711 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

still very bearish but think opex could help the longs

[Rich C]

I've been on the sidelines, but yesterday I bought a tiny bit of VXX, and today a tiny bit of SDS.  Together its not 1%, I am wary of being short in a bull market.  Watching closely.  Over 80% of S&P has reported earnings, and many political initiatives will take longer to implement than originally hoped.  S&P is overbought.  Altogether looks like a little pullback could happen, but I am not expecting any big problem, maybe 3 - 5 %, then I'd be a buyer.  That's a days to weeks view.

Edited by Rich C, 17 February 2017 - 11:39 AM.

[lawdog]

vix often sells off before a 3-day weekend. this is way too volatile for my taste, but if it sells down at close, may take a very small long vix position.

 

back down to 12% long. holding up for strength at the close. expect to be 20% short at close.

[lawdog]

last night was looking for spx 2350 again today. still think it is doable. would love to put on some shorts there.

[lawdog]

I've been on the sidelines, but yesterday I bought a tiny bit of VXX, and today a tiny bit of SDS.  Together its not 1%, I am wary of being short in a bull market.  Watching closely.  Over 80% of S&P has reported earnings, and many political initiatives will take longer to implement than originally hoped.  S&P is overbought.  Altogether looks like a little pullback could happen, but I am not expecting any big problem, maybe 3 - 5 %, then I'd be a buyer.  That's a days to weeks view.

i would be very satisfied with 3-5% down if i can catch it. i think we may start with drops of 1-2%, then recover a time or two, then get the 3-5 down. it will be frustrating but should provide some nice opportunities. we agree on vix. but just 1%? be bold, go 2%!

[lawdog]

expecting torrential rains here this pm and kind of need to be out in it. it's supposed to come down sideways. won't post again for a few hours if anyone is watching.  

[lawdog]

remember the movie, "The Sting"? Lonagin was shutout at the betting window. That was me at the close, left holding 12% long. Probably won"t matter, but I would rather at least be flat for Tuesday opening. But, it probably won't matter. Famous last words. will be back after weekend review.

[lawdog]

i have to admit now, after all my bear talk last week, that the market appears to have room to run higher. need to figure out the best way to increase my position. some early weakness tuesday would not surprise me.

[lawdog]

will probably increase to 25% long on the open, hoping it doesn't gap up much, then evaluate as the day/week continues, looking to get to 65% long without having to pay too high of a price. my foray into bearishness has probably cost me 1.5% in performance, mainly from not being long and not from the shorts, assuming I can get back to 65% long without paying up too much. in retrospect I don't feel too badly about my mistake last week; if I had held my full short position of 45% and gotten out where I did on the 30% I kept until Friday morning at about 2340, I would have nearly broken even on the shorts, but missed a lot on the advance from 2330 to 2350. judging from the power of the advance last week, I will not be surprised to see spx 2400 print by Friday.

[lawdog]

bot sso (2x spx etf) on open. up to 25% long. want to get to at least 50%.