Jump to content



Photo

Lower for L0nger, new Trading environment, SPX 1800 next target


  • Please log in to reply
15 replies to this topic

#1 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,181 posts

Posted 22 March 2020 - 07:29 AM

While I put FA at the top, closely followed by TA, this is now a new trading environment where News and world events are 

fr more important and influence the markets faster than TA, FA etc. 

 

Logic and reasoning dictate lower markets for longer in a unpredictable trading era. It  could be the start of a new economy with totally different trading operations and rules. 

 

SPX 1800 is my next major target. 

 

The unthinkable is that SPX 666 generational and epochal low. 

 

Never sat never when we know not what tomorrow brings....

 

Holding a small VOO and XLF LONG position and CRUDE CALLS

 

Would not mind much lower markets to add more LT 



#2 pdx5

pdx5

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,909 posts

Posted 22 March 2020 - 08:53 AM

Buying every dip over 3% in SPX, with intention of holding 2+ years.

Good thing I left some cash on the side lines for occasions like this and did not buy anything for 2 years.

This is like grabbing merchandise on going out of business clearance sale.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#3 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,181 posts

Posted 22 March 2020 - 10:36 AM

Buying every dip over 3% in SPX, with intention of holding 2+ years.

Good thing I left some cash on the side lines for occasions like this and did not buy anything for 2 years.

This is like grabbing merchandise on going out of business clearance sale.

 

I also want to buy and I expect to be under the water for a while but while I cannot predict the bottom I want to see signs of less selling and more visibility. 
A good time for this is when earnings and warnings etc for Q1 begin to emerge and then the reaction from the market. 

BUT, I will add at lower SPX levels if there is extreme selling, dumping etc and much more bearishness than this is almost total absence of dp buying. 

 

There is still not enough bearishness and too much dip buying



#4 K Wave

K Wave

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,601 posts

Posted 22 March 2020 - 10:43 AM

 

Buying every dip over 3% in SPX, with intention of holding 2+ years.

Good thing I left some cash on the side lines for occasions like this and did not buy anything for 2 years.

This is like grabbing merchandise on going out of business clearance sale.

 

I also want to buy and I expect to be under the water for a while but while I cannot predict the bottom I want to see signs of less selling and more visibility. 
A good time for this is when earnings and warnings etc for Q1 begin to emerge and then the reaction from the market. 

BUT, I will add at lower SPX levels if there is extreme selling, dumping etc and much more bearishness than this is almost total absence of dp buying. 

 

There is still not enough bearishness and too much dip buying

 

Peak panic was on the 18th...many stocks that saw massive panic selling on 18th ended up higher on the 20th (some substantially higher)

 

Any lower lows in indexes should be bought aggressively.

 

Once this down wave that started Friday afternoon is done, should be huge mutli-day rally to kick things off upside..

 

This virus panic is on its last legs now.

 

Rates now a at zero, and Yuge stimulus going to hit soon....


Edited by K Wave, 22 March 2020 - 10:43 AM.


#5 brucekeller

brucekeller

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 796 posts

Posted 22 March 2020 - 11:00 AM

 

 

Buying every dip over 3% in SPX, with intention of holding 2+ years.

Good thing I left some cash on the side lines for occasions like this and did not buy anything for 2 years.

This is like grabbing merchandise on going out of business clearance sale.

 

I also want to buy and I expect to be under the water for a while but while I cannot predict the bottom I want to see signs of less selling and more visibility. 
A good time for this is when earnings and warnings etc for Q1 begin to emerge and then the reaction from the market. 

BUT, I will add at lower SPX levels if there is extreme selling, dumping etc and much more bearishness than this is almost total absence of dp buying. 

 

There is still not enough bearishness and too much dip buying

 

Peak panic was on the 18th...many stocks that saw massive panic selling on 18th ended up higher on the 20th (some substantially higher)

 

Any lower lows in indexes should be bought aggressively.

 

Once this down wave that started Friday afternoon is done, should be huge mutli-day rally to kick things off upside..

 

This virus panic is on its last legs now.

 

Rates now a at zero, and Yuge stimulus going to hit soon....

 

 

What a coincidence Fed's PD's start buying on Thursday with no restrictions. 



#6 dasein

dasein

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,677 posts

Posted 22 March 2020 - 12:28 PM

agree ST panic is abt over - but we will get another one


best,
klh

#7 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 10,218 posts

Posted 22 March 2020 - 12:42 PM

I don't think the VIX divergence is all about the fund margin call.



#8 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,181 posts

Posted 22 March 2020 - 12:56 PM

Maybe in terms of SENTIMENT the worse is over but we have not seen the important data items since the situations worsened and the markets crashed. 

 

Until the market gets the data and analyzed then I am not calling any market low. 

 

Who predicted a large negative Q1 and Q2 GDP?  JPM? 



#9 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,181 posts

Posted 22 March 2020 - 12:58 PM

This is a shocking GDP forecast! Combine with OIL below $20 and bad earnings/guidance.... SPX 1500 is highly probable

 

JP Morgan economist says US GDP could drop 14% in ...
Reuters-18 Mar 2020
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The U.S. economy could shrink 14% next quarter, a JP Morgan economist said on Wednesday, one of the most ...


#10 dTraderB

dTraderB

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,181 posts

Posted 22 March 2020 - 01:01 PM

Opinion: How to Save Main Street, Before It’s Too Late

 

Published: March 22, 2020 at 1:17 p.m. ET

https://www.marketwa...d=mw_latestnews