191 replies to this topic

[punter]

long gold 1500,  short sp 2925

 

trading the gap test both up and down. scalping, not big momo move.

 close gold long for lunch money. maybe i can meet the busty lady again tomorrow, buy her lunch. think another entry later or tomorrow asia time.

[punter]

 

long gold 1500,  short sp 2925

 

trading the gap test both up and down. scalping, not big momo move.

 close gold long for lunch money. maybe i can meet the busty lady again tomorrow, buy her lunch. think another entry later or tomorrow asia time.

 

 

long gold 1496.

[punter]

 

 

long gold 1500,  short sp 2925

 

trading the gap test both up and down. scalping, not big momo move.

 close gold long for lunch money. maybe i can meet the busty lady again tomorrow, buy her lunch. think another entry later or tomorrow asia time.

 

 

long gold 1496.

 

 

 

closed long near 1500. waiting for chance to reload long. still keeping sp short (paper loss).

 

recent news point to the chinese ready for sanctions against fedex. maybe break below 2019 lows.

 

decided to add short, 2929. maybe crap during us open.

 

reopen gold long 1500

Edited by punter, 20 August 2019 - 02:52 AM.

[punter]

below being my estimates last week. As more data from global markets come in, I am making more amendments. There is an increasing chance we see a rally to year end. Still awaiting more confirmation. Yes, I am slow; always been the dimmest student in class.

 

Geopolitical posturing that I sense from analysts is some kind of grand bargain being strike.

 

US and China will reach an agreement in form of no deal. Trump wins bcos tariff in place, China wins bcos no concession made. it's kind of like breaking up with girlfriend and she says 'we can still be friends'......

 

meanwhile, China will move center of gravity to Shenzhen and Shanghai; significantly reducing the value of western business interests in HK.

 

there are still some old British trading houses, with roots in pirating/opium smuggling from the 19th century, maybe I can pick it up for pennies in due course.

 

I probably have to move to Shanghai in time to come.....

 

 

high chance of sep rate according to CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com...-80percent.html

 

I am doing my own modeling. Reaction in Asian markets should generally be positive but it won't last long. I think positive effect only last till early oct, up till Chinese CPC anniversary on 1 oct. thereafter I think more downside. will look at us markets when I have more data points.

 

there was a recent forum where 2 very experienced (and retired) traders spoke, one specializing in Hang Seng and the other Taiex. The hang seng guy has a target of 22000, which is about 20% down from current levels. the taiwan guy had a divergent view, ATH for Taiex and U.S. markets.

 

most reports which I have seen from sell side for this year have all been way off the mark.

 

Being bearish, I need more moderation in place so I don't get married to a biased trade. Yes, my 'dumb and dumber' trade. Im watching index levels, from generally higher or lower, when rate cut is announced. that will factor big for me.

 

- i think higher levels means we will see ATH. right this is unlikely based on my biased view. but i prefer this direction. everyone will be happier.

 

- from lower levels, which is my current view, all bets are off. we are going to have lots is unhappy people except maybe for people looking to rebuild from ashes.

 

don't know how to post pics here, so all musing to myself is text based. kind of like back to the 80s on my VAX green screen terminal.

Edited by punter, 20 August 2019 - 04:04 AM.

[punter]

 

 

 

long gold 1500,  short sp 2925

 

trading the gap test both up and down. scalping, not big momo move.

 close gold long for lunch money. maybe i can meet the busty lady again tomorrow, buy her lunch. think another entry later or tomorrow asia time.

 

 

long gold 1496.

 

 

 

closed long near 1500. waiting for chance to reload long. still keeping sp short (paper loss).

 

recent news point to the chinese ready for sanctions against fedex. maybe break below 2019 lows.

 

decided to add short, 2929. maybe crap during us open.

 

reopen gold long 1500

 

 

 

close gold long, still maintain sp short

[punter]

I need to caveat 'increasing chance', bcos my data points still have room for a major down move. Recent statements coming out of the US is generally interpreted as acknowledgement as being the 'black hand' behind hong kong social unrest. Can't rule out that both sides reach for the nuclear option. No clear view until Sep.... sigh.... 

 

 

 

below being my estimates last week. As more data from global markets come in, I am making more amendments. There is an increasing chance we see a rally to year end. Still awaiting more confirmation. Yes, I am slow; always been the dimmest student in class.

 

Geopolitical posturing that I sense from analysts is some kind of grand bargain being strike.

 

US and China will reach an agreement in form of no deal. Trump wins bcos tariff in place, China wins bcos no concession made. it's kind of like breaking up with girlfriend and she says 'we can still be friends'......

 

meanwhile, China will move center of gravity to Shenzhen and Shanghai; significantly reducing the value of western business interests in HK.

 

there are still some old British trading houses, with roots in pirating/opium smuggling from the 19th century, maybe I can pick it up for pennies in due course.

 

I probably have to move to Shanghai in time to come.....

 

 

high chance of sep rate according to CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com...-80percent.html

 

I am doing my own modeling. Reaction in Asian markets should generally be positive but it won't last long. I think positive effect only last till early oct, up till Chinese CPC anniversary on 1 oct. thereafter I think more downside. will look at us markets when I have more data points.

 

there was a recent forum where 2 very experienced (and retired) traders spoke, one specializing in Hang Seng and the other Taiex. The hang seng guy has a target of 22000, which is about 20% down from current levels. the taiwan guy had a divergent view, ATH for Taiex and U.S. markets.

 

most reports which I have seen from sell side for this year have all been way off the mark.

 

Being bearish, I need more moderation in place so I don't get married to a biased trade. Yes, my 'dumb and dumber' trade. Im watching index levels, from generally higher or lower, when rate cut is announced. that will factor big for me.

 

- i think higher levels means we will see ATH. right this is unlikely based on my biased view. but i prefer this direction. everyone will be happier.

 

- from lower levels, which is my current view, all bets are off. we are going to have lots is unhappy people except maybe for people looking to rebuild from ashes.

 

don't know how to post pics here, so all musing to myself is text based. kind of like back to the 80s on my VAX green screen terminal.

 

[punter]

 

 

 

 

long gold 1500,  short sp 2925

 

trading the gap test both up and down. scalping, not big momo move.

 close gold long for lunch money. maybe i can meet the busty lady again tomorrow, buy her lunch. think another entry later or tomorrow asia time.

 

 

long gold 1496.

 

 

 

closed long near 1500. waiting for chance to reload long. still keeping sp short (paper loss).

 

recent news point to the chinese ready for sanctions against fedex. maybe break below 2019 lows.

 

decided to add short, 2929. maybe crap during us open.

 

reopen gold long 1500

 

 

 

close gold long, still maintain sp short

 

 

reopen gold long 2504

[punter]

 

 

 

 

 

long gold 1500,  short sp 2925

 

trading the gap test both up and down. scalping, not big momo move.

 close gold long for lunch money. maybe i can meet the busty lady again tomorrow, buy her lunch. think another entry later or tomorrow asia time.

 

 

long gold 1496.

 

 

 

closed long near 1500. waiting for chance to reload long. still keeping sp short (paper loss).

 

recent news point to the chinese ready for sanctions against fedex. maybe break below 2019 lows.

 

decided to add short, 2929. maybe crap during us open.

 

reopen gold long 1500

 

 

 

close gold long, still maintain sp short

 

 

reopen gold long 2504

 

 

close 1 sp short keeping 1 think low wed or fri . hang seng target 25800

Edited by punter, 20 August 2019 - 08:51 AM.

[punter]

every short comes with a heavy heart. Im afraid thanos snap this fingers. many people will die.

[punter]

 

 

 

 

 

 

long gold 1500,  short sp 2925

 

trading the gap test both up and down. scalping, not big momo move.

 close gold long for lunch money. maybe i can meet the busty lady again tomorrow, buy her lunch. think another entry later or tomorrow asia time.

 

 

long gold 1496.

 

 

 

closed long near 1500. waiting for chance to reload long. still keeping sp short (paper loss).

 

recent news point to the chinese ready for sanctions against fedex. maybe break below 2019 lows.

 

decided to add short, 2929. maybe crap during us open.

 

reopen gold long 1500

 

 

 

close gold long, still maintain sp short

 

 

reopen gold long 2504

 

 

close 1 sp short keeping 1 think low wed or fri . hang seng target 25800

 

 

added to sp short 2921. gold long now under water. may add to gold long tomorrow.