not too impressed where the nyse is hitting new ath's, where the arms index is in the .60-.80 range, and where the last two days breadth has been negative. I don't always pay a lot of attention to these things, but part of my bearishness is based on the loss of momentum, which I think has reached a critical point. Eventually the bulls are so loaded up that the weight of holding their positions overwhelms further buying at the time and a correction occurs. I am counting on this being one of those times. I still won't pull the trigger on adding to my short position. If it starts working, maybe then. there is no shame in being early; it is typical at turns. there is shame in adding to an early position that is not yet working.
My trading plan right now
Started by
lawdog
, Jan 15 2017 09:33 AM
711 replies to this topic
#142
lawdog
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Posted 15 February 2017 - 02:11 PM
With advance almost 10 pts today, bot 15% more of short; at 45% of max short.
#143
lawdog
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Posted 15 February 2017 - 03:16 PM
that didn't work; back down to 30% short.
#144
lawdog
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Posted 15 February 2017 - 11:33 PM
pretty much "at sea" right now. not just because i have been losing money the last two days. i just don't feel any consistency across the range of indicators, so may just bail tomorrow and take a few days off. the one constant is a line chart of the daily spx for the last 5 or 6 days. straight up with almost same slope each day.
#145
lawdog
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Posted 16 February 2017 - 11:29 AM
staying 30% short. see what develops.
#146
lawdog
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Posted 16 February 2017 - 11:57 PM
i have mentioned before something i call position bias, which is where we look for indications in our analysis to support what we want the market to do. i hope i am being honest with myself when i say my analysis fairly supports a market drop from here. there is possibly one good day left on the upside, maybe friday, then we get more than just a few days down. it is not a stretch to say the past 5 or 6 days have been a bit of a "darn the torpedoes full speed ahead" buying spree. maybe cut my shorts back to 15%, look for that one last rally, then start building a significant short position.
#147
lawdog
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Posted 17 February 2017 - 09:15 AM
planning to close shorts in first hour, take small long position for bounce today, then short again market on close. looking for that last rally today.
#148
lawdog
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Posted 17 February 2017 - 09:35 AM
closed half my short; down to 15% short. expect to close by 10:30 est
#149
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Posted 17 February 2017 - 09:41 AM
flat now; will take small long today, get short by close.
#150
lawdog
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Posted 17 February 2017 - 09:44 AM
12% long. risky trade so close to top.
