Very surprised this decline didn't take hold better. May cut back my 45% short position. But the bulls haven't done that well either, so I will hang in for now on my bear bets.
My trading plan right now
Started by
lawdog
, Jan 15 2017 09:33 AM
711 replies to this topic
#62
lawdog
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Posted 30 January 2017 - 03:46 PM
Cut back to 30% short. What a disappointment.
#63
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Posted 30 January 2017 - 03:51 PM
This really sucks.
#64
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Posted 31 January 2017 - 03:28 AM
this mkt still terrifies me, even more now. bulls are pretty much fearless while momentum wanes and market goes nowhere, at least spx for 7 weeks, and rut, which is down 3% from 7 weeks ago. staying short at 30% of full short position; a failed bounce tomorrow, tuesday, might get people's attention. surprised futures are lower. will look to add to shorts on rally failure, if it comes. long vix is very tempting but . . . will leave that to those who know that mkt. bulls think they are invincible after today, but i say so what, they brought it back 11 points, spx.
#65
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Posted 31 January 2017 - 03:58 AM
this is my last post for a while. sometimes we trade based on our prognosis, hoping our call was correct to prove how good we are. i dont need for that possible problem to affect my trading right now.
#66
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Posted 02 February 2017 - 01:09 PM
I hate the technical condition of the market, but a seat of the pants feel for the tape says to me we rally before we decline. The bears had their chances, so I will go with a small long.
#67
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Posted 03 February 2017 - 04:53 AM
40% long; will increase to 60% on weakness friday, if it comes.
#68
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Posted 03 February 2017 - 09:27 AM
will not buy any more on this large gap opening. probably content today with 40% long from yesterday unless spx pulls back to less than +5 later, in which event i might add another 10%. indicators are fine, but "feel for the market" is critical and saves lots of grief. when it's time to change course, just do it. market trades are best unless you are scaling in or out intraday, when trailing stops give you the ability to run with the trend.
if i were short, i would dump half of it on the open and would hope for some weakness in first hour to dump the rest; we are at or near ath's, a/d line is firm, so staying short is bold and dangerous even if the gap does not hold.
if weekend work suggests more rally, then i will try to get up to 60% next week.
#69
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Posted 03 February 2017 - 09:47 AM
added 5% on weakness after open. not always the smartest thing to do.
#70
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Posted 03 February 2017 - 09:57 AM
one of my trading rules on gaps: if the market holds the gap by the end of the first hour, then I expect the gap to hold; but i am also wary of the gap that holds but then trends lower from about noon eastern time. so i will be watching for those times and events. so far at almost 30 minutes in, gap is holding after 3 point spx pullback. now its close to hod.
