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LANCE: "Technically Speaking: Stocks In A Bloodbath, Look For A Sellable Rally"


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:22 AM

I am in full agreement with Lance's opinion - market us setting up for a big drop

 

Caveat: if FED cuts before Sep meeting and floods the system with QE then markets will rally at least 5%

 

But, that postpones the inevitable: a big drop is coming; in the interim, trade ST with the market and be prepared.

 

I had one of my best NQ & VXX days yesterday as the market quickly recovered from overnight lows then soared, pulled back, then roared ahead.... great market moves to daytrade. 

 

Summary

Any rally should be used to reduce portfolio risk in the short term as the test of the 200-dma is highly probable.

Given that monthly data is very slow-moving, longer-term signals can uncover changes to the trend which short-term market rallies tend to obfuscate.

Interestingly, despite recent "all-time" highs in the S&P 500, the monthly signals have all aligned to "confirm" a "sell signal."

With both earnings and corporate profits under pressure, this may be the start of a bigger corrective process like we witnessed in 2018.

https://seekingalpha...tRoadblock=true
 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:40 AM

More talk, but it is the FED that can stop the bleeding since there is little hope of a meaningful trade deal in the near future:

 

Hu Xijin 胡锡进 Retweeted CNBC

This kind of soft tone by Trump administration is tailor made for US stock markets. Their lies have become bubbles flooding the US stock markets. Whether or not there will be negotiations, China won't yield to Washington's hegemony. We're prepared for new US tariffs.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进 added,

0:40
CNBCVerified account @CNBC
“The president has said, you know, if you make a good deal or good progress on a deal, maybe he'll be flexible on the tariffs,” Trump's top economic advisor @larry_kudlow said. “He's open to it, that's really the key point." https://cnb.cx/2yJAU0d 
10:09 AM - 6 Aug 2019

Edited by dTraderB, 07 August 2019 - 06:41 AM.


#3 dTraderB

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:44 AM

Liz Ann SondersVerified account @LizAnnSonders
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Unsustainable divergence between dividend growers’ underperformance & declining Treasury yields? @SoberLook #AlpineMacro

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4:42 AM - 7 Aug 2019


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:46 AM

Eli Mintz @VixCentral
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Aug 6: $VIX futures contango settled at -1.27% This is called backwardation There is a small tail wind for $VXX, $UVXY, $TVIX

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1:37 PM - 6 Aug 2019


#5 dTraderB

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:49 AM

Possible, but the bearish tone of the market may still rpevail

 

VIXTrader @Albanyfx
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We could just FOMO rally rest of the week with Fed put and Trump put still in play.

2:07 AM - 7 Aug 2019


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:53 AM

Yes, but the FED and President Trump have many more weapons available....it could be a long & painful trade war for both nations

 

Stevie Vixx @vixcontango
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Stevie Vixx Retweeted Bloomberg Economics

There problem with a yuan devaluation is not the economic advantage, but that it will tank stocks. Trump has a weakness - the stock market - and China will exploit it.

Stevie Vixx added,

Bloomberg EconomicsVerified account @economics
The U.S.-China confrontation has turned dramatically – and not to Trump's advantage, despite his tweets (via @PeterCoy) https://bloom.bg/2KvlphX 
3:20 AM - 7 Aug 2019

Edited by dTraderB, 07 August 2019 - 06:54 AM.


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:56 AM

  1. German 10Y -0.587%. This is insanity More

  2. 3 Central Bank Shocks Unleash Overnight Yield Crash, With Yuan On Verge Of Collapse

     

    30Y just 3bps above effective Fed Funds rate. Entire US yield curve about to invert

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    4:21 AM - 7 Aug 2019


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:57 AM

BloombergVerified account @business
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Central banks accelerate aggressive rate cuts, another oil bear market, and a milestone for gold. Here’s our daily markets briefing https://bloom.bg/2yL1jKW 

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4:45 AM - 7 Aug 2019


#9 dTraderB

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 06:59 AM

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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TROUBLE! Copper-to-gold ratio has fallen to a level that indicates traders haven’t been this worried about global econ since Trump was about to win the White House, BBG reports. With gold climbing and copper falling, it now takes fewer than 4 ounces of gold to buy a ton of copper

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1:28 AM - 7 Aug 2019


#10 dTraderB

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 07:00 AM

Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner
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#Gold Future tops $1,500 as investors and Central Bankers seek shelter from the storm and as volume of negative yielding debt hit fresh high of $15tn. Total ETF Gold holdings at highest level since 2013. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/gold-approaches-1-500-as-investors-seek-shelter-from-the-storm 

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12:48 AM - 7 Aug 2019