134 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

hgnsi was -29.17% yesterday it was -22.92%. these are quite bearish #s. in fact they are exteme #s
i realize i could take some heat, but what else can you show me. so i put 1/2 my cash back in
dharma

wow, those are some extreme numbers, lets see if an abc wave 4 rally ended yesterday or we possibly rally to a new HUI and GDX high and get a 5 up off the low, key juncture

 

NO BS

 

Senor

[dharma]

it could go either way, so far as senor points out 3 waves up , could be in 4 here and waiting for a 5th wave rally. or we head
down in a 5 of C . we are either in or approaching recession. the economic cycle is long in the tooth , w/all the qe and 0rates
we have muddled along for 8 years.
i will start a new thread when this correction is clearly over. commercials have covered a lot of shorts and the large specs
have trimmed their long positions. sentiment got to an extreme. yesterday the hgnsi reading rose 6.25 points to -22.92%.
was that enough of an exteme shift of sentiment to complete wave 2 . i dont know and am on the fence. and so far the market is not
revealing its intent. patience grasshopper. in spite of all the arrows pointing to the stratosphere by kwn pompom cheerleaders,
gold is stuck in the mid 1200s . w/its short term direction unclear. and over there sits these gigantic mountains of debt.

dharma

[dharma]

u gotta love this guy (repeat)
http://www.kitco.com...luffing---RERUN
dharma

[dharma]

election is 2 weeks away. both candidates are saying they want to build out infrastructure. of course this will
create more debt. the bernack has been preaching perp bonds. all of this talk , when put into effect is inflationary
and thus good for gold i look for 17 to be a better year than 16 was.
here is what has the vampire squid excited http://www.bloomberg...demand-in-china
this correction is becoming more complex in structure. most here trade, be careful. the market will part you from your resources
i am sitting. watching , waiting for later in november to put some cash to work
these are not bad buys here. but i think waiting could produce better buys.
dharma

[johngeorge]

dharma

 

"i am sitting. watching , waiting for later in november to put some cash to work
these are not bad buys here. but i think waiting could produce better buys."

 

Back on October 4th Russ posted a chart giving November 21 the low for the XAU.  Considering that you and and noted others are waiting I feel comfortable being a bit more patient as well.  Gold, IMO, has a long way to go.  It may take a couple years or so, but, that huge amount of debt out there with zero and sub zero interest rates gold will have the wind at its back for some time to come. 

[dharma]

while a of 4 of C saw extreme sentiment #s i remind myself the advance in the miners saw several hundred % advance in many of the
junior miners. my point being that there was extreme bullishness. so, where i think we are is B of C of 4 , man that is alot to
spit out. i am extremely bullish, i think we are on the cusp of a wave 3. we just have to get through this next down wave,
which i think breaks the may 25th lows. i have my shopping list. all i have to do is be patient. i look for the lows in november,
but Trumping that is oversold w/divergences. that has worked for me for decades. simple. i cant begin to tell you how many
times i waited for 5 of C which didnt come or was truncated.
gold is very well supported . physical demand is firm. even on the decline from 1310 gld did not cough up any holdings. this is
a different market than we have experienced in the previous 16yrs. well , i am reading that indian demand is slumping. rubbish,
what has happened is jaitleys 10% tax has encouraged jewelers to buy on the black market. more and more gold is being bought
on the black market the mafia is making some where near the 10% on all transactions. jaitley must be making some serious money
we are heading into the chinese new year. bankster scams in the usa are not what they were in 13-15 they are smaller. this move
from 1310-1240 happened while china was on holidays. the tide is shifting . the commercials covered shorts put on before brexit
when you are blue and frustrated. just look over there at those everests of debt. golds time is coming the world is changing
the old silk road is being built out the Philippines moving towards china is a big big sign
dharma

[dougie]

i think thi is all part of some B wave off this years August highs.  I would wager b of B.  a sharp powerful C of B to come next then we get C down. C down will surprise.

[dharma]

as was the case at the dec 15 lows. and is the case at bottoms, volume needs to be generated for the big players to be able
to buy , this takes shaking out the weak hands. we did have beg volume at the lows in oct. i am still leaning towards one
more shake. miners vs gold are still really cheap so , these are good buys here. buy we may get even a better opportunity
many miners are exhibiting bottoms
kyle bass sees what i am looking for in the next few years http://www.cnbc.com/...ng-in-2017.html
dharma

[senorBS]

Ideally this potential wave 4 in the GDX/HUI will take the form of a bearish contacting triangle with perhaps wave "b" of that a-b-c-d-e pattern ending today. That would fit in very nicely with sideways action into that Nov. 2 FED time frame when wave "e" ends and thus completes wave 4, then we get the classic "thrust" down to a final 5th wave low. And "thrusts" out of contracting triangles are pretty much hard/fast moves so we could easily get a 4-5 day decline and then its done. In a "perfect" world that would be ideal, whether we get it or not is the big Q

 

BSing away

 

Senor

[dougie]

Sounds right