363 replies to this topic

[tsharp]

Italian vote turned out to be a non-event for US markets... pre-market price action has created a pennant formation suggesting an upward resolution from Friday's lows... time will tell.

 

Link to SP00s chart:  https://postimg.org/image/4h23eszx5/

 

[tsharp]

With the upward move in the SPX today, I think I have fallen back to my previous interpretation, which was a running wave-ii... until the market shows otherwise, I will make that my lead count, and if correct, the next upward resistance should be at the ~2250 level, then the ~2350 level... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/f2v5ial09/

 

Edited by tsharp, 05 December 2016 - 06:44 PM.

[tsharp]

Okay then, wave-iii it is!  I think the SPX is in the first segment of wave-iii, and perhaps will move on upward to the ~2250 or ~2350 to complete segment one, on the way to ~2500... but as always... time will tell.

 

The Dow and SPX hit and closed at ATHs today, and the Naz came within about 6-points of its ATH, and closed at the high end of its range.  And for those Dow theory folks, I previously suggested the RH&S formation, if it played out, would carry the Transports to new ATHs, and that was fulfilled today... and also confirms the new ATHs in the Dow.  The target on that formation is still a bit higher, though there are also DTLs on the indicator line, which will likely present some resistance, before it gets up to the ~1000 level.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart: http://postimg.org/image/a7ehnb3rt/

 

 

Link to DTX weekly:  http://postimg.org/image/eukjp2r4p/

 

[pisces]

tsharp,,thanks again for sharing your thoughts and charts here..i want to relay an observation that i made over the years regarding Running Corrections.if this was a RC ,which i also believe is the case , then : The move after the correction is equal in lenghts to the move going into the correction i observed that to be true in most cases  [minimal move]   that would target SP 2295, and DOW 20200  roughly..we shall see very soon if this is true here . best to you 

[tsharp]

tsharp,,thanks again for sharing your thoughts and charts here..i want to relay an observation that i made over the years regarding Running Corrections.if this was a RC ,which i also believe is the case , then : The move after the correction is equal in lenghts to the move going into the correction i observed that to be true in most cases  [minimal move]   that would target SP 2295, and DOW 20200  roughly..we shall see very soon if this is true here . best to you 

 

Thank you for the kind words... it appears there may be two running corrections: wave-i), wave-ii) (hourly chart), which ended in Nov then the wave-i, wave-ii, which just ended...

 

As far as the EW count goes, I think the SPX could finally see ~3600 before this phase of the bull market is complete... I misspoke above regarding the 2250 level, it is not the .146 fib extension, though it is about the .09 fib extension (2266), while ~2350 is the .146 fib extension, with ~2500 being the .236 fib extension.  I think the SPX is presently in the first segment of wave-iii), and wave-i:iii) may extend upward to the ~2350 level... though it has come up against a latent TL, which could cause some pause... time will tell.

 

I'm also posting the monthly SPX; if the first bullish engulfing bar in this recent rally is wave-i, then this month's bar would be all or a part of wave-iii, and I do not see much of a pull back until at least the next bar, which could represent the top of the first segment: wave-i... again, time will tell.

 

Link to SPX weekly EW chart:  http://postimg.org/image/tybrqajtl/

 

 

Link to SPX monthly chart:  http://postimg.org/image/fgekiasih/

 

Edited by tsharp, 08 December 2016 - 09:31 PM.

[tsharp]

FWIW, with the major indices continuing to create new ATHs, and the DTX confirming the Dow this week, via Dow Theory, what about the broader market?  The NYA is just a frog hair away from new ATHs too, and the cumulative AD confirms... with a RH&S formation that is targeting about 13K... IMHO, we are seeing a reflection/harmonic of 1928-29... there is much higher to go... just my $.02 worth.

 

Link to NYA Weekly chart:  http://postimg.org/image/blfrtgyqh/

 

 

Link to $NYAD chart:  http://postimg.org/image/96nw91ihl/

 

[tsharp]

Over the past six months or so, I've opined on the BKX, suggesting it had room to move higher based on the possibility it could fulfill the RH&S target.  My observation has come to fruition, and then some... I do suggest the BKX is nearing it's limit, with the a possible top target objective at the fib. .786 retrace level in the ~99 range, or at the most the fib. .886 retrace level of ~109... time will tell.

 

Link to BKX weekly chart:  http://postimg.org/image/v8irwtsd5/

 

Edited by tsharp, 09 December 2016 - 08:20 PM.

[tsharp]

The SPX daily fast and slow momentum charts are clearly in bullish configuration... the fast momentum indicator on the daily SPX just broke through the LT DTL that dates back to the momentum peak in 2000, whereas the slow indicator is about to break through its LT DTL that dates back to 2006...  IMHO, we're not near an IT top, as momentum has not even shown divergence yet...

 

Link to SPX daily fast momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/yhslpjr2x/

 

 

Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/acwhlkw61/

 

[tsharp]

The SPX weekly fast and slow momentum charts are also showing bullish configurations, with the fast momentum indicator line pushing upward towards it's final LT DTL, and the slow momentum indicator line pushing upward again above the 100 level... IMHO, we are not at a top, but at the beginning of a breakout that will carry prices much higher... time will tell.

 

Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/ko8ue8nvd/

 

 

Link to SPX weekly fast momentum chart:  http://postimg.org/image/tkjmi6ehl/

 

[tsharp]

And finally... last, but not least, the SPX 60-min chart continues to show the harmony of TLs... the .09 fib extension is ~2166, then the next fib extension is the .146 level at ~2350.

 

Link to SPX 60-min chart:  http://postimg.org/image/tltkblgbd/