23 replies to this topic

[Rich C]

The property of bitcoin that keeps me out of it is that I do not know what factors drive its value (if it has any).  With the dollar, we know there are many drivers that affect its value such as the size of the US deficit, the level of interest rates in the US, the relative strength of the US stock market which affects the international flow of funds, and the host of economic factors on the other side of the dollar trade.  So you have the size of deficits in Euro land, their stock market strength, etc.

 

What drives the value of the bitcoin up or down???  Is it just emotion?  Count me out, unless I understand what drives it to go up and down.

[hhh]

A security solely driven by emotion would be the ultimate candidate for TA actually. Not sure that creature exists.

[MDurkin]

Nav just showed up on twitter.

[pedro]

"What drives the value of the bitcoin up or down???"

 

The desire by residents of a country facing capital controls to get their funds abroad.

 

And since they tend to want to do that in a pinch, and then quickly, they wouldn't be concerned about whatever price volatility over 24 or 48 hrs btc experiences.   They just want OUT of local fiat.

Edited by pedro, 23 July 2019 - 05:27 PM.

[CLK]

Since everybody "knows" we are going to 250k,. and nobody had a clue in 2015, maybe the top is in and going to 1000 now. This could be a 10 year long bear market for bitcoin into 2027. Just don't count your money yet. And be ready to buy if it crashes.. . 

 

https://invst.ly/beztk

 

A more bullish case, could take it to 350k into a 4 year top. I want to see the current uptrend line hold.

 

https://invst.ly/bezx7

Edited by CLK, 25 July 2019 - 07:57 PM.

[CLK]

I think the fundamentals are bullish for Bitcoin.

 

[CLK]

I had expected the monthly to go sideways into year end consolidating the gains. A test of 7400 may happen, but using the last bear market as a fractal, a final drop to the 1.187 should end any downside at 6200 worst case. In bull markets, often a bearish, say, H&S will form but at the right shoulder abruptly rallies out of it where in a bear market it would have rolled over and proceeded to the measured move target area. So, a bearish pattern here could just suddenly fail and start a big rally. The 2018 top to the 1 Fib target took about 3 months, this time it is taking about half as long to get there, so the 2018 bear lasted a year, this one I give it 6 months which would end around year end as I expected on the monthly. This  is worst case and the bull market could resume at any time between now and year end.

 

https://invst.ly/bfihu

Edited by CLK, 27 July 2019 - 04:56 PM.

[SemiBizz]

[Rogerdodger]

Arbman is quite the computer genius and has produced various programs for well known Hollywood movies.

He eventually turned that talent towards financial analysis and at one point had to quit public market commentary after contracting his creations.

 

With the development of A.I., I bet he is on his own private island about now...pondering his next project.

 

Brilliant guy for sure.

[CLK]

Solid reversal for Bitcoin here at support. Unless the channel drops out, could break the triangle higher. 

What I said earlier about bull markets and bear markets, I feel this is a secular bull market again, so 

I have to be prepared for bullish resolutions of bearish setups.

 

https://invst.ly/bfqga