363 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

Light trading before the holiday allowed the SPX to break through the last DTL and move to within just a few points of 2200, while the Dow, Naz and SPX all hit and closed at new ATHs today... I'm torn on whether the SPX is finally in wave-iii now or whether a continuation of wave-b of a wave-ii is still in play, with wave-c downward still to hit as it comes up against 2200, which will likely be tomorrow, since the SPX closed near the top of its range today.  If in wave-iii, I do not see any significant pullback until much higher prices are reached... but as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/90szkr7bt/

 

[tsharp]

yes, it is not my chart, it is from wavetrack, you can see it on the pic. it is from 2012, that is exactly the reason why it is interesting.

but very close to 2140, it does not have to be exact point, does it?

yes.

exceeding 2200 or even going sideways for next couple of years.

 

Okay then, the SPX has closed above that 2200 level you cited last March... thoughts please?

 

Chart link:  http://postimg.org/image/6ibvxtazd/

 

[tsharp]

New AT closing high on the SPX today is suggesting Mr. Market wants to continue the upward move... I'd like to see the 2250 level attained sooner than later, then on upward to the 2500 range in good time... interesting times indeed!  

 

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/d0wgm06ah/

 

[tsharp]

I realize I may be sounding like a perma-bull since Feb, but I don't see much in the way of resistance for the SPX up until the next latent UTL, and that is up at ~2250, then the .146 extension would be next up at ~2350, then above that the .236 extension up at ~2500...  IF my count is correct, a running wave-ii suggests upward strength... the SPX just built another base and pushed through the last DTL, a latent UTL and the psychological ATH 2200 level... so if we are now in a wave-iii, following a running wave-ii, the Santa Claus rally may surprise many to the upside... but as always... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX EW chart:  http://postimg.org/image/752zhz7x5/

 

[tsharp]

All three major indices (Dow, Naz &SPX) hit and closed at new ATHs today and at the top of their respective ranges... the trend continues to be upward... until it isn't.  I'll post weekly charts later over the weekend.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/d163wv1zt/

 

Edited by tsharp, 25 November 2016 - 03:04 PM.

[tsharp]

The SPX weekly fast and slow momentum charts continue to support the bullish case, though the fast momentum chart may suggest a pause ahead as the indicator line meets the DTL line, meanwhile, the slow momentum indicator recently found support on the top of a DTL and just broke upward through a new DTL and the +100 line, which again, supports the bullish case.

 

And finally, the monthly SPX chart continues to support the bullish case with the indicator line pulling back upward, finding support at the top of a UTL and the +100 line; the ATR all the way down at the ~2008 level; a bullish, outside upward engulfing candle, and the wedge formation breakout target above at ~2550-~2600.

 

Have an awesome weekend all!

 

Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/np9uvpbyx/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly slow momentum chart: http://postimg.org/image/l981hutw9/

 

 

Link to SPX monthly fast momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/o4pq2gna1/

 

Edited by tsharp, 25 November 2016 - 08:04 PM.

[tsharp]

So while I believe the IT trend is still upward, I'm torn on whether the count is a i-ii, i-ii and about to break upward, or if the recent peak was the completion of wave-b:ii, if the former, the SPX will likely to continue upward into week's end, if the latter, the SPX will need to fulfill five waves down, then can begin moving upward again... I hope the next day or so will resolve this matter.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/cga2xbu1l/

 

[tsharp]

With the new ATHs this morning, it seems the running wave-ii is not correct, but a wave-i,ii, wave-i,ii...

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  https://postimg.org/image/o1y1a9jo9/

 

[tsharp]

An alternate count is that the recent peak is a part of wave-iii and wave-iv of the first larger wave-i from the wave-ii) lows... watching to see how the week finishes out to see what the symmetry looks like.  The momentum indicator on the daily SPX fast and slow momentum charts also ran into DTLs, so it's no surprise to see a pause at these levels.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/y1xj3wkbd/

 

 

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/99xwwo34p/

 

 

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/gefq5pae1/

 

Edited by tsharp, 30 November 2016 - 07:57 PM.

[tsharp]

I have a working weekend, so this will likely be the only update for the weekend.  With Friday's market action, the SPX could be counted as five waves down from the first peak through 2200, so can still be regarded as possibly in a c-wave of a running wave-ii, and the back-test of the last DTL complete... with the matter in Italy resolving on Monday, we may get a sharp move up or down, but hopefully, it will become more clear by then where we are in the fractal sequence.  If the SPX falls as low as the ~2182 level, the wave-iii, wave-iv scenario I suggested as a possibility earlier would no longer be a realistic scenario for me.... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/837g82pcp/