v, which puts it just above the present ATH of 2134.72, at ~2137.  Will it make it on this drive?  I don't know for sure, but there seems to be enough overhead room on the 15-min and 60-min momentum indicators... as always... time will tell.

 

Chart link: http://postimg.org/image/5b9xmwtp5/

 

[tsharp]

This last segment upward has been a tough one for sure... at this time, I'm thinking the uncertainty of the Brexit vote and the nearness to the previous ATH are pressuring market forces and causing this choppy market action.  There are numerous alternative bullish counts at this time, one would be that we found the top of wave-i at the SPX 2120 range and are working downward in wave-ii, and it will work its way back upward near the ATH zone into the 6/23 timeframe, another is that rather than the wave-b I'm showing, the SPX is working a wave-d, though that would also result in a top that will not reach the previous ATH, nor the 2137 level I suggested in a previous post.  

 

The count I'm showing here would allow for the 2137 target to be reached, but we will remain in a choppy mode for the next week or so... I don't have a hard favored opinion here, other than the market remains in an uptrend on at least the daily and weekly models I use and depending on the results of the 6/23 Brexit vote, we move strongly upward towards the SPX 2500 level into the end of July, and perhaps higher into year's end, or we fall back again at the vote and then move upward again through year's end... as always... time will tell.

 

Chart link: http://postimg.org/image/mhxue3ujd/

 

[tsharp]

The two leading possibilities I see at this juncture for the SPX is either that wave-i completed and the SPX is in a corrective wave-ii, or that wave-(ii) is still in work.  With the speed of the drop, this feels like wave-c action, so that would suggest wave-(ii) is more complex and not yet done.  With that assumption, wave-c = wave-a @ SPX 2035.41, or wave-c = .618 wave-a at SPX 2067.93.

 

If this is a wave-ii pullback, then the usual suspects are the 50% retrace, which has already been achieved, then the .618, which is below at SPX ~2062... watching to see what develops here.

 

Chart link: http://postimg.org/image/6gxfvrwpl/

 

[tsharp]

If the SPX is electing to only drop to the .618 of wave-a, then it has reached that low today, which was also in the range of the .786 fib retrace from the 1810.1 low off the ATH.  if this is as low as we go for now, we will likely need to retest today's low, but if not, the SPX will start moving back upward again in a wave-i, otherwise, there's the next lower range that I mentioned this morning, of the 2035-40 range, which has fib relationships with the larger wave-(i) and wave-a of (ii)... we shall see soon enough.

 

 

Chart link:  http://postimg.org/image/l3yedfvbt/

 

[tsharp]

While the SPX did not drop to the target I supposed it would, and doesn't mean that it still won't, but with that said, we have five waves down, as a good wave-c should, so we may have bottomed for the time being.  I also notice that we have a decent RH&S formation with a target just above SPX 2200.  That could be the first target on it the way to SPX 2500, but all in its good time and as always... time will tell.

 

Chart link: https://postimg.org/image/52jan4vh5/

 

[tsharp]

Pre-market games, games last Friday, or has some news hit that caused this spike in prices? Regardless, another smaller RH&S formation is a possible play here and the futures would target about 2115ish.... we shall see!

 

Chart link: https://postimg.org/image/xk9cvs9qx/