Equity put call dives even lower to 0.47, 10 day is still buried in max complacency. Rallies have been modest and sluggish and require liquidation breaks, hunting for liquidity in a field of crowded longs.
5:50 AM - 15 Nov 2019
Looks like January 2018, deja vu all over again?
Started by
dTraderB
, Nov 15 2019 08:41 AM
26 replies to this topic
#12
dTraderB
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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:05 AM
Fed’s Kaplan: Tariffs Putting Sand In The Gears - Makes Manufacturing More Challenging
5:45 AM - 15 Nov 2019
#13
robo
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Posted 15 November 2019 - 11:08 AM
LOL..... The trend remains up Brother, but I went flat..... Waiting on a VXX buy signal, but none yet.
In my opinion this is a terrible trading system.... Having lots of historical charts doesn't make you money in a market like this one. The trend remains up until it's not. More importantly, I trade what is happening NOT what I think will happen....
10:45 Markets Up Triple Digits On Trade Hopes As Breadth Is Weak & Slipping
My system remains on a hold long positions..... Day 26 since the buy signal.....
Good Trading to you!
Edited by robo, 15 November 2019 - 11:09 AM.
" “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
#14
12SPX
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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:25 PM
Did they close the market early, its barely moved in an hour? Sure gives you a good feeling this is a healthy market!!!
#15
robo
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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:32 PM
Did they close the market early, its barely moved in an hour? Sure gives you a good feeling this is a healthy market!!!
LOL.... looks that way for some indexes. A slow and steady move up.... IWM back above the 10 DMA after moving under it for 2 days..... Watching the show..... To many extremes for me to hold long positions......
Day-trading only... VXX moving down much bigger today.... How many times will these guys get stopped out trading VXX and TVIX in a market moving up... The VXX smashers be hard at work.... The guy I posted a tweet for above continues to try and pick a top.... LOL.... At some point he will be correct. However, still NO BUY signal for VXX yet - as the trend remains up!
I trade VXF and it remains on a hold long position.... Day 26 since the buy signal and a sell for VXX The Top pickers are getting stopped out again.....
Good Trading!
https://stockcharts....639&a=698911440
Edited by robo, 15 November 2019 - 01:37 PM.
" “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
#16
dTraderB
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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:43 PM
Added VXX FEB calls, paid a lot but that's how I trade Options.
89% of RISK CAPITAL used
Now down almost 22%
In January 2018, was down 44% max intra day, next day went to 46%, and then next day markets swooned.....
Looks like I will be down at least 28 to 35% before this ST or IT top
Precisely my thoughts but it could be as high as 50% up move on VXX (that is not as much as it sounds!)
IMO, conditions are in place for a counter-trend (+5%ish) move in $VXX. $SPX, $VIX expirations Vol of SPX, VIX and VIX futs is very low VIX, VVIX recent +tive corr with SPX VIX index MACD cross this wk VVIX MACD cross this wk Poss bottom on our thrust indicator
6:22 AM - 15 Nov 2019
#17
dTraderB
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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:45 PM
no, it is more about politics, trade, etc; but, ultimately FA, and to a lesser extent, TA, will be the main factors in IT market direction
Breadth indicators are rolling over and the markets trek higher...traditional TA is NOT working.
8:59 AM - 15 Nov 2019
#18
12SPX
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Posted 15 November 2019 - 02:02 PM
Very unusual to see this low of volume on an expiration day however it is an off month not a quarterly. December is looking fun for sure with this big a move to end this cycle!!
#19
robo
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Posted 15 November 2019 - 02:05 PM
no, it is more about politics, trade, etc; but, ultimately FA, and to a lesser extent, TA, will be the main factors in IT market direction
Breadth indicators are rolling over and the markets trek higher...traditional TA is NOT working.
8:59 AM - 15 Nov 2019
I agree with everything you said above ..... I wait to buy VXX.......
Good luck on your trade...... The extremes are getting more extreme...... We are getting closer to a pullback for sure.....
Day 27 since the VXX sell signal.....
https://stockcharts....467&a=699284166
The LT data....
https://stockcharts....741&a=696890125
Edited by robo, 15 November 2019 - 02:10 PM.
" “There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore
#20
redfoliage2
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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:45 PM
A selling in December is likely to avoid possible higher capital gain taxes from 2020 and beyond if Trump loses in the presidential race ...........
