49 replies to this topic

[Russ]

Hi Dharma, the big boys don't seem to share your enthusiasm for Gold... 

[johngeorge]

From Stewart Thomson March 29, 2016:  

Gold: Yen Lightning & Love Trade Thunder

[tria]

Russ my friend,

Pls take into account that the COT you show is as of Tuesday 3/22.

By last Tuesday 3/29 Gold had fallen by about $50,00 and Silver by about $1.00

The drop in OI in the fututes indicates some short covering activity and stop loss selling

by the Commercials and the Hedgies respectively .

I think tomorrow's COT will verify my assumption. The behaviour of the Commercials yesterday,

today and tomorrow is now of the outmost importance but we will only have this info on Friday 4/8.

 

 

[dharma]

in todays market the commercials are a big factor. note that they are almost always short.  and in bull markets the size of their short positions expand. @ some point in this bull they will have 300k  short.  and that will no longer matter that much as the sge opens for biz 4/19 it will be a fiz market denominated in yuan.  breaking the rules in china can be very costly. it could end your life!!!

lets get some perspective. here is a 10yr chart of gold . note the lows in 08 and the 3yr rally that ensued from the qe money ball, which everyone thought would bring inflation . well it hasnt and it didnt. the banksters got about 50% of the money and were not required to reallocate it . 

https://www.kitco.co.../au3650nyb.html. this is very early in the bull.  miners lead up and they lead down. when they lead up ,its an up market.  one would be hard pressed to find another investment right now that is as undervalued as the miners. granted its all a matter of perspective

oil has turned up from a double bottom and is above the declining trend line.   in the last bull oil and gold were a glove to a hand. hadik has made note of the saudi arabia and syria chart .   yes, a blow up there could get folks running to the dollar. there are short periods where the dollar and gold trade in tandem!!

i am not yet married to the bull,  i do think we have another leg which puts 1300s in the rear view mirror.  after that i will reevaluate.  i do see the pieces of the gold bull era coming into place and the sge is a part of that wheel. i read as much as i can, i do my own work and draw my own conclusions. and i am not right all the time. but i dont need to be. 

dharma

ps maund appeared around 2008 his call for gold to have a precipitous drop based on the commercials expanding their short position may be right, but i am viewing that situation as 1- the commercials are always short 2- 2004 commercials put on a big short and it took years for it to bite

3-in a bull commercials expand their short position and 4- comex and london will be made less relevant w/ the sge and the dubai quattro.  the mid and far east is where the real demand comes from not the west! 

[dharma]

notice that while the metal has given back most of the 1 day wonder, the miners remain firm

although one i like took some heat , so i added to it

i am in the april camp w/the 17 week cycle bottoming

and hadiks dates 4/4-4/8 or the 4/11-4/15 and this is the time frame for the 17 week cycle low

all this is just noise, watch them run to and fro.  

stewart thompson "i will not micro manage generational lows or bull eras ever again"

dharma

[dharma]

here are some ideas for companies to consider.  rick rule on plays he calls "optionality" 

these plays are interesting prospects

http://sprottglobal....y-march-2-2016/

if you have ideas to share, please do so. 

dharma

[dharma]

well gold corrected from 1285 to 1208 and the folks that missed the 1045 lows  probably bought nothing @ the correction lows. and so it goes.    team correction and team new lows are still out there.  above the highs of 1924 and then they quietly enter the market. 

the fed tried a # of qes deflation still persisted, janet took what ben did and tapered it to0, in fact she raised rates once and gold rallied. m2 money velocity was/is still trending down.   something has changed in the gold market.  generational lows in the mining sector.  w/folks calling for lower lows and buying nothing. 

if you have ever bought explorers and watched them burn through the cash they have on hand while accomplishing nothing for you as a share holder, only having to dilute the company by raising more money, then you can appreciate rules optionality  plays. chpgf for example is sitting on a very large find of gold/silver in a mining favorable locale in mexico and is just sitting waiting for the market to offer more favorable  terms for money. rifel has been through this before he is a pro and on the board of gg.   he will not waste your money. the stock sits at1.63  it was a 20 dollar stock in 11. this is not investment advice, but pointing out the state of the present market.  do your own dd and do your homework, your competition is certainly doing their. 

i see jim sinclair is out there calling for 2100 and then 3500 in a gold reval , in the last bull he was one of the largest players in the gold market. then he was assigned the task of liquidating the hunts.     well one thing he has the indians and chinese @ his back

dharma

me i am waiting for the 1300s one baby step at a time. it all starts in april 

[dharma]

https://twitter.com/DerGoldreporthere is a comparison to 80

dharma

end of quarter today

Edited by dharma, 31 March 2016 - 10:05 AM.

[tria]

Have stopped reading Sinclair thoughts Dharma but have not stopped reading yours...

[dharma]

thanks tria, i am sure to read your thoughts as well, it doesnt matter to me if we agree or disagree  , i gain insight either way  

 

it looks to me like gld/gdx have made a base and pennant for another leg higher. looks like @ some point in april we begin the next leg higher.  

dharma

Edited by dharma, 31 March 2016 - 11:48 AM.