254 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Thanks for the posts
If it werent for the NYMO and LQ being up so much
I say we topped overnight
That being said what goes up must go down
Maybe we finally get some pull back today
Probably a buyers opportunity

 

I hear ya - as said in video above if we drop overnight (we have a little) chance for at least a pullback .... i'm using 2581, then 2570 as main pivots here ST,

below those we might get that pullback ..fyi - LQ has dropped at open again but yesterday is V up ..but maybe that was just another 'Powell special' ...i'll see if how it goes today.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 11 January 2019 - 09:35 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Just focussing on VST here  -  I do think that 'lagged' pullback setup is on here now.

We took out 1st pivot, ST LQ dropped AM and not turned like yesterday (that last sell CCI signal is right on sell trigger now), and

50/50 type setup has turned down ...so, I'm looking for 2nd KP 2570 to get tested today ....then unless ST LQ turns up, we

finally can break that ( I see signs LQ is low on GSB today)...and take a run to 2550.

 

I'll leave 'buying op' or 'turn' to later ...hard to tell right here..so ST is my focus.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 11 January 2019 - 10:31 AM.

[Gumper]

If it's not proprietary, how are you measuring LQ?

Thanks in advance.

[EntropyModel]

If it's not proprietary, how are you measuring LQ?

Thanks in advance.

 

Hi Gumper.

 

Some of its proprietary but I shd be clearer, there are multiple LQ sources 

 - I look at Bond market (TNX/TLT) that is one potential source, under conditions where money moves out of bonds into stocks (which does not always

occur, money can move out of bonds into cash ...this is what happened near recent market top ..I explained in a post recently, about the 'bond pivot',

so when pension models see 'risk' ..they move to cash, out of bonds +stocks).

 - I look at certain funds, that related to this ..and are predictive of this.e.g. VUSTX and others.

 These are the longer trend LQ, off daily EOD charts.

 

When I talk about Short Term LQ - that is proprietary and relates to a discovery of patterns of one particular large program runs in the market i call the GSB.

 

Essentially - the following are the major forces up or down in market, and their sources of LQ.

Retail -  buy or sell or short: LQ money market funds, margin, shifts from short to long or long to short.

Pensions( programs mostly now) - buy or sell ( a few may short): LQ monthly inflows, assets shifts cash, bonds, stocks

Hedge funds - buy, sell or short: LQ  inflows/outlfows, and 'unknowns' ( I suspect black magic LOL)

 

GSB - BUY only program except on break of 'cascade pivot' : the program buys at certain price levels(key pivots) that are 'balance points' 50/50 ..essentially it nudges the market back up,

to entice buying by the above groups...there are THREE KEy PIVOTS on my GSB system, only if 3rd one breaks does the program SELL, then prices tend to plunge.

It essentially holds ST inventory ( bought using the ST LQ)..and sells it either to above groups, or if forced on break of cascade pivot ( recent OCt-Dec drop is an example of that).

 

When the GSB has enough St LQ - its enough buying power to hold the cascade pivot most of the time, to balance selling from retail, pensions, hedge funds ..BUT under certain conditions the pivots fail e.g. large sell programs by pensions or hedge fund liquidations ( likely, this is what occured OCt-Dec). 

[EntropyModel]

Just focussing on VST here  -  I do think that 'lagged' pullback setup is on here now.

We took out 1st pivot, ST LQ dropped AM and not turned like yesterday (that last sell CCI signal is right on sell trigger now), and

50/50 type setup has turned down ...so, I'm looking for 2nd KP 2570 to get tested today ....then unless ST LQ turns up, we

finally can break that ( I see signs LQ is low on GSB today)...and take a run to 2550.

 

I'll leave 'buying op' or 'turn' to later ...hard to tell right here..so ST is my focus.

 

Update - mess basically for now ! :-)

https://www.screenca.../t/fYu8sNnjGevW

 

The VSt is meandering its way to sell...that will be next shot at running down to test 2570.

Any 'news' on the tape will cause spike that liekly get reversed in this kind of environment.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 11 January 2019 - 12:04 PM.

[EntropyModel]

FYI - on the ST LQ..I don't think i've explain the how I use it very well..i'll take quick stab here.

 

I have a trading system of buy/sell signals - VSt, ST and hourly swing 

Then I look at price setups - and assess their odds of playing out, based on those signals.

..So far -this is pretty standard stuff.

 

THEN I look a the ST LQ - and assess is is HIgh, neutral, or LOW.

If ST LQ is:

1. LOW ( as most of Oct/Dec)-> It lowers odds of buy setups, increases odd of sell setup, more importantly maybe, it makes the trend moves bigger, and correctives smaller.

So If I have sell signal the 'risk/reward' is good/high , and buy signal risk/rward is poor/low.

 

2. If HIGH ( as now) - the opposite of (1)..

 

3. If neutral - I can ignore LQ.

 

Whether ST LQ is high/low/neutral comes from signals i've shown.

 

Now, there is also the ST LQ each day I refer to - I shd call that Very short Term LQ - and it has some infleunce on patterns that day..but its more difficult to assess, more of

art than science - but for today VST is kinda 'neutral' I wd say.

 

One more important trading aspect - when LQ is low, or neutral, trading signals/setup play out with high win/loss  - but when LQ is high or VERY high like now,

trading signals/setup fail more often, and market historic readings are common ( e.g. hence we got record reading on things like NYMO etc) ..so very high

LQ environment are 'difficult' to use signals, better to use Price PIVOT/support  as buy signals.

[uburack]

LQ = ?

 

thanks, td

[EntropyModel]

LQ = ?

 

thanks, td

 

Liquidity - money/cash/moola...anything that can be used to buy stocks.

[EntropyModel]

VST update - 

https://www.screenca...m/t/owUAPzgLfhA

[EntropyModel]

WAIT - I smell a rat ...

 

All week there is massive LQ under the market, but somehow, it can't break above 2600? ..spending now 4 session from

tight range (for THIS market!) 2560-2600 ...

 

Tons of buying. literally no selling (see A/d and up down volume - historic one sidedness)..so who was selling? (had to big whoever it was).

 

Now - the LQ is starting to drop ..its neutral at least today...so those sell programs cd take us down easily now, so where are they?

 

In other words - this last 4 days seems to have been about holding us here - and wasting TIME ....OPtions exp next Friday, maybe related to that? seems

a bit early.  Or maybe setting 'us' up , that what it seems like to me here, my top two 'fake out' setups here next week

1. gap it up mon  ...'its broken out! ' then take it down hard ....or

2. drop it 2550 ..'its topped' then rocket it up again to 2650.

 

Maybe last hour, or more like last 10minutes   will give a clue.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 11 January 2019 - 03:21 PM.