1565 replies to this topic

[Russ]

after 5 waves down nugt, gdx, hui etc should move much higher going into spring... 

[EHW]

Newest from Armstrong:

Strangely, gold has once again amazingly actually closed precisely on our Yearly Resistance number which was 1309.30 to be precise. Back in February 16, 2016, we wrote on the blog: "The 1309 is where we start to encounter the yearly resistance level." (https://www.armstrongeconomics...)

The broad channel from the 1970 low rests at the top-end at 1296.70 during 2018. This will be the important support to watch. Dipping below that will reinstate the bearishness near-term whereas gold is at least neutral.

yes and today is significant close- last day of the year, month, and week. so this close above 1300 is significant
looking for some consolidation should not be deep , but short in time and not deep in price
dharma

Anyone hear what Armstrong's yearly bullish reversal number for gold is?

[EHW]

Dont feel comfortable posting the whole thing, here are a few more important comments from him:


However, when we look at gold in Euros, it finished the year in a weaker position. This further implies that we will see dollar weakness BEFORE we get the major meltdown moving into 2021. ......

So while gold may retest the resistance in dollars, this still does not appear to be breakout until we see it rise in all currencies. Nonetheless, we are running out of time. Now the major low for gold at 1045 back in 2015 is a 3-year correction from the highest closing in 2012. Therefore, this is a good technical pattern that can hold. The worse case scenario is a 2018 low. However, any low in dollars after that pushes us off into 2021 and that could be the final outcome with a gold low and a massive dollar high that breaks the monetary system......

[Russ]

Dont feel comfortable posting the whole thing, here are a few more important comments from him:


However, when we look at gold in Euros, it finished the year in a weaker position. This further implies that we will see dollar weakness BEFORE we get the major meltdown moving into 2021. ......

So while gold may retest the resistance in dollars, this still does not appear to be breakout until we see it rise in all currencies. Nonetheless, we are running out of time. Now the major low for gold at 1045 back in 2015 is a 3-year correction from the highest closing in 2012. Therefore, this is a good technical pattern that can hold. The worse case scenario is a 2018 low. However, any low in dollars after that pushes us off into 2021 and that could be the final outcome with a gold low and a massive dollar high that breaks the monetary system......

Thanks for posting that EHW, I don't have the data going back to the 1970 low, so I am not clear on the Trendline that Martin mentioned. Interesting that he wrote the "worse[sic] case scenario is a 2018 low" then he hedged that statement and wrote that if the dollar makes new lows then that will push off the gold low into 2021. I used to subscribe to Martin's work and so did my past broker Ross Clark, I have great respect for Martin's work but there is always the alternate statement.

 

The fact that gold closed right on his yearly resistance number is neutral as he wrote. My charts previous to this show Gold has broken clearly above it's downtrendline from 2011, based on that it is hard to see it going back down below 1300 again, for now I think it's going to keep going up into March.

[Russ]

Here is the chart with the approximate support line in yellow mentioned by Martin Armstrong, below this line would turn gold bearish.

 

[dharma]

hadik

 

dharma , martin or not 18 will be the start and finish by 2022or so

[Smithy]

McClellan nails 2 important cycles  - 8yr and 13.5 month - says next 6 months are up.

 

https://www.mcoscill...s_8-year_cycle/

[crossd]

seasonal in gold..

 

dharma

 

http://seasonalchart...rmelection.html

 

if you look at the 4 yr election cycle..2018 is midyear..it's up all year for gold..

 

don

[Smithy]

Russ, for what it's worth, gold's low  in 1/19/70 was $34.75.

[Smithy]

dharma, when you say the gold bull will end around 2022, is that your view or Hadik's? 

If yours, can you explain how you get there?  TIA...