1565 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

Gold Tests The Breakout Again

Greg Schnell | February 15, 2018 at 11:47 AM

 

The chart of Gold is getting interesting again. It keeps retesting this level. There are reasons to believe the breakout is at hand. I have used GLD to represent Gold here.

 

 

The MACD is turning up above zero for the first time in 18 months shown on the chart.

This is also the two year anniversary of the commodity low in 2016 when everything started to kick up. One of the reasons that Gold is kicking up is the weakness in the USD. If that can continue, this will be an excellent trade. There are a couple of major hurdles for the USD crosses like the ($EURUSD) and the ($JPYUSD) that are in play. I'll have more of that in this evenings Commodities Countdown.

One of the concerns about Commodity related trades is how poorly the Canadian market is trading. It is down 7% on the year. All bases start somewhere. Maybe this is Canada's low and the commodity country index starts to improve from here. It's been a tough start to the year, not just the last few weeks. If the Commodity country indexes are struggling, it adds caution to commodity related trades for me.

 

We'll keep watching to see how it works out, but the setup is really nice on the GLD trade.

[gannman]

one other point if we actually have bottomed a massive wave 2 which started in the gdx aug 12 2016

 

then any pullbacks sb minor .  we shouldnt be giving back a whole lot as we would be in wave 3 now 

 

and i dont know if we have bottomed or not we may have the market itself will tell us. also like the 

 

action in gg very much thanks for bringing that one up senor i think that could be a real winner 

 

it has been a tough 18 months but all corrections eventually end 

[senorBS]

one other point if we actually have bottomed a massive wave 2 which started in the gdx aug 12 2016

 

then any pullbacks sb minor .  we shouldnt be giving back a whole lot as we would be in wave 3 now 

 

and i dont know if we have bottomed or not we may have the market itself will tell us. also like the 

 

action in gg very much thanks for bringing that one up senor i think that could be a real winner 

 

it has been a tough 18 months but all corrections eventually end 

agree, only "worry" I have here is if general stock market soon begins wave 3 or C down 12-16% to new decline lows and if that drags miners down with it. Perhaps miners correct this recent rally if that happens or they decouple, we see

 

Senor

[senorBS]

anyone see any news on AEM? Its down almost 5% and I thought it had decent earnings the other day as it has rallied, I don't own it but was looking at it. Gracias

 

Senor

[senorBS]

anyone see any news on AEM? Its down almost 5% and I thought it had decent earnings the other day as it has rallied, I don't own it but was looking at it. Gracias

 

Senor

just could not resist, bot a very small amount at 42.88,as always DYODD

 

Senor

[dharma]

agree the caveat is a crash in the broad market.  china is on holidays so i dont look for much to happen. there is the bradley on the 20th.   more sideways base building . the market is firm. gold has not backed off much and hovers in the 1350s   

powell has yet to tip his hand.  sure he talks , but we have yet to see what actions he actually does.  talking corrals the herd   

the backdrop w/ other commodities appears to be in a bullish position the elliott wave guy jeff kennedy( do you know him senor)  gave a webinar yesterday on his outlook for commodities. so i will watch it in a little while http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2018/02/18-02-15-Webinar-Replay-EWI.php?inf_contact_key=942b2b59477ef0391a8f5a4def60ff2c45a2e23926ee4a81e52f4b8bd764f73b  

dharma 

aem is still above last fridays lows.  i have a good position there. this is tempting though 

[senorBS]

agree the caveat is a crash in the broad market.  china is on holidays so i dont look for much to happen. there is the bradley on the 20th.   more sideways base building . the market is firm. gold has not backed off much and hovers in the 1350s   

powell has yet to tip his hand.  sure he talks , but we have yet to see what actions he actually does.  talking corrals the herd   

the backdrop w/ other commodities appears to be in a bullish position the elliott wave guy jeff kennedy( do you know him senor)  gave a webinar yesterday on his outlook for commodities. so i will watch it in a little while http://www.gannglobal.com/webinar/2018/02/18-02-15-Webinar-Replay-EWI.php?inf_contact_key=942b2b59477ef0391a8f5a4def60ff2c45a2e23926ee4a81e52f4b8bd764f73b  

dharma 

aem is still above last fridays lows.  i have a good position there. this is tempting though 

I do know Jeff as I worked with him in my time there, good guy and good analyst IMO. just not sue if AEM might needs to go below recent low at 41.56 area. Gotta say every time they try to slll gold lately it keeps coming right back, so far so goo though a near term correction would not surprise me here, but once we breakout above 1370-1380 IMO we could fly

 

Senor

[goldfungus]

 

anyone see any news on AEM? Its down almost 5% and I thought it had decent earnings the other day as it has rallied, I don't own it but was looking at it. Gracias

 

Senor

just could not resist, bot a very small amount at 42.88,as always DYODD

 

Senor

 

AEM is my largest holding. It's also the most expensive compared to my other miners. FWIW.

[dougie]

Building energy to challenge 1390 area?

[dougie]

The Barash county is that off the February low as we had an ABC up and are now starting a new impulsive wave down. The bullish count seems to be that we had a 123 up and are now in 4 down with five up to come