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Is there anyone here that can make a strong technical case for a full retest?


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#1 CLK

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 12:45 PM

Markets go up with time, so long positions should be fine from here.

 

If it does retest or lower lows, that would be a better buying opportunity, but so far,

I don't see any technical evidence that the 2200 level will be retested for sure, 

fundamentals don't matter, cycles pinpoint turns maybe, but not direction or magnitude.


Edited by CLK, 17 May 2020 - 12:48 PM.


#2 Dex

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 01:01 PM

Weekly and daily say we are in a trading range.  You can't tell which way it will break. 

The S&P is heavily influenced by and being held up by tech companies which is doing well vs other stocks.

The RUT broke an uptrend line BUT you could also say it was in a trading range.

I think the RUT will show the market direction before the S&P

 

I think we will know in about 4 months from the March low.

 

 

https://www.statista...lued-in-sp-500/

 

 


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#3 pdx5

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 01:08 PM

Virus Panic is over. Hospitalizations are in downtrend. S Korea & Sweden, who remained open have done no worse.

2200 unlikely to be tested again. My patience is wearing thin to keep 30% cash on sidelines.

I will phase in buying longs in 5 steps over 2 weeks, picking down days.

 

Keeping portion of my portfolio in high yield (junk) bond funds kept my portfolio from losing more than 15% at 2200. Now I am down may be 2% from previous high. Enough is enough, going fully long over 2 week period, and will not trade again for a couple of years. With all the Monopoly money pushed into circulation, cash is not the king anymore. S&P500 baby!


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#4 LMF

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 01:34 PM

Perhaps some good answers out there......but in one case, there are likely good reasons why the AAPL price chart has yet to show a bearish MA cross this year, 40 day below the 200 day MA. Like it did multiple times back during the 2008 debacle.....the Sept 2008 instance being the worst one imaginable back then. What are those reasons. I can just trust the theory that price knows the most information out there.....and Im usually at the opposite end of that scale. At some point down the road, this could change for the worse. But that day aint here yet......

Edited by LMF, 17 May 2020 - 01:37 PM.


#5 K Wave

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 01:40 PM

Virus Panic is over. Hospitalizations are in downtrend. S Korea & Sweden, who remained open have done no worse.

2200 unlikely to be tested again. My patience is wearing thin to keep 30% cash on sidelines.

I will phase in buying longs in 5 steps over 2 weeks, picking down days.

 

Keeping portion of my portfolio in high yield (junk) bond funds kept my portfolio from losing more than 15% at 2200. Now I am down may be 2% from previous high. Enough is enough, going fully long over 2 week period, and will not trade again for a couple of years. With all the Monopoly money pushed into circulation, cash is not the king anymore. S&P500 baby!

23700 area still looks like the dividing line to me...if we blast off on Monday, then could finally be done messing around with this area.

 

But until we convincingly reclaim that daily 900 MA just above where we are now, not ruling out a decline from here...

As it stands right now, I could even make a case for an H&S top on Dow, with the head peeking out over the top of the Daily 900.

Until we we take out that right shoulder upside, too early to say retest out of the question.

 

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#6 CLK

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 02:11 PM

NYMO reached 120, not seen since the 2009 lows, 2019 was close, no retest on those declines.

If breadth had not been very high after the lows, then I would say maybe a full retest, but that did not happen.

I think 2700 is worse case on the downside, unfortunately, I won't be adding to longs there, not cheap enough.

 

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Edited by CLK, 17 May 2020 - 02:11 PM.


#7 CLK

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 02:34 PM

Technically, you can say 2009 made a lower low, but it hadn't bounced to .618 yet, like now.



#8 blackcloud

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 03:00 PM

Virus Panic is over. Hospitalizations are in downtrend. S Korea & Sweden, who remained open have done no worse.

2200 unlikely to be tested again. My patience is wearing thin to keep 30% cash on sidelines.

I will phase in buying longs in 5 steps over 2 weeks, picking down days.

 

Keeping portion of my portfolio in high yield (junk) bond funds kept my portfolio from losing more than 15% at 2200. Now I am down may be 2% from previous high. Enough is enough, going fully long over 2 week period, and will not trade again for a couple of years. With all the Monopoly money pushed into circulation, cash is not the king anymore. S&P500 baby!

If the virus disappears tomorrow, which it will not unfortunately, you then have to deal with the aftermath.  Have you ever seen the entire world shut down for months, what is the aftermath??  Does

anyone know for sure.  We have one vendor that we had 4 pre-books for this year, 2 of those have been pushed back TEN MONTHS!  Imagine that on a larger scale.  You have governors in certain

states that are waiting for some date in November to open, or 14 days will no covid deaths to open.  Don't confuse the down sloping virus numbers with economic conditions, 2 completely separate 

deals, imo.



#9 pdx5

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 03:16 PM

 

If the virus disappears tomorrow, which it will not unfortunately, you then have to deal with the aftermath.  Have you ever seen the entire world shut down for months, what is the aftermath??  Does

anyone know for sure.  We have one vendor that we had 4 pre-books for this year, 2 of those have been pushed back TEN MONTHS!  Imagine that on a larger scale.  You have governors in certain

states that are waiting for some date in November to open, or 14 days will no covid deaths to open.  Don't confuse the down sloping virus numbers with economic conditions, 2 completely separate 

deals, imo.

 

Stock market should be looking at scenario 6 months ahead, which is the 4th quarter.

No question results of 2nd quarter will look horrible. 

3rd quarter will also be ugly.

But if market stays positive from here it is signaling a rebound in 4th quarter.

 

I am NOT a short term trader. If I was, my golf handicap would have stayed above 20+

Trading long term (3-5 years) has given me time to lower my handicap to single digits at age 75 when

I was getting close to breaking my age. Now at age 80, I don't like golf anymore. It is now treadmill only.

I am always looking at 3 years ahead when buying or selling.

So based on that what should I be sitting on MM dollars in cash or SP500 index funds.

I am reaching the conclusion SP500 is a better place for my money at end of 3 years.


Edited by pdx5, 17 May 2020 - 03:17 PM.

"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#10 pdx5

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 03:29 PM

 

Virus Panic is over. Hospitalizations are in downtrend. S Korea & Sweden, who remained open have done no worse.

2200 unlikely to be tested again. My patience is wearing thin to keep 30% cash on sidelines.

I will phase in buying longs in 5 steps over 2 weeks, picking down days.

 

Keeping portion of my portfolio in high yield (junk) bond funds kept my portfolio from losing more than 15% at 2200. Now I am down may be 2% from previous high. Enough is enough, going fully long over 2 week period, and will not trade again for a couple of years. With all the Monopoly money pushed into circulation, cash is not the king anymore. S&P500 baby!

23700 area still looks like the dividing line to me...if we blast off on Monday, then could finally be done messing around with this area.

 

But until we convincingly reclaim that daily 900 MA just above where we are now, not ruling out a decline from here...

As it stands right now, I could even make a case for an H&S top on Dow, with the head peeking out over the top of the Daily 900.

Until we we take out that right shoulder upside, too early to say retest out of the question.

 

dji.png

 

Thank you for your valuable insights as usual.

Main reason I am going in all out in next 2 weeks is because my estimate is we will be higher in 2 or 3 years.

Once I am all in, I won't even check market very often.

I am more worried about left holding the bag of cash for 3 years while the market (SP500) is much higher.

And yes, there will be lot of volatility during 2020.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule