Member
Posted 26 September 2019 - 11:20 AM
Your welcome Diogenes,
by the way, thanks for your link about how you trade. I vaguely remember having read it some time ago, but
am still an options premium seller by and large. However, my short term forecasting has become a lot better,
so will try that soon.
best, gis
Yay another option seller, boring but profitable!
Meanwhile on the "boring" buy side - the 299put, Friday's expiration.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
Member
Posted 26 September 2019 - 12:17 PM
The IBB is ALREADY crashing. the canary in the coal mine !!
This is a RISK OFF signal bit time... look for a waterfall and IBB as the lead sled dog....
Member
Posted 26 September 2019 - 12:35 PM
By the way bitcoin seems to be the second canary in the digital mine
bitcoin crash is RISK OFF leading signal
bitcoin one of the most speculative assets out there
Member
Posted 26 September 2019 - 01:10 PM
From the link:
Well, it was a great year for the likes of SWAV, PINS, ZIM, BYND, SOLY, that is until summer. While none of these stocks have been stopped out (the high of the first day) they have not been going well since summer but as can been seen in the chart panel below there were opportunities to take profits to preserve profits, especially in crazy run ups in say SWAV or the famous IPO for BYND.
Sometimes when stocks just go silly even the most disciplined IPO investor needs to take notice and thank his or her lucky stocks.
In the larger market picture, this is the kind of weakness that can be seen in many sectors. It is just easy to see here.
IPOs - a stealth bear market since summer
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
Member
Posted 26 September 2019 - 01:56 PM
50% drop...would mean market TOP and bull market end. Are we there ? Nope. Climbing the wall of worries is what the market does when it rises. I will start to worry when papers and tv say that economy is going wonderfully. There you will have the market top.
Edited by andr99, 26 September 2019 - 01:57 PM.
forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard
Member
Posted 26 September 2019 - 09:32 PM
Tradesurfer thanks for pointing out IBB and bitcon. I "coined" that term a few years ago before anyone else.
Member
Posted 26 September 2019 - 10:41 PM
It's very simple... To many people are calling for a crash... And far to many are positioned for it. We have had a internal correction just enough to reset most indicators.
Peek at the put/call ratio.... Don't get me wrong I am Bear, But things are setting up under the surface. Watch the bull flag... watch the cup/handle on the weekly... We should break down here but as weak as we have been for 3 days and golds been selling of? Think about it. How could the boyz take the most peoples money.
It might be to easy to be a bear,... for a few weeks. I am thinking a disappointment on the trade front around Oct 10-14th
As I have said in other threads I have Gold projections to 1460 and spx to 3060-3100 ST....
Member
Posted 26 September 2019 - 11:57 PM
From the link:
At one point, the founder and CEO of TLRY, because he owned so much stock in his heralded IPO, was something like the fourth richest man in the world…for a day. But now that day is done.
The chart panel below tells the rest of the story and there is not much more to say about that.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
Member
Posted 27 September 2019 - 09:14 AM
After this end of the quarter hold up there will be a resolution in October that is not going to be good................
Member
Posted 27 September 2019 - 10:04 AM
I believe your right red,
But Most are looking and placed money on the first week in Oct. I think it will be the middle of the second.
And it seems ALOT of selling has been going on for the reallocation, Many stock held by institution have been plunging. So the end of quarter may have been taking profits.
Them (Also) getting ready for this widely held thought that Oct 1st would begin the massive decline.
IF/When they see the market not doing so they (May) be forced to cover/buy back these positions.
I have two Bell weathers to my watch list. AMT and DRI... They are both very strong stocks like the fangs. I went long both of them yesterday, and continue to hold Gold Short positions.
But this is about opinions and I run hot and cold like many in this business.
Pull up any weekly chart, A perfect cup and handle. IF it breaks up out of the Flag we could see 3050 very quickly.
