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Posted 08 July 2016 - 09:54 AM
Okay then... we have out new highs on the year and I do think the SPX will push upward to new ATHs in the very near future, with the caveat being that it's not still in a more complex corrective pattern, and we should know that within a few days. Please also note that there is also a RH&S pattern with a target up at the ~2230 range.
SPX 60-min chart link: https://postimg.org/image/vkfxpflnd/
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Posted 08 July 2016 - 09:39 PM
The SPX rallied to withing a few points of the ATH today... follow through next week should carry the SPX to new ATHs, with the first target being ~2200 (or just above as per the RH&S) and then ~2500, and perhaps even ~2900 by year's end... I suspect the SPX will rally as high as the 3600 range before 2018 is out, but all things in their due time.
The momentum indicator on SPX 60-min chart broke upward nicely through its highest DTL, thus confirming this rally is the real deal, while the daily and weekly SPX fast and slow momentum indicators also all broke through their respective DTLs to confirm the break out to new highs... time will tell how far and how fast the market can rally from here.
Link to SPX 60-min chart: https://postimg.org/image/6xk2rvbrt/
I thought I would post the SPX 15-min chart to illustrate the elegance of TLs and latent TLs.. and note that the momentum indicator is still only in the low 100s and still below the major DTL... suggesting that even in the 15-minute time frame, the market is still not quite overbought... IMHO.
Link to SPX 15-min chart: https://postimg.org/image/e21w0wj15/
Edited by tsharp, 08 July 2016 - 09:41 PM.
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Posted 11 July 2016 - 09:13 AM
I had to see the new ATH in realtime... and here it is, so those fib retrace lines will be gone on the next chart. An alt count is that this rally is wave-b of a running wave-ii... depending on how far this rally goes, or doesn't, will tell us if that possibility is the case.
SPX 60-min chart: https://postimg.org/image/bw8i95dg9/
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Posted 11 July 2016 - 04:55 PM
Just as a follow-up on the possible running wave-ii... wave-c = wave-a at SPX ~2109, if the high today was the end of wave-b.
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Posted 11 July 2016 - 06:40 PM
FWIW, now that we've finally broken upward to new ATHs, here's an update of a possible road map for the coming 2-3 years. I do think this bull market comes to an end, and the aftermath will not be fun, but in the interim, there will be new highs ahead. I think SPX ~2500 is on the near-term horizon, with ~2900 possible by year's end, a pull back to start the new year, then another push to possibly the ~3600 range to end this phase of the bull market... interesting times!
SPX Weekly Projection chart link: https://postimg.org/image/58l3e18pl/
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Posted 12 July 2016 - 10:47 AM
The momentum indicator on the SPX hourly chart just broke through the highest TL (fuchsia) and is up in the 200+ range... and price just hit the .382 extension beyond the wave-i level, so it may pause here a bit to catch its breath, so to speak, if not, the ~2182 level would be the next likely target... time will tell.
Link to SPX 60-min chart: https://postimg.org/image/ipwali449/
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Posted 14 July 2016 - 09:31 AM
The SPX seems to have caught its breath yesterday, so now I suggest it's upward to the next ST target of the 2182 range, which is the price level of the .618 extension of wave-i .
I'm posting two charts of the daily SPX with the fast and slow momentum indicators. The fast indicator has broken through its highest DTL, though it has not yet matched the momentum high for the past twenty years. That DTL marks the high of ~283 from 03/00 and the next highest is at ~262 in 10/04, so you can see the momentum indicator has a bit to go to reach previous highs.
Link to SPX Daily fast momentum chart: https://postimg.org/image/92ycftavt/
Whereas the SPX daily with the slow momentum indicator has pushed upward through the next highest DTL, dating back to 2013, but has a bit to go to reach the highest DTL, which dates back to the momentum high set in 10/06, at ~270... so you can see that it has quite a way to go before it meets the previous momentum high levels, but so far, so good.
Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart: https://postimg.org/image/rjsr6mqu1/
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Posted 14 July 2016 - 05:05 PM
While another up day for the SPX, it found pause at yet another fib extension of the previous wave-i, which was actually the high of the day at just shy of 2169. If the earnings numbers come in at or above consensus tomorrow, I suspect we will continue on up to the next fib extension of .618, at the ~2182 level, and then continuation through to the 2200+ level by next week, to complete wave-i of this new wave-iii... time will tell.
Link to SPX 60-min chart: https://postimg.org/image/94cvmz23d/
Edited by tsharp, 14 July 2016 - 05:06 PM.
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Posted 16 July 2016 - 01:51 PM
At the close of the regular market on Friday, I had a count on the SPX that had completed wave-c of a corrective wave, and it was poised to continue upward on Monday. However, as news leaked of the attempted coup in Turkey, the futures sold off and so now there are a few alt counts that could be valid as well, including a running wave-ii, which could find its low early next week and then we move upward again from there. It's worthy to note this excerpt from a recent update by Martin Armstrong:
Many dealers were saying they had missed this rally and are reluctant to jump on board at these levels – if we see more supporting releases on Friday the decision will have to be made shortly after!
That said, if this coup ordeal is resolved by Monday, we could be back to the original count, with higher prices still ahead through July and perhaps even into Aug, before a sizable pullback ensues. And I agree with Armstrong's observation, that if we don't get that pullback soon, the dealers will likely be forced to jump in, which could help propel this market upward in wave-iii fashion. The next higher targets Martin has for the Dow are all up in the 19K-20K range: 19,237, 19,458, 19,512 & 20,935... he said this in yesterday's market update: We have been warning that new highs in 2016 was on the horizon. However, our three main targets for resistance have been for the past 6 years unchanged – 18500, 23000, and 40,000. We finally closed on Friday at 18516.55. It has been a long-time coming.
I'm posting the weekly SPX fast and slow momentum charts today to show the breakout of DTLs, which in my mind, also confirm the breakout in price level, and suggest this breakout could go on for a while, even as also does the AD line, which has recently hit new ATHs and the summation index, which is also at new highs.
Note that when the fast momentum was in a similar pattern (green arrows), when it broke out it lead to an immediate 300+ point rise in price, and an eventual 800+ point gain beyond that. Note also that the DTL break on the slow momentum indicator was longer in duration, though not as deep as the previous cycle, but the last IT DTL break lead to a 1000+ point gain in the SPX.
Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart: https://postimg.org/image/g0ybre0k9/
Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart: https://postimg.org/image/m35yhvp09/
Link to SPX AD Line chart (courtesy of fib_1618): https://postimg.org/image/6iykrcevt/
Member
Posted 18 July 2016 - 11:22 AM
Just re-posting something I posted over on the FF board, in response to why is the market seemingly lethargic in behavior if we are actually in a third wave now... first, we are in the beginning waves of a third wave, second, the time time will come when the market makers realize that they missed the beginning of the move and will be forced to jump in AND the rest of the world markets will also need a place to make a positive ROI on investment (how's that negative interest for parking money at a bank working out?), so the hot money has yet to follow, but will do so soon, perhaps as early as September... anyway just my thoughts here.
The post:
Consolidation periods with break-outs that take the markets to new highs is nothing new in the history of the US markets. Prior to the bubble burst of 1929, the US markets went relatively parabolic for over seven years. Likewise, the US markets went relatively parabolic after the breakout of the 70s in the early 80s through 2000, so why would it seem unique or strange for the US markets to go parabolic again after about nine years of correction, plus another two years of basing and breaking-out? Please note the relative length of the fifth wave during the past phase of the bull market of the 1920s... I suggest the present US market is at the 1927-28 juncture... but as always, time will tell. And please forgive the chart not being up-to-date, as I do not subscribe to that site, but am borrowing a chart that was posted here some time back.
Link to Dow long-term break-out chart: https://postimg.org/image/pyijbxmxl/
