by a guru of Elliott's wave theory that a 10% drop in the spx is starting soon. I don' t believe it will, but this is the right occasion to demonstrate if that theory is worth something.....
I' ve been warned...
Started by
andr99
, Oct 31 2019 05:59 PM
16 replies to this topic
#1
andr99
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Posted 31 October 2019 - 05:59 PM
forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard
#2
tradesurfer
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Posted 31 October 2019 - 08:01 PM
Well there is massive buying of VIX call options with moonshot strike prices... so maybe the black swan finally arrives...
#3
kssmibotm
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Posted 31 October 2019 - 08:46 PM
There are several bullish and bearish Elliott Wave counts in play. Any good EW practitioner would wait for an impulsive wave in one direction or the other before committing to a count. Your EW guru is allowing emotions to influence his/her forecast rather than EW theory.
People think the Holy Grail is something looked for but never found. In fact, it is something often found but rarely recognized.
#4
da_cheif
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Posted 31 October 2019 - 09:06 PM
There are several bullish and bearish Elliott Wave counts in play. Any good EW practitioner would wait for an impulsive wave in one direction or the other before committing to a count. Your EW guru is allowing emotions to influence his/her forecast rather than EW theory.
there is not several ewave counts .....there is only ONE count....the rite one
#5
andr99
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Posted 01 November 2019 - 02:05 AM
I' ve known this guy for a long time and I can say he is a serious person. So definitely we are at a bifurcation point. I believe the spx will break up, he believes it will break down. If he is right I will have to re-consider Elliott, if he is wrong I will throw that theory into the wc for the n-th and last time.
Edited by andr99, 01 November 2019 - 02:06 AM.
forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard
#6
Douglas
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Posted 01 November 2019 - 04:34 AM
andr99, ask your "guy" what his alternate count is. Every so called Elliott Wave guru that I've ever seen always has one, and more than half the time it projects in the opposite direction of his primary count. Elliott Wave works great in hindsight, but in foresight only on average about as often as a tossed coin. Hot streaks are possible with good setups as with most all indicators, but it always eventually comes a cropper. Ultimately predicting alone will only give you cracked crystal balls. Follow the trend my friend, of course, with an ever vigilant trailing stop.
Regards,
Douglas
Edited by Douglas, 01 November 2019 - 04:38 AM.
#7
hhh
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Posted 01 November 2019 - 07:27 AM
I use EW continuously for day trading and I'd be lost without it. It identifies setups in real time all the time. Yesterday, shortly after the 9:30 am EDT open, the Spoos had a perfect setup for a plunge and that's exactly what happened. Judging a theory by one practitioner is not wise IMO.
#8
andr99
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Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:46 AM
don' t get me wrong. I' m not listening to anyone other than myself when trading and I know what I' m doing when trading. But if someone you have come to know very well who has proven to be a good trader, sends you an alert of a 10% drop when everything you look at points up, don' t you ask yourself the reason why of this diverging opinion between yourself and the proven elliottist ? I don' t use Elliott and don' t believe it works, so that he might prove me I' m wrong.........or else Elliott is done for me forever.
forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard
#9
hhh
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Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:55 AM
In science, a hypothesis can only be falsified by contradictory evidence. Failure to find the contradictory evidence does not indicate the hypothesis is true, just that it isn't false, yet. This is a somewhat subtle distinction that is often misunderstood.
Example 1:
Hypothesis: there are no black swans.
Evidence: 1000 white swans flying over.
Results: null, nada, nothing
Example 2:
Hypothesis: there are no black swans.
Evidence: 1000 white swans flying over and 1 black swan among them.
Results: hypothesis is false.
#10
tsharp
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Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:13 AM
by a guru of Elliott's wave theory that a 10% drop in the spx is starting soon. I don' t believe it will, but this is the right occasion to demonstrate if that theory is worth something.....
I'm not an EW Rugu, but I've been on the same count - wave-(iv) - since January 2018... the problem for most, is not differentiating corrective from impulsive fractals... the US markets have been in a corrective fractal since January 2018... the target for wave-(x):(iv) is ~3290 in late December or early January 2020, then next year down in wave-(y):(iv) to probably the ~2750 range... then to the moon and probably SPX 8,000-10,000 by 2032.
Edited by tsharp, 01 November 2019 - 11:22 AM.
