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Banning Travel is a Bad Move, Mass COVID-19 Testing is Key

COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS TRAVELBAN SILVER overblown? needmoretests

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#1 orange

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 04:50 AM

I'll start by saying the panic we are seeing is somewhat overblown. With proper behavior and actions you can limit your expose to COVID-19. I still go to work, eat out, and buy what I want. I just go about my day with caution. However, if you are of poor health, older generation, or have are immunosuppressed you should very well avoid people. There are some schools which remained open last week and still had no known cases.

 

The majority of elderly people in the assistant living in Kirkland ended up dying at the hospital. (I live in Kirkland). It wasn't until a few days ago that there were enough tests to test those who were already known to have the virus ONLY AT THAT ASSISTED LIVING. The US has tested less people than China was testing in ONE DAY. Some people will tell you it's not a big deal because so many people die from other diseases, car accidents, disasters. It's a big deal because no one is immune. It could literally infect EVERYONE leaving the hospital unable to handle those who might be saved by treatment. The death rate is MUCH higher than the flu.

As for the Seattle area, movement of people is like a slow Sunday. People are not going out and this is seriously going to hurt the economy. I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime.

This move to ban travel from Europe is absolutely a mistake. The travel bans put in place by countries hasn't worked. Airline companies are already struggling, and this just makes things worse. Great, you've prevented people from coming into the country who are MAY already be sick but you've done absolutely nothing to deal with those who are walking around spreading COVID-19 in the US already.

The main problem in the US is there are not enough tests. Until that changes, the US is going to be unable to manage this crises. Look at Italy. If enough people start getting sick (and they will), hospitals will be unable to handle the mass of patients. Instead of banning travel, the best idea is to verify those coming into the country with tests. Ideally you would test EVERYONE at the slightest hint they may have it. Unfortunately they're are no tests to do so!

 

Just look at Iran and Italy. To stop this virus, you have to do what China did - lockdown a city, or actively test as many people as possible. China did both.

 

The US has had WEEKS to prepare, and it's like we are starting as if this whole thing was new as of one week ago. On the bright side, I'm willing to bet we will see some type of low this week. Whether that be preceded by a real, final crash or not. If we do crash, I'll be buying. I have a long time to live - if COVID-19 doesn't kill me!

 

I actually think the travel ban will be lifted before the 30 days are up. I'm long silver and some gold. We are definitely going to see de-valuing of the dollar and massive attempts to solve the manufactured recession by throwing as much printed money our cloth and ink reserves have.


Edited by orange, 12 March 2020 - 04:53 AM.

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#2 ryanoo

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 07:35 AM

This will eventually infect 75% of population, and the current effort in many countries should be mitigation, not containment.  USA is probably too late to contain it anyway.  Lack of face masks will be really bad.   I guess the critical thing right now is to keep the number of patients who will need ICU at a level the hospital facility can handle.  And it can get out of control very quickly.  Look at the number of days between a few cases and a few hundred-thousand cases with many death.  Local community outbreak can overwhelm the local hospital capacity very quickly.  Its very scary.  Colleges are closing down less because they worry the infection of students, but more because they could transmit virus to the elderly and weak people, the people at risk.



#3 MikeyG

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 07:49 AM

I think it's a good idea. The more we can flatten the bell curve, the better. 

 

I am not sure why they are saying testing is not available?

 

Someone in our office returned from Italy and had symptoms. They cleared out the office and gave her a test. 

 

Thank God, test came back negative. 



#4 diogenes227

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 08:50 AM

I'll start by saying the panic we are seeing is somewhat overblown. With proper behavior and actions you can limit your expose to COVID-19. I still go to work, eat out, and buy what I want. I just go about my day with caution. However, if you are of poor health, older generation, or have are immunosuppressed you should very well avoid people. There are some schools which remained open last week and still had no known cases.

 

The majority of elderly people in the assistant living in Kirkland ended up dying at the hospital. (I live in Kirkland). It wasn't until a few days ago that there were enough tests to test those who were already known to have the virus ONLY AT THAT ASSISTED LIVING. The US has tested less people than China was testing in ONE DAY. Some people will tell you it's not a big deal because so many people die from other diseases, car accidents, disasters. It's a big deal because no one is immune. It could literally infect EVERYONE leaving the hospital unable to handle those who might be saved by treatment. The death rate is MUCH higher than the flu.

As for the Seattle area, movement of people is like a slow Sunday. People are not going out and this is seriously going to hurt the economy. I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime.

This move to ban travel from Europe is absolutely a mistake. The travel bans put in place by countries hasn't worked. Airline companies are already struggling, and this just makes things worse. Great, you've prevented people from coming into the country who are MAY already be sick but you've done absolutely nothing to deal with those who are walking around spreading COVID-19 in the US already.

The main problem in the US is there are not enough tests. Until that changes, the US is going to be unable to manage this crises. Look at Italy. If enough people start getting sick (and they will), hospitals will be unable to handle the mass of patients. Instead of banning travel, the best idea is to verify those coming into the country with tests. Ideally you would test EVERYONE at the slightest hint they may have it. Unfortunately they're are no tests to do so!

 

Just look at Iran and Italy. To stop this virus, you have to do what China did - lockdown a city, or actively test as many people as possible. China did both.

 

The US has had WEEKS to prepare, and it's like we are starting as if this whole thing was new as of one week ago. On the bright side, I'm willing to bet we will see some type of low this week. Whether that be preceded by a real, final crash or not. If we do crash, I'll be buying. I have a long time to live - if COVID-19 doesn't kill me!

 

I actually think the travel ban will be lifted before the 30 days are up. I'm long silver and some gold. We are definitely going to see de-valuing of the dollar and massive attempts to solve the manufactured recession by throwing as much printed money our cloth and ink reserves have.

Everyone has known, whether they denied it or not, that this President and the hacks in his Administration are utterly incompetent. It was just a matter of time before something came along to make it obvious. Unfortunately, it's a public health crisis when the wall should have been enough.


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#5 MikeyG

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 09:13 AM

I'll start by saying the panic we are seeing is somewhat overblown. With proper behavior and actions you can limit your expose to COVID-19. I still go to work, eat out, and buy what I want. I just go about my day with caution. However, if you are of poor health, older generation, or have are immunosuppressed you should very well avoid people. There are some schools which remained open last week and still had no known cases.
 
The majority of elderly people in the assistant living in Kirkland ended up dying at the hospital. (I live in Kirkland). It wasn't until a few days ago that there were enough tests to test those who were already known to have the virus ONLY AT THAT ASSISTED LIVING. The US has tested less people than China was testing in ONE DAY. Some people will tell you it's not a big deal because so many people die from other diseases, car accidents, disasters. It's a big deal because no one is immune. It could literally infect EVERYONE leaving the hospital unable to handle those who might be saved by treatment. The death rate is MUCH higher than the flu.

As for the Seattle area, movement of people is like a slow Sunday. People are not going out and this is seriously going to hurt the economy. I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime.

This move to ban travel from Europe is absolutely a mistake. The travel bans put in place by countries hasn't worked. Airline companies are already struggling, and this just makes things worse. Great, you've prevented people from coming into the country who are MAY already be sick but you've done absolutely nothing to deal with those who are walking around spreading COVID-19 in the US already.

The main problem in the US is there are not enough tests. Until that changes, the US is going to be unable to manage this crises. Look at Italy. If enough people start getting sick (and they will), hospitals will be unable to handle the mass of patients. Instead of banning travel, the best idea is to verify those coming into the country with tests. Ideally you would test EVERYONE at the slightest hint they may have it. Unfortunately they're are no tests to do so!
 
Just look at Iran and Italy. To stop this virus, you have to do what China did - lockdown a city, or actively test as many people as possible. China did both.
 
The US has had WEEKS to prepare, and it's like we are starting as if this whole thing was new as of one week ago. On the bright side, I'm willing to bet we will see some type of low this week. Whether that be preceded by a real, final crash or not. If we do crash, I'll be buying. I have a long time to live - if COVID-19 doesn't kill me!
 
I actually think the travel ban will be lifted before the 30 days are up. I'm long silver and some gold. We are definitely going to see de-valuing of the dollar and massive attempts to solve the manufactured recession by throwing as much printed money our cloth and ink reserves have.

Everyone has known, whether they denied it or not, that this President and the hacks in his Administration are utterly incompetent. It was just a matter of time before something came along to make it obvious. Unfortunately, it's a public health crisis when the wall should have been enough.

You would have said that no matter what the response was.

#6 ryanoo

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 09:19 AM

I think it's a good idea. The more we can flatten the bell curve, the better. 

 

I am not sure why they are saying testing is not available?

 

Someone in our office returned from Italy and had symptoms. They cleared out the office and gave her a test. 

 

Thank God, test came back negative. 

negative results can be positive later if tested again.  

travel history and symptoms should be taken seriously.



#7 MikeyG

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 09:45 AM

I think it's a good idea. The more we can flatten the bell curve, the better. 
 
I am not sure why they are saying testing is not available?
 
Someone in our office returned from Italy and had symptoms. They cleared out the office and gave her a test. 
 
Thank God, test came back negative. 

negative results can be positive later if tested again.  
travel history and symptoms should be taken seriously.

Yes, they released her from the hospital and told her to self quarantine.

Again, the test was available.

To say they are not available is not the truth.

#8 humbled

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 11:44 AM

 

 

I'll start by saying the panic we are seeing is somewhat overblown. With proper behavior and actions you can limit your expose to COVID-19. I still go to work, eat out, and buy what I want. I just go about my day with caution. However, if you are of poor health, older generation, or have are immunosuppressed you should very well avoid people. There are some schools which remained open last week and still had no known cases.
 
The majority of elderly people in the assistant living in Kirkland ended up dying at the hospital. (I live in Kirkland). It wasn't until a few days ago that there were enough tests to test those who were already known to have the virus ONLY AT THAT ASSISTED LIVING. The US has tested less people than China was testing in ONE DAY. Some people will tell you it's not a big deal because so many people die from other diseases, car accidents, disasters. It's a big deal because no one is immune. It could literally infect EVERYONE leaving the hospital unable to handle those who might be saved by treatment. The death rate is MUCH higher than the flu.

As for the Seattle area, movement of people is like a slow Sunday. People are not going out and this is seriously going to hurt the economy. I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime.

This move to ban travel from Europe is absolutely a mistake. The travel bans put in place by countries hasn't worked. Airline companies are already struggling, and this just makes things worse. Great, you've prevented people from coming into the country who are MAY already be sick but you've done absolutely nothing to deal with those who are walking around spreading COVID-19 in the US already.

The main problem in the US is there are not enough tests. Until that changes, the US is going to be unable to manage this crises. Look at Italy. If enough people start getting sick (and they will), hospitals will be unable to handle the mass of patients. Instead of banning travel, the best idea is to verify those coming into the country with tests. Ideally you would test EVERYONE at the slightest hint they may have it. Unfortunately they're are no tests to do so!
 
Just look at Iran and Italy. To stop this virus, you have to do what China did - lockdown a city, or actively test as many people as possible. China did both.
 
The US has had WEEKS to prepare, and it's like we are starting as if this whole thing was new as of one week ago. On the bright side, I'm willing to bet we will see some type of low this week. Whether that be preceded by a real, final crash or not. If we do crash, I'll be buying. I have a long time to live - if COVID-19 doesn't kill me!
 
I actually think the travel ban will be lifted before the 30 days are up. I'm long silver and some gold. We are definitely going to see de-valuing of the dollar and massive attempts to solve the manufactured recession by throwing as much printed money our cloth and ink reserves have.

Everyone has known, whether they denied it or not, that this President and the hacks in his Administration are utterly incompetent. It was just a matter of time before something came along to make it obvious. Unfortunately, it's a public health crisis when the wall should have been enough.

You would have said that no matter what the response was.

 

I can't speak for diogenes227, but I do know this. A month ago, when I saw the response at that time—in particular by the President, who has a unique position to lead us through times of crisis—it became clear to me a disaster was in the making. I was already partially short, because I expected a 5% to 10% correction. But I immediately went fully short. I have missed some of the decline. 1% here, 2% there, as I sold thinking it was surely time for a bounce. But I caught most of it. I truly believe the crash did not need to occur and could have been averted had the decisions and leadership from the White House been better. When I went fully short, I did not base that position on politics. I based it on my belief that denial, misinformation, withholding of information, and incompetent management were going to make a bad situation far worse than it needed to be.

 

All that said, I am looking to sell my short position (SPY puts and UVXY) in the next 24 hours and have begun accumulating some longs.


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#9 diogenes227

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 12:21 PM

 

 

 

I'll start by saying the panic we are seeing is somewhat overblown. With proper behavior and actions you can limit your expose to COVID-19. I still go to work, eat out, and buy what I want. I just go about my day with caution. However, if you are of poor health, older generation, or have are immunosuppressed you should very well avoid people. There are some schools which remained open last week and still had no known cases.
 
The majority of elderly people in the assistant living in Kirkland ended up dying at the hospital. (I live in Kirkland). It wasn't until a few days ago that there were enough tests to test those who were already known to have the virus ONLY AT THAT ASSISTED LIVING. The US has tested less people than China was testing in ONE DAY. Some people will tell you it's not a big deal because so many people die from other diseases, car accidents, disasters. It's a big deal because no one is immune. It could literally infect EVERYONE leaving the hospital unable to handle those who might be saved by treatment. The death rate is MUCH higher than the flu.

As for the Seattle area, movement of people is like a slow Sunday. People are not going out and this is seriously going to hurt the economy. I've never seen anything like this in my lifetime.

This move to ban travel from Europe is absolutely a mistake. The travel bans put in place by countries hasn't worked. Airline companies are already struggling, and this just makes things worse. Great, you've prevented people from coming into the country who are MAY already be sick but you've done absolutely nothing to deal with those who are walking around spreading COVID-19 in the US already.

The main problem in the US is there are not enough tests. Until that changes, the US is going to be unable to manage this crises. Look at Italy. If enough people start getting sick (and they will), hospitals will be unable to handle the mass of patients. Instead of banning travel, the best idea is to verify those coming into the country with tests. Ideally you would test EVERYONE at the slightest hint they may have it. Unfortunately they're are no tests to do so!
 
Just look at Iran and Italy. To stop this virus, you have to do what China did - lockdown a city, or actively test as many people as possible. China did both.
 
The US has had WEEKS to prepare, and it's like we are starting as if this whole thing was new as of one week ago. On the bright side, I'm willing to bet we will see some type of low this week. Whether that be preceded by a real, final crash or not. If we do crash, I'll be buying. I have a long time to live - if COVID-19 doesn't kill me!
 
I actually think the travel ban will be lifted before the 30 days are up. I'm long silver and some gold. We are definitely going to see de-valuing of the dollar and massive attempts to solve the manufactured recession by throwing as much printed money our cloth and ink reserves have.

Everyone has known, whether they denied it or not, that this President and the hacks in his Administration are utterly incompetent. It was just a matter of time before something came along to make it obvious. Unfortunately, it's a public health crisis when the wall should have been enough.

You would have said that no matter what the response was.

 

I can't speak for diogenes227, but I do know this. A month ago, when I saw the response at that time—in particular by the President, who has a unique position to lead us through times of crisis—it became clear to me a disaster was in the making. I was already partially short, because I expected a 5% to 10% correction. But I immediately went fully short. I have missed some of the decline. 1% here, 2% there, as I sold thinking it was surely time for a bounce. But I caught most of it. I truly believe the crash did not need to occur and could have been averted had the decisions and leadership from the White House been better. When I went fully short, I did not base that position on politics. I based it on my belief that denial, misinformation, withholding of information, and incompetent management were going to make a bad situation far worse than it needed to be.

 

All that said, I am looking to sell my short position (SPY puts and UVXY) in the next 24 hours and have begun accumulating some longs.

 

clapping.gifclapping.gifclapping.gif


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#10 orange

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Posted 12 March 2020 - 05:13 PM

I think it's a good idea. The more we can flatten the bell curve, the better. 

 

I am not sure why they are saying testing is not available?

 

Someone in our office returned from Italy and had symptoms. They cleared out the office and gave her a test. 

 

Thank God, test came back negative. 

I don't know what state or city you're in, but in the Seattle Greater Eastside there has not been enough tests available. It took over a week just to get enough to test those in the assisted living center. That was at the beginning of the week though.


Edited by orange, 12 March 2020 - 05:13 PM.

"When your position is underwater, average down" - Trader Bob





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