40 replies to this topic

[alexnewbee]

IF it breaks up out of the Flag we could see 3050 very quickly.

In fact. See the same, may be 3100.
Our a bit higher, but if you expect 50-80% decline in the next 2 years, it is not so important.

[redfoliage2]

I believe your right red,

 

But Most are looking and placed money on the first week in Oct.  I think it will be the middle of the second.

 

And it seems ALOT of selling has been going on for the reallocation,  Many stock held by institution have been plunging.   So the end of quarter may have been taking profits. 

 

Them (Also) getting ready for this widely held thought that Oct 1st would begin the massive decline.   

 

IF/When they see the market not doing so they (May) be forced to cover/buy back these positions.

 

I have two Bell weathers to my watch list.  AMT and DRI...  They are both very strong stocks like the fangs. I went long both of them yesterday, and continue to hold Gold Short positions.

 

But this is about opinions and I run hot and cold like many in this business.

 

Pull up any weekly chart,  A perfect cup and handle.  IF it breaks up out of the Flag we could see 3050 very quickly.

When the market operators trying to hold up a market that is fundamentally topped and technically topped eventually they will fail - badly.  Just a matter of time.  Some of them may not be willing to hold thru even next Monday...................

Edited by redfoliage2, 27 September 2019 - 11:29 AM.

[diogenes227]

Margin debt can stay at these leves for 100 Years

What we need is a catalyst element...

 

1) Dot Com Bubble

2) Iraq war

3) Subprime mortgage crisis

 

4)????

 

How about some dummies try to ban Chinese stocks from US markets?

 

[tradesurfer]

Who is holding short through the weekend ??

 

monday bounce or gap down ?

[redfoliage2]

The market is just recently IT topped and selling into bounces should work well.  But will we see a bounce Monday?  Or we could see a Black Monday ..............

Edited by redfoliage2, 27 September 2019 - 03:01 PM.

[opinionated]

Want a great laugh?

 

I think we rally hard next week to old highs Minimum,  Went flat ahead of the weekend in my Long Equities which were down about 5% But held my Short Gold position,  I think gold is going is headed to 1460 

 

I will re-enter long positions Monday morning (IF) we are not having the expected Black swan event.

[dowdeva]

Someone's bought/sold almost 180K contracts on SPY 303 for Sept 30 expiry.  At this time of writing, it is about 100K

 

We'll know Monday who whether they were buying or selling.

[Harapa]

More interesting is 30,400 contracts for OCT18 SPX 2700 PUT @ 2.60 ( ~ 8 mil)

[cycletimer]

Margin debt can stay at these leves for 100 Years
What we need is a catalyst element...
 
1) Dot Com Bubble
2) Iraq war
3) Subprime mortgage crisis
 
4)????

4 will be the collapse of the REPO market that the FED is attempting to bailout,, to the tune of $70 billion per night. At some point the6 run out of money OR....even worse, the REPO problem remains unsolvable longer than the FED remains solvent....

[blustar]

I only see a 10% correction Oct 9 to Nov 4. The surprise should be October 2 to Oct 9 where I expect wave C up from 2886 to near 3055. About 5-6% plus I dont think we get much below 2722 this year if at all. Big rally nov/ dec and maybe even into Jan 2020. The first quarter I see trouble like oct/dec 2018 about 20%