Member
Posted 09 November 2016 - 04:08 PM
At this point, with the SPX breaking upward through the lower DTL and the upper channel line, I feel that running wave-ii) is finally complete, and we are in the initial waves of wave-iii), with new ATHs in the cross hairs, and a first likely target of ~2200, then ~2500... but as always... time will tell.
Link to SPX 60-min chart: http://postimg.org/image/g6w6a2jbt/
Member
Posted 10 November 2016 - 11:37 AM
I was stopped out of IVV last week, and I stayed out. The market volatility is mostly event volatility, and just like Brexit, too hard to call, and too temporary in effect. I bought a little AMGN and GILD, cheap and decent divy. I picked up a little AMZN this AM, dominant company on sale. In general, I'm waiting for some settling.
Blogging at http://RichInvesting.wordpress.com
My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months.
Member
Posted 10 November 2016 - 07:12 PM
Interesting dynamic today... the Dow moved to new ATHs, the SPX moved up to the ~2180 range, just ~14 points short of new ATHs, then fell back, while the Naz was under pressure all day, at one point I saw the Dow up 1%+ with the Naz down the same percentage... Armstrong has been saying for the past 6-12 months that the upcoming phase would be lead by the Blue Chips, and it appears to finally be the case, with the Dow closing two days in a row, and probably also on a weekly close above Armstrong's weekly closing trigger of 18,370: https://www.armstron...ly-of-10172016/... the weekly bars on both the Dow and SPX should also lend technical confidence with outside, up, bullish engulfing candles, with the Dow hitting new ATHs on a closing basis today, and likely also on a weekly basis, and perhaps the SPX will grow a set and do the same tomorrow... time will tell.
Link to SPX 60-min chart: http://postimg.org/image/epoyn3zo9/
Member
Posted 11 November 2016 - 09:35 AM
I misspoke a bit yesterday... the outside up move was only in the futures, not the cash markets, though the bullish engulfing candle still is correct. With fed speak today and the ES in a bullish pennant formation, it could either breakout upward, or morph into a flag formation instead, then break out upward next week... time will tell.
Link to SP00s chart: https://postimg.org/image/6e6zr36ft/
Edited by tsharp, 11 November 2016 - 09:36 AM.
Member
Posted 12 November 2016 - 01:18 AM
WOW... what a week... we finally seem to be getting the directional move I've been awaiting for a couple months now! I'll start with presenting my favored EW count on the weekly SPX, which shows what I think is the end of the running wave-ii, which has been my favored count for a couple of months now.
Link to SPX Weekly EW chart: http://postimg.org/image/kizh71s9l/
Next are the weekly fast and slow momentum charts of the SPX, and as I suggested last week, their respective momentum TLs would provide support and there would be an upward movement in price.
Link to SPX Weekly fast momentum chart: http://postimg.org/image/qnvky49qx/
Link to SPX Weekly slow momentum chart: http://postimg.org/image/upco3s21l/
Then with the Dow reversing and running to new ATHs, I can already hear the Dow Theory folks chiming in that the transports aren't confirming. The last time I posted the DTX, I pointed to the RH&S and opined that if it were to play out, the transports would also soon see new ATHs and confirm the Dow... so far, so good, though not quite there yet; however it seems the 100 level combined with the latent TL on the momentum indicator will likely cause at least some pause in the upward price movement in the ST.
Link to DTX Weekly chart: http://postimg.org/image/z2b7m7as9/
Finally, on to the banking sector... the last time I posted this chart, I also mentioned the RH&S and suggested the sector could see a breakout, but I wasn't sure they would ever move back to new ATHs. My outlook has not changed on this sector, and expect at least an ST pause in the upward price movement, if not longer, as the momentum line runs into overhead resistance from its DTL and price fulfills the target from the RH&S... what happens after that? Time will tell... interesting times!.
Link to BKX Weekly chart: http://postimg.org/image/6uo2j5lqx/
Member
Posted 13 November 2016 - 04:57 PM
Posted on the FF page last week:
GC broke major support on both the price TL and momentum TL seven weeks ago, this week was the second failure as price could not even back-test the broken TL, though the momentum line did at least touch. I don't see support until down at the zero line on the momentum indicator chart and the top of the former price channel line, then perhaps enough bounce to create a right shoulder... but as always... time will tell.
Link to GC Weekly chart: http://postimg.org/image/92jey5ie1/
Member
Posted 13 November 2016 - 06:52 PM
While I realize it's still a bit too early to speculate on the SP00 pennant formation, but if it does play out, that is a 152-point upward move, which targets the ES ~2315 range... we shall see!
Link to SP00 240-min chart: http://postimg.org/image/5u67czyah/
Member
Posted 15 November 2016 - 06:22 PM
Okay then, perhaps we've finally broken out of pennant formation... I suspect the cash market will be more in line of where the upward pennant target will be, which takes us up about ~100 SPX points from the breakout point, to say ~2265 range, but let's not get too ahead of the market, as the SPX needs to get through the 2200 level first. If that happens on a closing basis, then the next target would be the 2265 level, and perhaps even upward to that 2500 level that I've been looking for since last Feb.... and as always... time will tell.
Link to SPX 60-min chart: http://postimg.org/image/d4a785uxl/
Member
Posted 17 November 2016 - 06:13 PM
The SPX continues to suggest the low I labeled as wave-ii) (60-min chart) is the end of a running wave-ii, and that we are now seeing the initial waves of wave-iii) in progress. With a close at the top of today's trading range AND at the final DTL, it seems likely we could see a gap through tomorrow, then later next week, a possible test of the DTL from above... if this is the case, we could see new ATHs tomorrow and possibly even a close at or near SPX 2200... interesting times for sure!
Link to SPX 60-min chart: http://postimg.org/image/tqikpr93t/
Member
Posted 19 November 2016 - 03:14 PM
The SPX did not get the follow-through on Friday that I thought might be possible. Therefore, I suggest the wave count is either wave-i complete with wave-b of wave-ii compete and wave-c of wave-ii in work or wave-i complete at the peak on Friday's open and wave-ii just started and could likely continue into Thanksgiving holiday break.
I'm also posting the SPX daily fast and slow momentum charts, which show the indicator line in bullish configuration, which if my take on the wave count is correct, those indicator lines could break upward to new highs... time will tell.
Link to SPX 60-min chart: http://postimg.org/image/7bedw74d5/
Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart: http://postimg.org/image/8eyi85p09/
Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart: http://postimg.org/image/fjgbh6w9l/
Edited by tsharp, 19 November 2016 - 03:16 PM.
