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Is there anyone here that can make a strong technical case for a full retest?


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#11 Dex

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 04:11 PM

 

 

If the virus disappears tomorrow, which it will not unfortunately, you then have to deal with the aftermath.  Have you ever seen the entire world shut down for months, what is the aftermath??  Does

anyone know for sure.  We have one vendor that we had 4 pre-books for this year, 2 of those have been pushed back TEN MONTHS!  Imagine that on a larger scale.  You have governors in certain

states that are waiting for some date in November to open, or 14 days will no covid deaths to open.  Don't confuse the down sloping virus numbers with economic conditions, 2 completely separate 

deals, imo.

 

Stock market should be looking at scenario 6 months ahead, which is the 4th quarter.

No question results of 2nd quarter will look horrible. 

3rd quarter will also be ugly.

But if market stays positive from here it is signaling a rebound in 4th quarter.

 

I am NOT a short term trader. If I was, my golf handicap would have stayed above 20+

Trading long term (3-5 years) has given me time to lower my handicap to single digits at age 75 when

I was getting close to breaking my age. Now at age 80, I don't like golf anymore. It is now treadmill only.

I am always looking at 3 years ahead when buying or selling.

So based on that what should I be sitting on MM dollars in cash or SP500 index funds.

I am reaching the conclusion SP500 is a better place for my money at end of 3 years.

 

 

In 3 years the s&p has a good chance of being where it is now.

 

Put your money in HYD and go on your cruse. 


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17_16


#12 K Wave

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 05:48 PM

How anyone who's brain is actually functioning is still worried about the virus past the next few weeks is beyond me...

 

Look at Germany, Italy, Spain etc,....it is on its very last legs there...USA is likely a week and half to 2 weeks behind....

 

https://www.worldome...ountry/germany/

 

USA printed a 1.056 yesterday, and looks like it will be even lower today, guesstimate about 1.013...

The 2nd half of May is going to crush this thing even more than the first half already has.

 

Absolutely no reason the country could not open up entirely at this point.

 

Was out at lot of stores today... looks like mask usage has dropped from about 75% last week to about 50% this week.

Probably about 25% next week, and only a few percent the weeks after that....only the ones who truly lives their lives in fear at that point...some may wear them all summer long though the 90-100 degree Texas heat.dunce.gif


Edited by K Wave, 17 May 2020 - 05:49 PM.

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#13 K Wave

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 06:02 PM

I have been tracking the number of states above with zero, below, 5 below 10, below 20 deaths since about May 10 when I expected the May effect to really start to take hold.

 

We started out at 28 states below 20, yesterday it went to 35, and today looks like it will be 40.

 

Looks like we have highest under 10 count as well at likely 32, after starting out at 21.


Edited by K Wave, 17 May 2020 - 06:02 PM.

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#14 slupert

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 06:04 PM

Devils advocate, over priced market, Mom n Pop investors are convinced Spring is here, the grand reopening of America! Breakout to over 3000 Spx, grand opening destined to overwhelm, the boys bought the rumor  a long time ago, you know what comes next. Kaboom!! Avalanche! Spx retraces all the way to 5-6% above March 23 low.(JMHO)



#15 Dex

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 06:21 PM

Devils advocate, over priced market, Mom n Pop investors are convinced Spring is here, the grand reopening of America! Breakout to over 3000 Spx, grand opening destined to overwhelm, the boys bought the rumor  a long time ago, you know what comes next. Kaboom!! Avalanche! Spx retraces all the way to 5-6% above March 23 low.(JMHO)

I have 2250 as the rising wedge goal.  So, we're in the same ball park.

 


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#16 pdx5

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 06:24 PM

Devils advocate, over priced market, Mom n Pop investors are convinced Spring is here, the grand reopening of America! Breakout to over 3000 Spx, grand opening destined to overwhelm, the boys bought the rumor  a long time ago, you know what comes next. Kaboom!! Avalanche! Spx retraces all the way to 5-6% above March 23 low.(JMHO)

Spring is a long ways away, but what is already here is $3,000,000,000,000 in monopoly money in circulation.

And they are pushing for $3,000,000,000,000 more monopoly money bill which has more words like "cannabis" in it than "covid-19".

 

Nah, I do not wish to hold on to cash at this stage of political initiatives. Stocks can go up simply to offset the cheaper dollars.


Edited by pdx5, 17 May 2020 - 06:26 PM.

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#17 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 06:32 PM

Guys, as much as I find the virus issue fascinating and possibly market moving, it is also tainted with politics. Also, technically it's off topic. I think it's reasonable to limit these discussions to their own threads and to try not to annoy folks who do want to stay strictly to the technicals.

With me?

 

Mark


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#18 da_cheif

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Posted 17 May 2020 - 06:43 PM

Guys, as much as I find the virus issue fascinating and possibly market moving, it is also tainted with politics. Also, technically it's off topic. I think it's reasonable to limit these discussions to their own threads and to try not to annoy folks who do want to stay strictly to the technicals.

With me?

 

Mark

never happen on this board i hope......bearish sentimet is a great reflection of the wall of worry....watch the sky 2022 ono



#19 K Wave

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Posted 18 May 2020 - 08:04 AM

 

Virus Panic is over. Hospitalizations are in downtrend. S Korea & Sweden, who remained open have done no worse.

2200 unlikely to be tested again. My patience is wearing thin to keep 30% cash on sidelines.

I will phase in buying longs in 5 steps over 2 weeks, picking down days.

 

Keeping portion of my portfolio in high yield (junk) bond funds kept my portfolio from losing more than 15% at 2200. Now I am down may be 2% from previous high. Enough is enough, going fully long over 2 week period, and will not trade again for a couple of years. With all the Monopoly money pushed into circulation, cash is not the king anymore. S&P500 baby!

23700 area still looks like the dividing line to me...if we blast off on Monday, then could finally be done messing around with this area.

 

But until we convincingly reclaim that daily 900 MA just above where we are now, not ruling out a decline from here...

As it stands right now, I could even make a case for an H&S top on Dow, with the head peeking out over the top of the Daily 900.

Until we we take out that right shoulder upside, too early to say retest out of the question.

 

dji.png

 

 

Looks like that right shoulder going to be under serious threat of being breached today....

 

If it goes bye bye, the Base Camp at 23700 is likely about to be left behind as the assault on the summit continues....


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#20 CLK

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Posted 18 May 2020 - 10:44 AM

NYMO is divergent at mid-day, so SPX needs to pull back, then maybe some follow through tomorrow.

I doubt NYSI will turn up, but maybe it will, I have a low bid order in for more longs, I don't want to pay the ask though

because NYSI may not turn back up.

 

http://schrts.co/mqaZhJZu

 

 

Anyone know how to manually calculate NYSI in real time? I tried to go by the formula but I don't get the right number.

 

 

https://www.metastoc...rces/taaz/?p=69


Edited by CLK, 18 May 2020 - 10:48 AM.