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#11 K Wave

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 04:43 PM

https://www.statnews...-reliable-data/

 

Italy and Spain beg to differ with this epidemiologist"s take.  However, to put things in perspective, the annual death rate for influenza in the US is about 0.1%.  So far Covid 19 has claimed 1% of the infected in the US.  Therefore, one could say Covid 19 is about 10 times more lethal than influenza.  If that is the case, then measures taken and more severe measures coming are very appropriate and necessary.

That's absurd.

 

The Flu .1 % is based on estimated total flu cases, not confirmed & tested cases.

FYI...estimated 38 million flu cases this season (low end), actually tested confirmed 231K. Estimated deaths from latest report at 23K, so estimated mortality around .061% this season at the high end.

Therefore, estimated people infected versus actually tested & confirmed is about 164X.

 

Now apply just 100X to Covid, or even just 50X, and tell me what your death rate is....rolleyes.gif


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#12 K Wave

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 04:50 PM

Yes but if the measures are appropriate now then why did they not take these measures in 1969 during the Hong Kong Flu, when 1 million people died in 1 year  time frame ?  Nothing was shut down then or quarantines.

 

https://en.wikipedia...68_flu_pandemic

 

So now they are shutting down the whole world, but back then nothing was shut down ??? why ????

 

That tells me that this virus now is more a trigger mechanism for what was already an overdue cyclical decline due and a huge debt crisis which we are engaging in now.

I think part of this one is that it is the first real "Social Media" pandemic, and all those videos out of China scared the crap out of people.

 

It is highly likely this is not going to end up any worse than say the swine flu, which had an estimated 60 million cases in USA with 12K deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/...s_2009_h1n1.htm


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#13 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 05:09 PM

 

https://www.statnews...-reliable-data/
 
Italy and Spain beg to differ with this epidemiologist"s take.  However, to put things in perspective, the annual death rate for influenza in the US is about 0.1%.  So far Covid 19 has claimed 1% of the infected in the US.  Therefore, one could say Covid 19 is about 10 times more lethal than influenza.  If that is the case, then measures taken and more severe measures coming are very appropriate and necessary.


What about the cases that are not counted, with those factored in, its lower than 1 percent.

 

I think it's MUCH lower. I'm eyeballing 0.125%.

 

M


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#14 Steaktaco

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 05:40 PM

 

 

https://www.statnews...-reliable-data/
 
Italy and Spain beg to differ with this epidemiologist"s take.  However, to put things in perspective, the annual death rate for influenza in the US is about 0.1%.  So far Covid 19 has claimed 1% of the infected in the US.  Therefore, one could say Covid 19 is about 10 times more lethal than influenza.  If that is the case, then measures taken and more severe measures coming are very appropriate and necessary.


What about the cases that are not counted, with those factored in, its lower than 1 percent.

 

I think it's MUCH lower. I'm eyeballing 0.125%.

 

M

 

I agree, wait til more tests keep coming in positive.  If the media would only focus on positives instead of creating additional panic.  Not one good news story is reported from them.  When that stimulus gets passed and curve flattens within a week we are off to the races in the markets.  Might not look back.

 

This is a pretty good read.

 

https://www.zerohedg...e-over-hysteria



#15 Regent

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 08:12 PM

I cant see how anyone can say Covid 19 isnt way more dangerous than influenza.  Italy had just had 5000 of its citizens die within the last 6 weeks.  Flu never had that kind of impact over such a short time.

 

In 2019 Italy reported only 240 deaths from influenza.  There were about 2,900,000 confirmed cases.

 

https://www.thelocal...-down-in-a-week


Edited by Regent, 22 March 2020 - 08:17 PM.

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#16 CLK

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 08:23 PM

I cant see how anyone can say Covid 19 isnt way more dangerous than influenza.  Italy had just had 5000 of its citizens die within the last 6 weeks.  Flu never had that kind of impact over such a short time.

 

In 2019 Italy reported only 240 deaths from influenza.  There were about 2,900,000 confirmed cases.

 

https://www.thelocal...-down-in-a-week

 

 

That's a good point, a lot of deaths in a short time. There is still a lot of time left in this year.



#17 K Wave

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 09:23 PM

I cant see how anyone can say Covid 19 isnt way more dangerous than influenza.  Italy had just had 5000 of its citizens die within the last 6 weeks.  Flu never had that kind of impact over such a short time.

 

In 2019 Italy reported only 240 deaths from influenza.  There were about 2,900,000 confirmed cases.

 

https://www.thelocal...-down-in-a-week

Could have to do with the fact the only 3 victims in this sample did not have pre-existing health conditions.

So could be that this virus does hit those who are already compromised harder than the flu.

 

https://www.bloomber...ness-italy-says


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#18 MikeyG

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Posted 22 March 2020 - 09:37 PM

Italy is a worse case scenario

#19 Sooth

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 06:32 AM

 

With all the asymptomatic cases one has to wonder what the mortality rate is with this.

Exactly....

 

https://www.statnews...-reliable-data/

 

The author, John Ioannidis MD is "Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences."

 

He writes, "reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%."

 

The annual death rate for U.S. in 2019 was 8.782 deaths per 1000 people. Extrapolating from that, onto the estimated current populations of the US and New York City, I calculate that about 7942 Americans die on an average day, and about 452 New Yorkers  die on an average day, without any ongoing viral pandemic.

 

When the media hysterically announces, "X deaths from coronavirus were reported in Y today!!!", I consider it in that context.



#20 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 23 March 2020 - 08:48 AM

I cant see how anyone can say Covid 19 isnt way more dangerous than influenza.  Italy had just had 5000 of its citizens die within the last 6 weeks.  Flu never had that kind of impact over such a short time.

 

In 2019 Italy reported only 240 deaths from influenza.  There were about 2,900,000 confirmed cases.

 

https://www.thelocal...-down-in-a-week

Italy over-counts the Covid case deaths. [corrected by me. sorry!]

Meanwhile, look at the Diamond Princess, which is really our only good data sample. 8 deaths. That's in a population of much older (and thus at-risk) people, generally.

 

Also, the rate of serious infection was just 15.

How 83% of the passengers and crew managed to NOT get the virus in two weeks on a cruise ship eludes me, but it sure does seem like good news.

https://wattsupwitht...UFs-Njp0Onkj3L0

 

https://www.cebm.net...8FRlwtycsNAkhIw

 

Mark


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