1010 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

Thank you donc.  Most appreciated. 

[gannman]

I am watching db . Is that the cause of the jump in overnight funding rates I don't know

Could be

[ryanoo]

 

Question for the board

US 3-MO 1.928%   US 10-YR 1.767%  My understanding is that is an inverted yield curve which means a recession is forthcoming.  Is there another interpretation I need to look at?  Thank you.

 

look at US ISM Manufacturing..1st below 50 reading last month indicating recession BUT false signals in 2013 and 2015/16

donc...plus if that signal is true there is about a year and a half lead time..and stocks usually go up for at least a year..

 

Look at the entire curve. Overall a bit flatish, still normal. I don't know why pick two points 3mo/10yr or 2y/10y and say 'inverted'.  

https://stockcharts..../yieldcurve.php

[dharma]

that 1484 double bottom is very important   1923 high  1045 low   50%=1484 so 50% of the entire correction

so a very important level. so far i cant draw any conclusions as to the correction being finished , just need patience in here

there are so many spinning plates

dharma

dsi =42 % that is getting encouraging 

is fed ex sending a signal , is anyone listening

Edited by dharma, 20 September 2019 - 10:57 AM.

[ryanoo]

They (Powell) tried to downplay that the rate jitters, but their REPO is getting serious.

It's every single day next week.

https://twitter.com/...063275198918656

It doesn't look like a small thing.  2007-8 fin crisis started like this?

[hhh]

There's a serious dislocation between JDST and JNUG right now: change of 0.44% and 1.11% respectively at the same time.

[ryanoo]

There's a serious dislocation between JDST and JNUG right now: change of 0.44% and 1.11% respectively at the same time.

I also noticed the 3x etfs like ugld and uslv moving with their own % changes, not 3x of the futures (or  gld & slv) at times.  But they should fall to their expected values over time, right?  GDXJ is 0.26% now, so 0.78% for JNUG seems about right.  Those 3x etf buyers must be smoking weeds. 

[ryanoo]

Does anyone remember how the past QE's affected the gold and miners?  Looks as though the QE4, or a mini version of it, has started?

[hhh]

 

There's a serious dislocation between JDST and JNUG right now: change of 0.44% and 1.11% respectively at the same time.

I also noticed the 3x etfs like ugld and uslv moving with their own % changes, not 3x of the futures (or  gld & slv) at times.  But they should fall to their expected values over time, right?  GDXJ is 0.26% now, so 0.78% for JNUG seems about right.  Those 3x etf buyers must be smoking weeds. 

 

They've been very good to me. Just don't hold them.

[senorBS]

Gotta say I like the past few days action, gold looks like it will close the day and week above 1510, miners strengthening today after 

yesterdays very good session, can't ask for much more from a bullish perspective as odds increase a significant corrective low may be in place and a leg to new highs underway. got gold and miners?

 

Senor