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Fed rate cut could signal the stock marketís peak vs GOLDMAN SPX 3400


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 05:39 AM

Basically, I am looking for a 25bps with more dovish talk as FED assures market, and politicians, it will continue to cut, and maybe even get back into 

QE. Markets may rally 3 to 5 %, SPX 3120/30 MAX, then decline for a few weeks. 

 

Markets would prefer 50bps and a FED wait & see but FED does not want to panic the market and prefers to do it gradually. I think there is a 40% probability FED will cut 50bps.

 

But, soon, market will realize there is only so much FED can do and thus FED will be pushing on a string. 

 

I still think I can get QQQ > 200 and VIX below 18 for the SHORT TRADES of the year...LT portfolio is almost bare but already up 13% for 2019 so I will wait, patiently, for better entries.

 

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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Today is the long awaited #Fed-decision day. Market fully (100%) prices a 25bp cut & implies an 18% chance of a larger 50bp cut. BUT it’s worth noting that the last time Fed began a series of rate cuts, in Sep2007 or Jan2001, their opening move was a 50bp cut, DB’s Reid says.

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3:08 AM - 31 Jul 2019


#12 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 05:40 AM

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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It feels like global macro risks are building for late summer/autumn (hard Brexit, US/China trade spat, US/EU trade issues to come before yr-end and global manufacturing effectively in recession) but all of us are reluctant to fight the CenBanks. Is this a trap, DB’s Reid asks.

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1:08 AM - 31 Jul 2019


#13 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 05:41 AM

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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Global mkts in jittery mode before Fed decision & as Trump’s tweets slaughter trade deal hopes. On pos side, Apple reported encouraging outlook desp 12% decline in iPhone sales. Bonds gain w/US 10y yield at 2.05%, Bunds -0.41%, Dollar slightly lower w/Euro $1.1160. Bitcoin $9.7k.

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11:29 PM - 30 Jul 2019


#14 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 05:42 AM

Many watching VIX/VXX and Options data

 

Todd Salamone @toddsalamone
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20-day buy (to open) call/put volume ratio on $VIX options at highest level ever $SPX

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9:41 AM - 30 Jul 2019


#15 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 07:35 AM

Trade war, military war....?

 

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The White House is monitoring what a senior administration official called a congregation of Chinese forces on Hong Kong’s border https://bloom.bg/2yp7aWn 

 



#16 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 07:45 AM

  • The Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, is heading for its sixth monthly decline in seven months this year, which would mark the first time it has fallen in six of the first seven months of a year since 1992, per Dow Jones Market Data. Wall Street's "fear gauge" has slid with traders anticipating that U.S. stocks will remain steady. 


#17 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 07:46 AM

Hit & Run NQ daytrading this morning and for rest of the day.....

---

Some may consider this is as important as the FED announcement:

 

China's Caixin manufacturing index for July is out at 9:45 p.m.



#18 redfoliage2

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 08:36 AM

Trade war, military war....?

 

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The White House is monitoring what a senior administration official called a congregation of Chinese forces on Hong Kong’s border https://bloom.bg/2yp7aWn 

 

No place will allow such a riot.  If it's in the US police already started shooting them.  Expect a rally after the Fed rate cut, may not be today though...............


Edited by redfoliage2, 31 July 2019 - 08:41 AM.


#19 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 09:40 AM

ONE SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL ABOUT ....  SHORTING THE MARKET TODAY or TOMORROW

 

The failure of trade talks will force the FED to raise by 50bps  and also start QE 

 

Wait for the spike up or rally into the end of week for IT & LT shorts

 

For ST, short with tight stops, do not overstay the trade.

 

We may have already seen today's SPX and NQ low



#20 dTraderB

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Posted 31 July 2019 - 10:02 AM

  1. VIX is up from 12 to 14+ this week. So is today the day Pony tells us to buy protection? More

  2. DXY working on 9th straight green day. DSI was 90 yesterday