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Lift off....new SPX Highs then down ....


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#31 dTraderB

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 12:09 PM

Closing 2 lots TLT

Still holding 4

 

Not a big profit but I am trying to close all my open positions, if possible, before 4pm EST tomorrow

 

The other 4 TLT short lots are almost flat but will SHORT much higher, next week or later



#32 dTraderB

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 03:05 PM

I am comfortable about closing LONGS and waiting out the market during the crazy few hours until we got sharp NQ drop in the final hour

 

Mrkets are always manipulated but today's manic manipulation was too obvious to miss and I have learned that such blatant market manipulation does not end well and it is best to stand aside.

 

This may continue tomorrow and in the next few months -- one hopes NOT because it is almost impossible to trade such markets

 

Markets may try to end at a record SPX level tomorrow but I am not confident it can hold those gains for too long.

 

Still, the BULLS are in control and one must trade accordingly



#33 robo

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Posted 14 September 2019 - 01:13 PM

The trend remains up, but IWM starting to have some trouble..... Sorry, and not meant to offend, but I don't give a crap about any other index since I trade VXF....  I also trade the gold miners....  (VXF is the S Fund for the TSPer's)

 

Another whipsaw?  We shall see!

 

https://twitter.com/...erp|twgr^author

 

Good Trading!

 

Getting closer to a VST trade using TVIX..... Day 8 (long) for this trade.....

 

https://stockcharts....248&a=688002768

 

The move down for the miners continues....

 

https://stockcharts....744&a=688002081

 

Jeff Clark's Market Minute

Here’s How We Get Our Decline Signal…

 

If you’ve kept up with the Market Minute this week, you know Jeff has been warning that the current bullish phase for the broad stock market is nearing its end.

 

To recap: The S&P 500 gained about 30 points from the Monday open to its Thursday peak of about 3020. But it stalled… It went basically nowhere on Friday, closing at 3007…

 

In the end, the S&P gained just half a percent this week.

 

And now, for reasons I’ll explain today, the next most likely move is down.

 

The VIX options “crystal ball” Jeff showed you Friday was our first clue. When traders are willing to pay more for VIX calls than the equivalent puts, they’re betting on an increase in volatility. That’s generally bad news for the broad market.

But what has me convinced is the action in the high-yield bond sector.

 

The iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG) – which Jeff took a look at Wednesday – shows the risk appetite of the market. The more that investors pile into risky high-yield corporate bonds (junk bonds), the more likely it is that the broad stock market will climb.

But right now, the risk appetite is waning. Here’s the chart…

 

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/


Edited by robo, 14 September 2019 - 01:18 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#34 Harapa

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Posted 14 September 2019 - 01:52 PM

 

Getting closer to a VST trade using TVIX..... Day 8 (long) for this trade...

ATM, my models suggest VXX not rising > 5% from last 13TD lowest low. The models do change intraday but unlikely to do so on Monday. Disclosure:I am a VXX options trader.

 

 

The VIX options “crystal ball”

VIX OI tends to fall near the SPX top, it has been rising for the past 7-10 days. Just an observation: VIX option traders are not a smart bunch... 90% VIX calls expire worthless.


Edited by Harapa, 14 September 2019 - 01:55 PM.


#35 robo

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Posted 14 September 2019 - 06:40 PM

 

 

Getting closer to a VST trade using TVIX..... Day 8 (long) for this trade...

ATM, my models suggest VXX not rising > 5% from last 13TD lowest low. The models do change intraday but unlikely to do so on Monday. Disclosure:I am a VXX options trader.

 

 

The VIX options “crystal ball”

VIX OI tends to fall near the SPX top, it has been rising for the past 7-10 days. Just an observation: VIX option traders are not a smart bunch... 90% VIX calls expire worthless.

 

Thanks.


“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#36 tradesurfer

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Posted 14 September 2019 - 08:02 PM

What about the 50 cent option trader that bought 200,000 Vix calls end of July.  He made over 200 million from that trade.

 

And apparently 50 cent is back.   Yesterday bought huge position again

 

$VXX Buyer 95,000 $VIX October16th $24 calls for 59 cents. huge!

 

 

 

Also we have a bullish gartley pattern in the VIX, a Bearish Bat in the DIA and a bearish Gartley in the QQQ


Edited by tradesurfer, 14 September 2019 - 08:07 PM.


#37 robo

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Posted 14 September 2019 - 08:32 PM

What about the 50 cent option trader that bought 200,000 Vix calls end of July.  He made over 200 million from that trade.

 

And apparently 50 cent is back.   Yesterday bought huge position again

 

$VXX Buyer 95,000 $VIX October16th $24 calls for 59 cents. huge!

 

 

 

Also we have a bullish gartley pattern in the VIX, a Bearish Bat in the DIA and a bearish Gartley in the QQQ

The indicators I use are lining up for a trade..... Will it be a winner or a loser?  We will have to wait and see, but I will be taking a VXX trade soon....

 

Good Trading next week.....

 

https://stockcharts....587&a=688002768

 

U.S. equity bear markets are boringly similar to each other, but are radically different from bull markets.

 

Far too many investors have no idea how to act during U.S. equity bear markets. These aren't that rare but each time investors are confident that we aren't in a bear market until it's far too late to sell at favorable prices. During the final months of 2018 we experienced corrections exceeding 20% for nearly all U.S. equity indices including the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. The corrections during the final months of 2019 will be at least as great and probably somewhat more intense. Paradoxically investors are least interested in taking action when it is most favorable to do so and thereafter become especially anxious to unload their shares whenever the next bottoming process is already underway.

 

Kaplan

 

https://truecontrari...k.blogspot.com/

 

https://seekingalpha...y-energy-shares


Edited by robo, 14 September 2019 - 08:38 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore