1010 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

gold back above 1500 after a possible "c" wave double bottom at 1482 - another "Fed report" bottom? we see but its hard for me not to like the action, I remain very long

 

BTW DSI yesterday in Gold at 47, 5-day at 55, I like that as well

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 19 September 2019 - 07:00 AM.

[crossd]

re bond yields:..No..market is not logical..

donc

[ryanoo]

well knowing your trading skills i suspect you sell that for a profit. I will be lightening up on the next wave higher

 

It's hard to beat LT B&H in a bull market.

[johngeorge]

Question for the board

US 3-MO 1.928%   US 10-YR 1.767%  My understanding is that is an inverted yield curve which means a recession is forthcoming.  Is there another interpretation I need to look at?  Thank you.

[senorBS]

well knowing your trading skills i suspect you sell that for a profit. I will be lightening up on the next wave higher

so far so good on the GDXJ buy into the close/after hrs at 37, looks for now like that was a fund/program sell and for once I was able to take nice advantage of it, case looking good at this pt for yesterday being a key low, and IMO "next leg" up has a decent chance to be a LEG to new highs, we see

 

Senor

Edited by senorBS, 19 September 2019 - 09:15 AM.

[dharma]

wanted to digest the results of fed speak. it will be inflationary, mildly . the big thing is they cut what they pay banks to store money at the fed.  which will incentivize banks to loan out money.  when the banks got money from us tax payers in 09 they didnt lend it out , they stored/stashed it at the fed. so money velocity didnt increase in fact it was another source of deflation . so w/lowering rates. 

and lowering the rate the fed pays to banks to stash money at the fed. i believe =mild inflation

as senor points out we double bottomed yesterday,  we are still short of my time window, but  fall doesnt come on the 1st day of autumn meaning this could be it 

for my gann work on price 1477 marks the end of the last cycle . the next cycle begins @1495 so over 1495 the market can probe higher numbers.  i am watching the square @1521 that is the magnet. bottom line the market looks healthy  many of my miners are in pennant patterns = a breakout of the pattern indicates much higher #s.

the bombing of saudi oil fields puts a geopolitical floor under gold  you know the industrial military complex wants to get somebody. anybody. china has made a 400 billion dollar investment in iran. that will complicate an attack on iran.  also russia is geographically close to iran.    will be back later.

dharma

i can be patient here.  breaking out of the 6 yr base is a big tell

 

the coast will be clear when kwave reappears. 

Edited by dharma, 19 September 2019 - 10:27 AM.

[senorBS]

wanted to digest the results of fed speak. it will be inflationary, mildly . the big thing is they cut what they pay banks to store money at the fed.  which will incentivize banks to loan out money.  when the banks got money from us tax payers in 09 they didnt lend it out , they stored/stashed it at the fed. so money velocity didnt increase in fact it was another source of deflation . so w/lowering rates. 

and lowering the rate the fed pays to banks to stash money at the fed. i believe =mild inflation

as senor points out we double bottomed yesterday,  we are still short of my time window, but  fall doesnt come on the 1st day of autumn meaning this could be it 

for my gann work on price 1477 marks the end of the last cycle . the next cycle begins @1495 so over 1495 the market can probe higher numbers.  i am watching the square @1521 that is the magnet. bottom line the market looks healthy  many of my miners are in pennant patterns = a breakout of the pattern indicates much higher #s.

the bombing of saudi oil fields puts a geopolitical floor under gold  you know the industrial military complex wants to get somebody. anybody. china has made a 400 billion dollar investment in iran. that will complicate an attack on iran.  also russia is geographically close to iran.    will be back later.

dharma

i can be patient here.  breaking out of the 6 yr base is a big tell

 

the coast will be clear when kwave reappears. 

Dharma this Repo situation is getting more and more interesting, from another board:

 

"

3rd day of Repo operations

is it $200B total now in 3 day days? maybe it'll blow over.

Copied from another board:

Shades of 2007/2008 From the National Bureau of Economic Research - 09/19/2019

"The financial panic of 2007-8 stemmed from a run on the repurchase or repo market - the primary source of funds for the securitized banking system -- rather than a run on monetary deposits as in earlier banking panics, according to a recent study by Gary Gorton and Andrew Metrick. Repo is a form of banking in which firms and institutional investors deposit money, by lending for interest, short term, and receive collateral as a guarantee. The authors define securitized banking as the creation of structured bonds from bank loans, such as mortgages, which are then used as collateral for repo. In Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo (NBER Working Paper No. 15223), they argue that securities created from loans that originated in the subprime mortgage market played a major role in inciting the event, but that ultimately it was the loss of liquidity at the firms that were the biggest players in the securitized banking system that led to the financial crisis."

 

and more again:

 

"

My understanding is it is the overnight lending between banks.  In 2008 with Lehman defaulting banks were so uncertain about the quality of other banks they stopped overnight lending.  That created a liquidity freeze, and the Fed stepped in with a trillion dollars immediately and added another 3+ trillion over the next few years. 

 

Fast forward to now.  The Fed raised rates while much of the western world is in negative territory and the Fed initiated QT, both remove liquidity.  That was a mistake, especially the QT.  I think they are undoing the $700B of QT.   I believe it is urgent, but not a catastrophic situation like 2008. 

 

It does make me think there is some big bank in the world right now that needs an injection of money much like Lehman did.  The Fed is more active than they were in 2008, so rather than wait for a complete rupture of the system like they did then the Fed is taking earlier, smaller steps to stem the problem.  

 

This could go on for a while.  Years even"

Edited by senorBS, 19 September 2019 - 10:44 AM.

[dougie]

 

well knowing your trading skills i suspect you sell that for a profit. I will be lightening up on the next wave higher

 

It's hard to beat LT B&H in a bull market.

 

yes

[dougie]

“What has happened in the repo market is far from a minor problem,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist for Jefferies. “That’s a financial crisis waiting to happen if they don’t get that under control.”

[dharma]

senor you are astute. the fed quietly doing repos has me  wondering what is going on. now i am not a fan of armstrong but i do read him , mostly to see what others are thinking. anyway, he is saying there is going to be a liquidity crises. he is also saying the move will be from public to private . folks are going to be distrustful of governments . some bank entity is in trouble. i keep an eye on db as they are the most obvious choice , or so it seems.  in the 08-09  blow up banks refused to lend to each other, as you have pointed out. when it gets really severe, cbs demand gold as payment from other cbs has the fed lost control of rates?

 on another note its been a few days since the saudi oil facility was taken out by inexpensive drones.  several parties have been pointed at. i am wondering if it is all a false flag operation and the whole thing was orchestrated by the saudis themselves. why not have the usa take out their enemy.???? stay tuned.   they may have some explaining to do!

got gold! 

dharma