in my last post i said i felt comfortable going into the weekend 60% long. but i must say now that the condition of this market terrifies me. i dont think we have more than 2-3 weeks to move higher or hold onto current levels. unless we have a buying panic to finish this thing off, i doubt we close above spx 2330 for some time. prices are high but momentum is failing. markets don't plunge from euphoria; they plunge after the euphoria wears off and all the 'smart' people think the sentiment and momentum needs to exceed the prior levels of euphoria, and they never do, and all us "smart" guys get caught waiting for that one last blowoff that never comes. i hope i get it right on that day which comes sometime in the next six months where the market gaps down 50 spx points. if i am caught on the wrong side that day, i will get out at the open and go with the flow, which will end that day in pure carnage.
beware the market that looks like it should advance but doesn't, where excessively bullish sentiment has tapered off to levels that were good buying points in the past and where momentum flags; those are the most dangerous.
maybe this scenario doesn't play out any time soon, but i am still watching for it where 2 months of effort is wiped out on the opening.
