1010 replies to this topic

[gannman]

I am long like how things are acting. Saudi oil fields are now vulnerable to attack

That is not going away I am looking for a lot higher prices fwiw and a multi year bull move

With this situation rates are headed one way imo down a bullish environment for gold

[gannman]

And the fact gld traded above 142 today is st bullish imo

All fwiw

[dharma]

i dont know what happened but my post disappeared!!

senor  i have been pounding the table that miners are cheap not only since this correction but since the top in 11 . we  have been in a big deflation . i think this will change into stagflation, i just cant say when.  i expect this will be much like the 70s

iran is the enemy of the usa, it is seen as a terrorist state. it is also the enemy of saudi arabia on a religious basis . in irans version of Islamic lore the religious leaders rule the state. in the saudis version the kings rule the state. i cant help but wonder w/that situation and oil being soft worldwide. if saudi inflicted this situation on its self  will there be investigations? or will we just go after iran as the culprit for spreading terrorism. just thinking out loud.!!

i have said for months that i expect an event this fall . its crash season for the broad market . it seems ripe for disappointment.   powell decides on fed policy this week. in my core positions i am all in and plan on holding. i am not commiting any new  funds until i feel the coast is clear. i have never seen a crash,in 41 yrs of doing this where gold didnt get hit w/the broad market.

the market seems priced to perfection . it is ripe in my opinion

we are very early in this bull market. it has not been tricky or difficult . before the present correction the longest correction was 10 market days.  after this correction is over the next impulse will be the wave of recognition in the latter stages welcome the public

dharma

ps check edwards and macgee for  h&s patterns if this is or isnt wont matter, if it goes down. i believe the large inverse  h&s pattern in gold marks the end of the correction

Edited by dharma, 16 September 2019 - 11:04 AM.

[opinionated]

Thanks Gann,

 

For sharing your opinion, If it catches fire then old highs are only a day or two away.   For what ever reason Gold in the last 10 days has lost it's shine because this sudden belief that World Economy news was going to get better....  The Trade Deal was back on track and everything went risk on.  But I think those who actually look around know that is not the case and more likely just the opposite. The only canary in the coal mine to me is interest rates Wednesday.  I think we get a 1/4 point but some are hoping for 1/2 that to me is 50/50 Its the comments that matter.  Will Gold be disappointed with 1/4 an sell off?  

 

As I said a close over 1511 signals a test of the highs,...  But I'm not sure TA works as well with Commodities as it is usually event/perception driven.  

 

Ok I should stop babbling

 

Good Trades

[dougie]

I am going to talk my book but this is how I see gold/miners at the moment.  I held until early Sept based on similar run in 2007 and ultimately sold based on few technical factors (Demark 13, sentiment, relative value vs dollar and most importantly trend conclusion based on CCI). 

I am looking for not only correction but possibly big liquidity driven event soon that would crush this sector.  Basically sometime into late Oct to mid Nov.  Since I am speculating and I have no idea what future brings, I am only shorting via verticals in relatively small size.  If we do get an event, it's probably generational buy opportunity.  Either way, I am ready for any scenario.  I just won't fire on the long side until I see this downtrend loses it's steam.

 

As far as this oil related bounce, I think it's one or two day affair but nobody knows.  I expected a bounce and will let it play out.  The plan is to buy some put verticals tomorrow or Tue but let's see...

What do you have in mind for Crush?

[opinionated]

But standing back, not concerned with what this chart is....  What conclusion would you come to?  To me a big up move is very close... You?

 

https://invst.ly/cao52

[opinionated]

Yet another Upgrade to Barrick $(Gold) today... And Gold up... But the stock is Down?  Holy horse sh*t.....

[senorBS]

i dont know what happened but my post disappeared!!

senor  i have been pounding the table that miners are cheap not only since this correction but since the top in 11 . we  have been in a big deflation . i think this will change into stagflation, i just cant say when.  i expect this will be much like the 70s

iran is the enemy of the usa, it is seen as a terrorist state. it is also the enemy of saudi arabia on a religious basis . in irans version of Islamic lore the religious leaders rule the state. in the saudis version the kings rule the state. i cant help but wonder w/that situation and oil being soft worldwide. if saudi inflicted this situation on its self  will there be investigations? or will we just go after iran as the culprit for spreading terrorism. just thinking out loud.!!

i have said for months that i expect an event this fall . its crash season for the broad market . it seems ripe for disappointment.   powell decides on fed policy this week. in my core positions i am all in and plan on holding. i am not commiting any new  funds until i feel the coast is clear. i have never seen a crash,in 41 yrs of doing this where gold didnt get hit w/the broad market.

the market seems priced to perfection . it is ripe in my opinion

we are very early in this bull market. it has not been tricky or difficult . before the present correction the longest correction was 10 market days.  after this correction is over the next impulse will be the wave of recognition in the latter stages welcome the public

dharma

ps check edwards and macgee for  h&s patterns if this is or isnt wont matter, if it goes down. i believe the large inverse  h&s pattern in gold marks the end of the correction

as u know amigo am with you all the way on this, note CRB up big today over 4%, this crude rise IMO will only add to slowing economy/recession scenario and hence lower rates faster, am simply holding long as well

 

Senor

[dharma]

 

i dont know what happened but my post disappeared!!

senor  i have been pounding the table that miners are cheap not only since this correction but since the top in 11 . we  have been in a big deflation . i think this will change into stagflation, i just cant say when.  i expect this will be much like the 70s

iran is the enemy of the usa, it is seen as a terrorist state. it is also the enemy of saudi arabia on a religious basis . in irans version of Islamic lore the religious leaders rule the state. in the saudis version the kings rule the state. i cant help but wonder w/that situation and oil being soft worldwide. if saudi inflicted this situation on its self  will there be investigations? or will we just go after iran as the culprit for spreading terrorism. just thinking out loud.!!

i have said for months that i expect an event this fall . its crash season for the broad market . it seems ripe for disappointment.   powell decides on fed policy this week. in my core positions i am all in and plan on holding. i am not commiting any new  funds until i feel the coast is clear. i have never seen a crash,in 41 yrs of doing this where gold didnt get hit w/the broad market.

the market seems priced to perfection . it is ripe in my opinion

we are very early in this bull market. it has not been tricky or difficult . before the present correction the longest correction was 10 market days.  after this correction is over the next impulse will be the wave of recognition in the latter stages welcome the public

dharma

ps check edwards and macgee for  h&s patterns if this is or isnt wont matter, if it goes down. i believe the large inverse  h&s pattern in gold marks the end of the correction

as u know amigo am with you all the way on this, note CRB up big today over 4%, this crude rise IMO will only add to slowing economy/recession scenario and hence lower rates faster, am simply holding long as well

 

Senor

yes, noticed that crb responding to higher oil prices. in the 70s oil to gold a glove to a hand  we may correct more but the next leg is being set up. 

cbs are buyers.  folks what does that tell you!  this correction may be over it may last another month or 2 who knows. w/the breakout of the base gold has signaled its intentions. confidence in govt is eroding . confidence in currencies is eroding.  confidence in cbs will erode.  its all coming this way

dharma

as always i appreciate your input.   you are one of the best ellioteers around

 

[linrom1]

Unfortunately this move looks like it got some traction aka repeat of 2007-2008 Goldman Sach and Iran racketeering of oil to $150 unless administration and KSA choose not respond?