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The C word - market acting very weak, could plunge


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 03 August 2019 - 03:05 PM

David Larew @ThinkTankCharts
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VIX - Buy signal with the extreme move - Bad for stocks, but maybe too extreme as the S&P 500 price is hanging below the Bollinger Band. Favors sideways to up near term.

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1:31 AM - 3 Aug 2019


#12 dTraderB

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Posted 03 August 2019 - 03:06 PM

Expect a Chinese reaction next week:

Beijing was very disappointed with the latest flip-flops of the US. It's understood Chinese side always has a plan B, which includes a series of countermeasures. "China won't fight the battle unprepared. You will see it,"a well-informed official told me on condition of anonymity.

7:58 AM - 2 Aug 2019


#13 dTraderB

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Posted 03 August 2019 - 03:08 PM

Getting real hot in the Trade War ring:

 

Washington's capriciousness has become the biggest obstacle to China-US trade talks. White House statement said trade talks in Shanghai are constructive, but President Trump announced new tariffs soon. Can the US be trusted?

 

Mr. President, your brag about higher tariffs contradicts common sense of the economics. It also goes against your actual strong wish for a trade deal. Since tariff is so good, trade talks seem unnecessary. Interesting. Are American voters so easy to fool?

Hu Xijin 胡锡进 added,

Donald J. TrumpVerified account @realDonaldTrump
Things are going along very well with China. They are paying us Tens of Billions of Dollars, made possible by their monetary devaluations and pumping in massive amounts of cash to keep their system going. So far our consumer is paying nothing - and no inflation. No help from Fed!
8:58 AM - 3 Aug 2019


#14 dTraderB

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Posted 03 August 2019 - 03:10 PM

Really?

 

JPMorgan: "our view is that the BOJ will cut the short-term policy rate by 20bp to -30bp in September."

 

 

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"One Of The Two Markets Will Prove Wrong": Why JPMorgan Thinks The Fed Failed

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"One Of The Two Markets Will Prove Wrong": Why JPMorgan Thinks The Fed Failed



#15 dTraderB

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Posted 03 August 2019 - 03:11 PM

  1. 10 dma of total put/call ratio

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  2.  

    10 dma of equity put/call ratio

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  3.  

    NYSE new lows jump to highest since May.

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  4.  

    Naz new lows jump to highest since May.

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#16 dTraderB

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Posted 03 August 2019 - 03:12 PM

I am still  90% cash... but I can't stay on the sidelines for much more. 
Will start buying, gradually

 

Helene Meisler @hmeisler
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Barron's thinks Cash is a great idea. The Case for Going Into Cash Now https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-case-for-cash-now-51564759828  via @BarronsOnline



#17 dTraderB

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Posted 03 August 2019 - 03:13 PM

  • The SPX restarted a tight correlation with the 1999 pattern in mid-January 2019. It was working great until last week. So either the higher high last week is a break from 99's pattern, or the market has gone off track, will soon realize it, & work hard to make up for lost time.

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58xtpQ7u_bigger.jpgTom McClellan @McClellanOsc
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I got mocked by a few people when I posted this chart on Monday. Here is an update.

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6:59 AM - 2 Aug 2019


#18 dTraderB

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Posted 03 August 2019 - 03:16 PM

Inflation, finally?  Nah, don't think so, not as yet

 

Charlie BilelloVerified account @charliebilello
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US Hourly Earnings were up 3.2% over the past year. Have outpaced Core CPI (2.1% currently) for 80 consecutive months. #payrolls

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6:13 AM - 2 Aug 2019

 

Charlie BilelloVerified account @charliebilello
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Payrolls: +1.51% YoY & market is expecting 2 more rate cuts by yr-end. Lowest YoY growth of expansion: Sep 2016 to Sep 2017 (+1.38%). Fed hiked rates 3x during this period. Highest YoY growth of expansion: Feb 2014 to Feb 2015 (+2.25%). Fed held rates at 0% during this period.

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6:06 AM - 2 Aug 2019


#19 dTraderB

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Posted 04 August 2019 - 03:22 PM

Some more down, he says:

 

Johns Charts @johnscharts
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$SPY weekly

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7:40 AM - 4 Aug 2019


#20 dTraderB

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Posted 04 August 2019 - 08:32 PM

YUAN-ponizing

 

 

zerohedge @zerohedge
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Here we go: CHINA'S OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKENS PAST 7 PER DOLLAR TO RECORD LOW PBOC SETS YUAN FIXING WEAKER THAN 6.9 FOR FIRST TIME THIS YEAR The currency war begins

6:18 PM - 4 Aug 2019
 
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