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Looks like January 2018, deja vu all over again?


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:01 AM

Marc Eckelberry @AheadoftheNews
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Equity put call dives even lower to 0.47, 10 day is still buried in max complacency. Rallies have been modest and sluggish and require liquidation breaks, hunting for liquidity in a field of crowded longs.

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5:50 AM - 15 Nov 2019


#12 dTraderB

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:05 AM

LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk
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Fed’s Kaplan: Tariffs Putting Sand In The Gears - Makes Manufacturing More Challenging

5:45 AM - 15 Nov 2019


#13 robo

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 11:08 AM

LOL.....  The trend remains up Brother, but I went flat.....  Waiting on a VXX buy signal, but none yet.

 

In my opinion this is a terrible trading system....  Having lots of historical charts doesn't make you money in a market like this one.  The trend remains up until it's not. More importantly,  I trade what is happening NOT what I think will happen....

 

10:45 Markets Up Triple Digits On Trade Hopes As Breadth Is Weak & Slipping

 

https://twitter.com/...erp|twgr^author

 

My system remains on a hold long positions..... Day 26 since the buy signal.....

 

Good Trading to you!


Edited by robo, 15 November 2019 - 11:09 AM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#14 12SPX

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:25 PM

Did they close the market early, its barely moved in an hour?  Sure gives you a good feeling this is a healthy market!!!swoon.gif



#15 robo

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:32 PM

Did they close the market early, its barely moved in an hour?  Sure gives you a good feeling this is a healthy market!!!swoon.gif

LOL....  looks that way for some indexes. A slow and steady move up....  IWM back above the 10 DMA after moving under it for 2 days.....  Watching the show.....  To many extremes for me to hold long positions......

 

Day-trading only...  VXX moving down much bigger today.... How many times will these guys get stopped out trading VXX and TVIX in a market moving up... The VXX smashers be hard at work....  The guy I posted a tweet for above continues to try and pick a top....  LOL....  At some point he will be correct. However, still NO BUY signal for VXX yet - as the trend remains up!

 

I trade VXF and  it remains on a hold long position....  Day 26 since the buy signal and a sell for VXX  The Top pickers are getting stopped out again.....

 

Good Trading!

 

https://stockcharts....639&a=698911440


Edited by robo, 15 November 2019 - 01:37 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#16 dTraderB

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:43 PM

Added VXX FEB calls, paid a lot but that's how I trade Options.

 

89% of RISK CAPITAL used

 

Now down almost 22%

 

In January 2018, was down 44% max intra day, next day went to 46%, and then next day markets swooned.....

 

Looks like I will be down at least 28 to 35% before this ST or IT top

 

 

Precisely my thoughts but it could be as high as 50% up move on VXX (that is not as much as it sounds!)

 

Matt Thompson, CFA @dynamicvol
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IMO, conditions are in place for a counter-trend (+5%ish) move in $VXX. $SPX, $VIX expirations Vol of SPX, VIX and VIX futs is very low VIX, VVIX recent +tive corr with SPX VIX index MACD cross this wk VVIX MACD cross this wk Poss bottom on our thrust indicator

6:22 AM - 15 Nov 2019

 



#17 dTraderB

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:45 PM

no, it is more about politics, trade, etc; but, ultimately FA, and to a lesser extent, TA, will be the main factors in IT market direction

 

EagleSeagle @b_seagle
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Breadth indicators are rolling over and the markets trek higher...traditional TA is NOT working.

8:59 AM - 15 Nov 2019


#18 12SPX

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 02:02 PM

Very unusual to see this low of volume on an expiration day however it is an off month not a quarterly.  December is looking fun for sure with this big a move to end this cycle!!  



#19 robo

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 02:05 PM

 

no, it is more about politics, trade, etc; but, ultimately FA, and to a lesser extent, TA, will be the main factors in IT market direction

 

EagleSeagle‏ @b_seagle
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Breadth indicators are rolling over and the markets trek higher...traditional TA is NOT working.

8:59 AM - 15 Nov 2019

 

I agree with everything you said above .....  I wait to buy VXX.......

 

Good luck on your trade......  The extremes are getting more extreme...... We are getting closer to a pullback for sure.....

 

Day 27 since the VXX sell signal.....

 

https://stockcharts....467&a=699284166

 

 

 

The LT data....

 

https://stockcharts....741&a=696890125


Edited by robo, 15 November 2019 - 02:10 PM.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side”   Jesse L. Livermore


#20 redfoliage2

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 09:45 PM

A selling in December is likely to avoid possible higher capital gain taxes from 2020 and beyond if Trump loses in the presidential race ...........