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Lower for L0nger, new Trading environment, SPX 1800 next target


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#11 dTraderB

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 01:02 PM

As Dow wipes out over 3 years of stock-market gains, here’s a warning about calling the bottom

 

Published: March 22, 2020 at 9:48 a.m. ET Resist the temptation, say Wall Street pros

 

https://www.marketwa...cle_top_stories



#12 dTraderB

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 01:04 PM

OK, this will produce a bounce..... but only for a day or two

 

https://www.marketwa...cle_top_stories



#13 Dex

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 02:05 PM

Buying every dip over 3% in SPX, with intention of holding 2+ years.

Good thing I left some cash on the side lines for occasions like this and did not buy anything for 2 years.

This is like grabbing merchandise on going out of business clearance sale.

 

Before the decline I was 54% in cash with the rest in High Yield Munnis and Emerging Market High Yield bonds.

 

Cash is down to 44%.

 

I have plans to be fully invested.

 

I've have most of my wanted position in XLE and REM.

 

I'm watching and will be putting more in.  


"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
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#14 Dex

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 02:07 PM

 

 

Buying every dip over 3% in SPX, with intention of holding 2+ years.

Good thing I left some cash on the side lines for occasions like this and did not buy anything for 2 years.

This is like grabbing merchandise on going out of business clearance sale.

 

I also want to buy and I expect to be under the water for a while but while I cannot predict the bottom I want to see signs of less selling and more visibility. 
A good time for this is when earnings and warnings etc for Q1 begin to emerge and then the reaction from the market. 

BUT, I will add at lower SPX levels if there is extreme selling, dumping etc and much more bearishness than this is almost total absence of dp buying. 

 

There is still not enough bearishness and too much dip buying

 

Peak panic was on the 18th...many stocks that saw massive panic selling on 18th ended up higher on the 20th (some substantially higher)

 

Any lower lows in indexes should be bought aggressively.

 

Once this down wave that started Friday afternoon is done, should be huge mutli-day rally to kick things off upside..

 

This virus panic is on its last legs now.

 

Rates now a at zero, and Yuge stimulus going to hit soon....

 

Agree.  When good news begins to come out it could be a rocket ride.


"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
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#15 dTraderB

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 03:41 PM

30%  !!
 

Bullard on March 6: Markets seem to be pricing in the worst outcome and it's not warranted, slowdown will be temporary.

Bullard today: Unemployment at 30% would be a success

 



#16 dTraderB

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 03:45 PM

 
That 2016 SPX double bottom is next target

Breaking down this sell-off, among the most extreme and rare Wall Street has ever seen
KEY POINTS
  • Some investors sounded alarms about the Covid-19 outbreak as it hit China, but the brutality of the equity-market sell-off has been so extreme and rare, no one would dare have predicted it in detail.
  • Trillions of dollars in investment strategies premised on muted volatility, ample demand for corporate credit, an inverse relationship between stock and bond prices and ample liquidity have come unspooled.
  • Trend-following hedge funds are heavily short this market, which makes sense and remains a source of downside pressure unless and until a major rally or policy move interrupts the adverse feedback loop.
  • We’re at a point where the market needs to rally soon to interrupt the mechanistic selling spiral.

 

https://www.cnbc.com...-ever-seen.html