911 replies to this topic

[jabat]

 

[dharma]

fed tomorrow , us china trade talks continue. both sides want something to happen. but both are unyielding.  qt by the fed @ some point will be put on hold . sucking liquidity out of the system. is not going to happen for long, its the same effect as  raising rates.  cat and nvda coughed up yesterday .  2% gdp growth isnt much and we may not even have that

the fed is bed down in hotel california, i have been saying that for awhile.   once they demonstrate that by raising the white flag and start to lower rates./or ease off qt / or take a more accommodative stance its game on . and the game is stagflation. miners are in the gutter. the bear market occurred there for the sector.  from hated to loved  its coming going to take awhile.  and the new major entities paas, gold, nem   will need to buy to bolster reserves. 

dharma

[Russ]

Breaking resistance?... 

 

Edited by Russ, 29 January 2019 - 02:30 PM.

[gannman]

this trading since the 23 looks impulsive to me. the other advance 

 

from late nov into early january did not 

 

all fwiw

[dharma]

this trading since the 23 looks impulsive to me. the other advance 

 

from late nov into early january did not 

 

all fwiw

yes, so is this a C wave ?   there are a couple of things that bother me about this rally. one is  as russ shows above, the  miners are yet to break out. and there are days where they lead and days where they dont. overall the market doesnt seem to have the miners as a leader. silver is also not leading . since the top in bond in 1981 the world has been deflating.  that trend must reverse for silver to lead.   i am being patient. not adding. bu waiting for confirmations a monthly close in gold above the downtrend would be a nice indicator . the gdx above 22.5  would be a confirmation. and silver starting to rip and getting above 16. the rally is creating some excitement but not w/alot of substance. i do think that can all change. but i want to see it reflected in the market   if not  we may have to wait until october.  breaking out of the tr  would be a big clue!!!!

dharma

[gannman]

gld is overbought here so i expect a pullback

 

we will see how it holds up 

[dougie]

Well look at that

[Russ]

gld is overbought here so i expect a pullback

 

we will see how it holds up 

1362 is the real test, it must punch through there or more trouble will come, this is the number that Armstrong has mentioned before too.... 

[K Wave]

First big target of 22 hit on GDX....good place to lighten up a bit and see how things act after Fed...

Barring a complete collapse after Fed either today or tomorrow, then it will start to look like GDX has indeed reclaimed the 900 day MA, and once the 200 day MA kinks upwards, things should be back in bull mode.

 

GLD does look a bit extended here after the fill of the big June gap, with divergent daily momo on this last push up, so would not be surprised to see a back test of 120 area over coming weeks, before resuming the climb...

900 day is now turning up, and when 200 day also turns up, we should be in full ribbon roll to the upside (50 & 72 area already crossing upside over 900 & 200, which are are converging around 118 ).

Or it could just blow right on through upside, before finally consolidating a bit...perhaps as high as 130 area

Edited by K Wave, 30 January 2019 - 10:52 AM.

[dharma]

good to see kwave posting

fed on deck . india budget over the weekend(news from modi tends to disappoint his reign may be drawing to a close!?)

currie likes gold https://www.bloomber...right-now-video

of course w/gs they may get their customers long and then begin to short it. 

i like what i see , the significance lies overhead 22.5 for gdx and 1380 for gold take that out and the tr is a base. all in due time. 

one can only expect the great experiment of the fed will result in problems . sir alan the glib talker managed to keep their bungling ways in sight

waiting to buy on this pullback . 

dharma