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Fed rate cut could signal the stock marketís peak vs GOLDMAN SPX 3400


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 08:14 PM

Goldman forecasts SPX 3100 at end of 2019 and 3400 at end of 2020. I don't see SPX 3400 until after 2020, maybe in 2021.

 

Taking the other side is this guy:

 

 

Opinion: This Fed rate cut could signal the stock market’s peak

"The same school holds that too aggressive a monetary policy will lead to rising debt levels, asset bubbles and even greater wealth inequality. For instance, internationally, quantitative easing has allowed bonds valuations to soar, helped support equity market valuations and importantly, given politicians in countries like Italy and the U.S. the cover to engage in increasingly risky fiscal policy, to run up debt and avoid economic reforms.

More dovish voices will point to the many risks from abroad. But the Fed can do little to resolve these.

In Asia, the trade dispute between the U.S. and China is the obvious risk. The Chinese economy is still fragile in terms of its growth momentum.

The risk that investors may not have priced so far is a deepening of the growing tensions in Hong Kong. In the context of a multipolar world, the protests represent a contest between two systems. In the background is perhaps the most overvalued property market in the world, the fifth-largest stock exchange and a currency peg (to the U.S. dollar) that is becoming more costly to support.

Hong Kong is a risk to the U.S. because a crisis there could push up the dollar, lead to a round of de-risking internationally, and fuel fears of a macro shock across Asia.

More broadly, the U.S. stock market approaches the Fed meeting from the wrong side in the sense that valuations are very high historically (though not wildly stretched) and corporate profit margins may be at a peak. There is also the possibility that the dollar strengthens further, hitting export-oriented tech stocks.

Overall, the risk from here is that markets decide that monetary stimulus is in the price now, with economic and geopolitical risks rising, investors begin to reduce risk through the remainder of the summer."

https://www.marketwa...peak-2019-07-30



#2 robo

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 09:12 PM

"Goldman forecasts SPX 3100 at end of 2019 and 3400 at end of 2020. I don't see SPX 3400 until after 2020, maybe in 2021."

 

I'm not making a call here. I will trade the next trend whatever it might be. (Up or Down) However, when the Fed started the last rate cut cycle the market was moving down. The first cut was .25 points.... This time the market is moving up (already priced in) What happened in the weeks after is on my chart. So what will happen this time probably will be different....  The 2007 rate cut data and what happened in the first few months after for these indexes....  The miners could be the best trade, but moved down at first.....

 

IAU, HUI, SPX, IWM, XES....  

 

https://stockcharts....247&a=679659351

 

The LT data.....

 

https://stockcharts....243&a=677494393


Edited by robo, 30 July 2019 - 09:18 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#3 hhh

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 09:28 PM

Nice chart; interesting that the HUI starting going down almost immediately.



#4 robo

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 09:40 PM

Nice chart; interesting that the HUI starting going down almost immediately.

Thanks!    Looking to buy GDXJ and XES for a MT trade at Vanguard. Both indexes are free trades.....  Unless it's different this time. Trading VXF and it remains on a hold position (long) for now.... Watching XES, and I will be VST trading NUGT. I reduced positions (Risk Management) going into this week....  Maybe a VXX trade coming our way.... 

 

I only day-trade that now...... 2 hour chart of what I'm currently trading....

 

https://stockcharts....322&a=678106953

 

Good Trading!

 

https://stockcharts....433&a=678106938

 

Miners....  The trend remains UP!

 

https://stockcharts....067&a=677881474


Edited by robo, 30 July 2019 - 09:48 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 05:25 AM

"Good" news from Trade Talks. according to one of the unofficial official twitter account of Chinese Govt:

 

  1. Based on what I know, Chinese and US negotiators had an efficient and constructive deep exchange on Wednesday. The two sides discussed increasing purchase of US farm products and the US side agreed to create favorable conditions for it. They will hold future talks.

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    Chinese and US negotiators started talks again. Based on what I know the atmosphere is good. I hope this beginning indicates the future talks will be smoother than various pessimistic predictions.



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 05:26 AM

I still do no have a DAILY VIX BUY, close but no cigar, so far

 

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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VIX on a near term buy signal, eh.. Bad for stocks if this doesn't reverse. Bollinger Bands getting tight on the S&P 500, which indicates a big move is coming. Markets generally rally into the fed decision??

EAyn0cWWsAAN-FP.jpg
1:36 AM - 31 Jul 2019


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 05:28 AM

"bad" news from Trade talks, it apparently ended after less than a day?? WTF

 

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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US, China trade meeting ends with sharp response to Trump

 

Talks between U.S. and Chinese trade officials seeking ways to end a year long trade war lasted barely half a day before ending on Wednesday with a terse response from China’s Foreign Ministry to U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning not to stall.

As U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin landed in Shanghai on Tuesday, Trump accused Beijing on Twitter of stalling, and warned of a worse outcome for China if it continued to do so.

 

This week’s meetings, the first in-person trade talks since a G20 truce last month, amounted to a working dinner on Tuesday at Shanghai’s historic riverfront Fairmont Peace Hotel and a half-day of negotiations on Wednesday. Neither team made immediate public comments.

Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, who leads the Chinese delegation, waved off Lighthizer, Mnuchin and other U.S. officials as their motorcade pulled away from Shanghai’s Xijiao State Guest Hotel following a group photo session that concluded around 1:45 p.m. [0545 GMT], about 30 minutes before it was originally scheduled to begin.

A U.S. government official told Reuters that the U.S. officials were headed to the airport.

https://www.cnbc.com...er&par=sharebar



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 05:31 AM

This is also evident in McOsc

 

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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NASDAQ - New highs and new lows - not looking like something you should be a part of. Showing considerable weakness at the highs in the NASDAQ

EAynNJkWwAEDzVz.jpg
1:33 AM - 31 Jul 2019
 
 


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 05:32 AM

See here:

 

https://www.marketin...llan-oscillator

 

and here:

 

McClellanOsc_594.gif

 

https://www.mcoscill...t_breadth_data/



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 05:34 AM

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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NASDAQ Breadth - looking a lot like the end of April - Sell in July and go away??? July is one of those Top of the market months??

EAyibQvXkAASEmH.jpg
1:12 AM - 31 Jul 2019