1010 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

 

 

 

 

 

And the fact gld traded above 142 today is st bullish imo

All fwiw

GLD could not even get back to the left shoulder on a war scar, does not look too bullish to me.

 

gld looks like 5 up from low to me but WTFDIK?

 

Senor

 

5 up from the May low Senor?  Am I confused, I thought you were bullish? 

 

where did I say "May", I meant short term from last weeks low

 

Senor

 

Ok gotcha. We will have to disagree on this,  as you know I'm looking for a low in early to mid Nov... 

 

maybe we do get a Nov low, but maybe it occurs AFTER silver makes a 5th wave high the next 2-4 weeks and then we correct that 5 up? Same possibility applies to GDXJ/XAU, we see

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 16 September 2019 - 04:18 PM.

[gannman]

like senor says russ there is a possible 5 up in gld here. we will see 

 

i am not bearish at all here maybe i am wrong we will see if we have 

 

more correcting to do its ok with me

[gannman]

and you have the same thing in slv a possible 5 up 

i

bottom line i dont think a bottom is that far away i think we are close 

 

and i dont think a huge amount of damage will occur to the metals or 

 

the miners here all fwiw 

[gannman]

i have a 55 trading hour turn on gld tomorrow at 1030 am 

 

lets see if it has any effect fwiw

[ryanoo]

gold dsi 57 at today's close.

2007-2011 bull run, this chart shows dsi pulled back from the ST highs of 97-98, but can't see how low.

https://pbs.twimg.co...AJ4XUAAQfrs.png

It looks like it is potential interim low during the 2002-2012 bull mkt.

https://pbs.twimg.co..._s2WkAEQJ-G.png

And only during the LT bull the DSI reached as high as 97 or 98, which was never touched in 2012-2018 

[risk_management]

 

I am going to talk my book but this is how I see gold/miners at the moment.  I held until early Sept based on similar run in 2007 and ultimately sold based on few technical factors (Demark 13, sentiment, relative value vs dollar and most importantly trend conclusion based on CCI). 

I am looking for not only correction but possibly big liquidity driven event soon that would crush this sector.  Basically sometime into late Oct to mid Nov.  Since I am speculating and I have no idea what future brings, I am only shorting via verticals in relatively small size.  If we do get an event, it's probably generational buy opportunity.  Either way, I am ready for any scenario.  I just won't fire on the long side until I see this downtrend loses it's steam.

 

As far as this oil related bounce, I think it's one or two day affair but nobody knows.  I expected a bounce and will let it play out.  The plan is to buy some put verticals tomorrow or Tue but let's see...

What do you have in mind for Crush?

 

 

I generally don't have targets.  I try to identify the trend and would ride it until it exhausts itself.

 

Keep in mind that I am trying to forecast a black swan event but the definition of black swan is that it can't be forecasted.  But I am a speculator.

[senorBS]

 

 

I am going to talk my book but this is how I see gold/miners at the moment.  I held until early Sept based on similar run in 2007 and ultimately sold based on few technical factors (Demark 13, sentiment, relative value vs dollar and most importantly trend conclusion based on CCI). 

I am looking for not only correction but possibly big liquidity driven event soon that would crush this sector.  Basically sometime into late Oct to mid Nov.  Since I am speculating and I have no idea what future brings, I am only shorting via verticals in relatively small size.  If we do get an event, it's probably generational buy opportunity.  Either way, I am ready for any scenario.  I just won't fire on the long side until I see this downtrend loses it's steam.

 

As far as this oil related bounce, I think it's one or two day affair but nobody knows.  I expected a bounce and will let it play out.  The plan is to buy some put verticals tomorrow or Tue but let's see...

What do you have in mind for Crush?

 

 

I generally don't have targets.  I try to identify the trend and would ride it until it exhausts itself.

 

Keep in mind that I am trying to forecast a black swan event but the definition of black swan is that it can't be forecasted.  But I am a speculator.

 

over the weekend we had a "black drone" event that IMO is a long term game changer as it shows how vulnerable these huge and

key installations are to relatively low cost drones, a new era may have been born and its a very scary one IMO

 

Senor

[senorBS]

everyone should take a peak at the daily and weekly CRB chart with todays huge Gap and rally day - looks pretty darn meaningful

to these old eyes

 

Senor

[AChartist]

Could be quite a different story like everything is now different. When did you ever see this not blamed on the patsie within say, first 5 minutes of "investigation".

Fake news hint: whoever knows for sure what isnt so within 5 seconds of event, is who did it (advance knowledge).

Everything is different. 

 

ZH today:

DOJ Accuses JPMorgan's Precious Metals Trading Desk Of Being A Criminal Enterprise

I was instructed that if a client wished to sell futures I should simultaneously place both bids and offers with the intent of canceling the bids prior to execution..."

[Russ]

Gold Futures chart should go down into Nov and close the gap at 1348... 

 

Edited by Russ, 17 September 2019 - 12:02 AM.