25 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

The bench mark for prices in the US is the San Francisco Market at this time...

 

http://www.marketwat...down-2016-04-15

 

Redfin noted that the average sales price for luxury homes in San Francisco (which Redfin defined as the top 5% of home prices in a given quarter and worth more than $1 million) fell 4.7% in the first quarter of 2016 to $4.4 million, down from about $4.6 million a year ago

 

 

The bench mark for International is Hong Kong, they are about 6 mos ahead of us, their market topped in Sept 2015 ....

 

http://www.bloomberg...is-in-free-fall

 

Hong Kong property prices have declined and sales are hovering near a 25-year low as the city grapples with the repercussions of a slowing Chinese economy. Home prices have dropped about 13 percent from a peak in September, according to data compiled by Centaline Property Agency Ltd.

 

 

 

Today we have reports of record sales, but prices topped in April

 

The way this works is we have sellers entering the market now, as they sense the market has topped as prices decline... so we get a bump in sales as buyers scoop up perceived "bargains" - many of whom have shopped and been frustrated by losing deals to multiple offers in the old "seller's" market.

 

Now as we see the prices slide, the VOLUME WILL DRY UP - as buyers wait and let prices continue to unravel and we evolve into a BUYER'S MARKET.

 

Prices will drop some more, there will be a bump in volume as prices drop, but that will dry up

 

Sellers will slash prices, and then volume dries up completely as buyers fear another 2006-2008.

 

And they should, because it's well on it's way.

 

 

 

[blackcloud]

Coach, you still holding those RUT shorts?

[opinionated]

Not sure what to think about this Market,...

 

I remember years ago I kept shorting a market that refused to go down I about went bankrupt. I am feeling this may be the same thing. I think it is obvious we have began QE-4 no matter what they say.  I have lost a bunch in the last month shorting each time we should have rolled over. Bottom line is we can not believe a single thing we are told. Most here know how bad the economy really is, how terrible real unemployment are. I think we will get a correction but firmly believe 2130-35 area will hold it and we rocket off again.  Anyone looked at the monthly indicators? We are about to get another buy signal and they are generally pretty good.  I am holding RUT longs but hate it! I was short yesterday when the dropped it to 119.75 and reversed... Took a loss and flipped long. Looks like 124 is a real possibility this week we have a ton of energy built up in RUT and if it explodes up there is a long way up. 

[MaryAM]

Mortgage originators have no skin in the game once again - only this time the FED is buying up mortgage backed securities - not investors. Can anyone say THATS NOT THEIR JOB? Problem is that they have not worked out the last property crises involving robo signing - and still cannot find wet paper to clear titles. There are still a glut of properties that no one in their right mind will touch because titles can't be cleared. My town is facing major issues related to demolition of abandoned property. It cost money to tear them down but if they don't the animals move in - like black bear. They can't give them away because the cost of restoring them is more than they are worth after restoration. They budgeted taxes based on their developed real estate and now it's developed but no owners. This is no longer the exception but the rule in many areas of the country - exceptions being major metro areas - but that's a very small part of the population. Real estate will once again be the catalyst for another collapse in everything. This time there will be no one who will bail out the FED.

[SemiBizz]

Coach, you still holding those RUT shorts?

Nope I am all cash ahead of the F'ed "decision" haven't made a trade this week.

 

RUT finally busted over 1213 and filled the gap, we'll see if it holds.

[SemiBizz]

Just what they need now in S.F.  A ton of new supply...

 

 

adding more volume to the volume off the top

 

at the low end of the market

 

gonna pull everything down with it

Edited by SemiBizz, 27 July 2016 - 11:26 AM.

[dasein]

I guess they ran out of warehouses to convert to lofts:)

Edited by dasein, 27 July 2016 - 11:49 AM.

[CRUISENAL]

Yep, I sold my lake home in February and the buyers thought they got a deal. Today they will loose 15% at least if they were to sell. Most prices there dropped 100K since February. 

[dasein]

lake home in California?

[SemiBizz]

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