711 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

not so anxious to buy again on this second move back to2323. feeling my call for a consolidation is correct. next advance of five points from any level and i am out. 

[lawdog]

things are shaping up for some kind of decline here; maybe initially back to 2290, but i don't think we will see 2330 again until a new wave up is established , which should require a decline of some consequence.

[lawdog]

all out; 15% short at 2325. transitioning from long to short or vice versa is always difficult, normally has immediate losses and angst. that's why i have learned to transition with smaller positions.

[lawdog]

chomping at the bit to short some more but will not do so until the uptrending spx line chart breaks the uptrend. It's easy to see look at that chart to see that the market yesterday got beyond the uptrend line, resulting in the modest consolidation we are seeing now; but as long as that uptrend line is not broken, it is foolish to add more short, and may be foolish to even be short. but i have a number of sell signals I have been looking for since the trump rally began and I am finally getting them. they are not to be ignored, but they are often a bit early, so I will wait for that line to be broken, at which time I will increase my short to 30%.

[lawdog]

Can't restrain myself; shorting more at spx 2334.

[lawdog]

understand this: when you are shorting near what you believe is a top, you have the whole world hating on you because there are so many at that point who are so confident on the continuation of the rally. It's often hard to stay the course, but when I see it, I must act. The only question is the size of the position. Right now I am at 30%. What will make me wrong? Just a relentless move up which crushes my spirit and makes me capitulate to the power of the bull. When you are wrong, as I have been for the last two hours, you not only lose money, but you lose money you could have made. Not fun. But as I posted above, you almost always lose on the transition. 

[lawdog]

soon to enter final hour on a strong day at ath's. not easy to stay short, but 10 points against me on a small position is not a big deal, but it was money lost and money not made, the worst of all worlds. Going to hang in there with my shorts because it is the right thing to do. Usually the right thing to do is the hard thing to do. Second half of position is only wrong by two points in the spx. Must not falter in my resolve.

[lawdog]

that's a b*tch.

[lawdog]

still liking the dark side. the only thing missing is falling prices. still at 30% short; strength could cause me to cut back to 15-20%, but most likely the die is cast and there is no way out other than a decline. i have no idea how much this decline might be, but the sell signals are the strongest in months. if the market has strong breadth today, this could weaken my resolve for the vst, so i will keep an eye on that. it's always interesting seeing the resolution of what the indicators appear to be saying. opex weeks can be especially difficult. what i especially like is how the market is at ath's but momentum indicators continue a bit weak. for the bulls, that weakness could mean there is room to run; for the bear in me, it means the market has run out of gas.

 

i guess yellen is speaking today. with the market rooting to continue the rally, initial knee-jerk reaction could be to punch higher, so i may cut back to 15% short, let the late money flood in, then increase my short to 45% on a ten-point pop. i am expecting there to be a lot of bulls sitting there with stock they bot at just the wrong time, kind of like wile e coyote finding himself standing in mid-air off a cliff and being handed an anvil. but maybe the bulls will be the roadrunner and i will be the one left holding the anvil (some will hope). i may be due to get my comeuppance from the market (but i doubt it). if i'm wrong you can enjoy watching my anguish. losing is ten times more painful than winning is enjoyable. we take little joy in winning because we expect to win. that's why trading plays havoc with one's psyche, being an endeavor that provides little joy on getting it right and dog-kicking anger when getting it wrong.

[lawdog]

disappointing strength. holding steady at 30% short. anxious to add to it but not prone to committing suicide.